Member Info for MadasaHat

on HL Bid/Ask 28.65/29.00! MMs want the shares.

GGITS

You noted something strange going on with the SP. It has done it again today. HL showing SP drops and the Bid goes up another 0.25p!

It is so becalmed there's no real pressure from either buys or sells tbh. So is it just MMs tweaking to prompt some, just any, action? Or something else? Grateful for your thoughts.

Regards

Madasahat

Agreed. Quoted 28.29 to buy on HL, 27.895 to sell

Alfacomp

Thanks. I was trying to work out the difference between V2O5 and V and you kindly obliged. Appreciated.

Regards

Madasahat

Here you go:

http://www.largoresources.com/investors/news/press-release-details/2018/Largo-Resources-Reports-Record-Second-Quarter-2018-Cash-Flows-Before-Non-Cash-Working-Capital-Items-of-777-Million-on-Revenues-of-1033-Million/default.aspx

Average Vanadium Pentoxide (V2O5) price of ~US$15.44/lb V2O5 in Q2 2018 ($34039.33 per tonne.

Regards

Madasahat

Jamiejojo. I think that is pretty unrealistic to be honest. 30p maybe. I will be delighted though to come back at the end of the week and eat my words...

Regards

Madasahat

Agreed though JM has to save face. Imagine if he had increased it to 75p from 25p in one go. That would be a real admission that his first rating was utter rubbish. This allows him to revisit it again (after H1 results) without looking too out of touch with an equity he is covering.

Regards

Madasahat

Hi Alfacomp

There will always be some "investors" who don't do research. That will be "the herd". Watch for them to arrive after some lazy journalism in the daily mail or such like after H1 results. So whilst they might not have an impact now they are likely to at some point.

I agree the current investors are indeed well informed - thanks to you and the other contributors here on the TBP the likes of which I can honestly say I have never found before.

Regards

Madasahat

Thanks Pdub

A broker rating can never be the sole decision point but it does go some way to contributing to the decision process - if only to compare the fundamentals against the current SP and then the forecast. It all paints the picture and for BMN is part of "the market just doesn't really get this yet".

Regards

Madasahat

Hi Pdub

This is opinion rather than a quantitative theory. I hope you don't mind that. This BB (I hope) is about sharing those.

Buyer behaviour in the absence of news is never completely certain. This is something that will play out over the next few days as all buyers need confidence and it depends on when they receive that information and how long they take to do their own research. Personally I would think that 4% up today with continued progression this week, confirmed with the Q2 update.

So if you believe there is no correlation are you saying we could move up to 34p with SP Angel still saying 25p? Were an investor coming to invest for the first time - certainly without access to this board and TBP so my "theory" goes would be reluctant to invest what on the face of it looks like "over the odds".

However, I am now expecting for it to finish only 2% up at which point you may take the opportunity to rubbish it...

Hi Pdub,

Why? if no-one felt there was a link between current SP and broker rating there wouldn't have been so many getting so worked up about it. They are supposed to lead and inform the market rather than play catch up with the reality in front of their eyes. So if that is what they have done then that is a poor show. Either way, however, none of us are complaining!

Yes, the Vanadium prices are driving it. Being somewhat more cautious in outlook myself even I do feel uncertain sometimes about the statements made here about $100+. None of us know for certain and it would be great (I think) if it happens as long as structurally high prices don't actually deter the VFRB progress. Although, as the analysis shows that isn't even in the SP anyway...

So the new broker note gives an upgrade and the SP move up seems to be cemented. Coincidence? I think not. Reinforces what others have been saying on this BB that the (now previous) 25p target was limiting the SP.

mopping up the chunky sells of 200k and 150k. The 50k seller is still here it seems. And still maintaining strength in the SP currently.

creeping up - 28/28.5. MMs definitely want the shares this morning.

The MMs want your shares now for a reason that suits them...

Hi 600T

No money need be on it. Closest "wins" - closing SP. Just for the "honour" of calling it right.

My guess 20 December 2019 - date linked to Harvey licence and plus gas should be flowing.

Regards

Madashat

Hi 600T

I would be delighted with £4 though I won't get to be a millionaire although I would take £400k in my ISA and £300k in my SIPP any day! I guess some on here would be a millionaire many times over though with deeper pockets and holding for longer.

I really do need to develop more patience though.

Should we run a sweep on the date for the £1 SP?

All the best

GLA

Madashat

600T

Well as I am bored of waiting too and as you were dreaming, I have tried get out of my head that MR turned £1M in CH4 into a buyout for £156M and then decided to apply it to IOG...

I don't know what the initial investment was back in 2011 - I can't see what the market cap was on entry on 30 Sept 13 but let's say £5M. Dreaming that MR could achieve the same ratio of 1:156 this gives a market cap of £780M.

We are now at a cap of £34.5M at a SP of 28p - £780M gives us 22 times from here giving us an SP of £6.33 (undiluted)!

Maybe the FID will double the equity therefore this dilutes to roughly £3.00. That would be some way off mind! 2023?

Now any and all these numbers could be (almost certainly given many on this BB know much more than me) are complete and utter rubbish and make the assumption that the basis of the 2 businesses are in any way comparable but even after a beer or two it doesn't feel completely out of the question... :-)

In the meantime...time to sober up and back to the current reality.

How does that compare to your dream?!!!

Madasahat

@Alfacomp, LS and MTB - many thanks for responses. Really useful insight again.

What this demonstrates (to me at least) is that there is no substitute for using top grade Vanadium in VRFBs. If only there was a company who could supply loads of that...oh hang on there is...

So back in 2015 that article was suggesting Imergy had got this cracked. What happened?