Member Info for MadasaHat

GG Agreed on your expectation for the SP for 12 months time. If the project has progressed as we hope/expect then this will have further de-risked the opportunity. 50p is fully risked so with the project de-risked if this isn't 48p (3x current SP) in 12 months time then I would disappointed. And looking at the finncap report with revenue of �400M and earnings of �250M in 2021 and 53% net margin given the current market cap of under �20M even allowing for full dilution 2021 EPS of 86p suggests where the SP could go if the stars really are aligned... Delays reduce the NPV of the proposition so it really is key we hold to the timelines now though. Hopefully if the pigging could confirm minimal re-work compared to baseline assumptions then if we could pull this back to Q3 2019 that would be even better. I would like to think this isn't seen as ramping but explaining my expectation here and why i am in and staying.

Agreed Shatter...the proof of the pudding... The other potential SP drivers this year will be EMA approval of Kymriah for these indications plus Orchard Therapeutics submitting a BLA to the NDA and some move (very long overdue) for s spin out or SPV to take ProSavin II forward. We absolutely have to get away from the jam tomorrow in terms of reporting an annual profit - which the last set of results pushed back another year from what we were expecting only 6 months ago. For those with patience though in 2-3 years time the potential is very good indeed and that's when any buy out is likely to happen IMHO.

Doubt it. This was expected and overdue. Knowing how this share behaves it might spike to this and then close lower....!

HTTPS://novartis.gcs-web.com/Kymriah-tisagenlecleucel-first-in-class-CAR-T-therapy-from-Novartis-receives-second-FDA-approval-to-treat-appropriate-r-r-patients-with-large-B-cell-lymphoma

VSA update today: Independent Oil & Gas (IOG LN) has announced that it has now completed the acquisition of the Thames Pipeline. The pipeline provides a ready built, secure and wholly owned export route for gas from the Blythe and Vulcan Satellite hubs, saving IOG significant development capital and enhancing the economics of the Southern North Sea gas project. In addition, IOG has announced that it intends to acquire the onshore reception facilities at the Perenco Bacton Terminal where the Thames Pipeline ends. A period of exclusivity has been agreed until the end of September 2018. IOG is now the operator of the 100% owned Thames Pipeline which at peak production is expected to carry 180mmcfd; although since this would not fully utilise the pipeline�s capacity (300mmcfd in total) IOG is considering opportunities for additional third party gas. Currently IOG is conducting an intelligent pigging programme to confirm the state of the pipeline. However, since the pipeline was decommissioned in 2015 with an estimated 25-40 years of life remaining we expect it to be in good condition with any necessary remedial work likely to be limited in nature. Results are expected in early May. We also note a potential modification to the pipeline which is currently being considered. This could reduce the time and cost of the pigging programme by using a new tie in point for the Southwark platform which is in the Vulcan Satellites hub. This announcement reflects a key milestone for IOG and the company continues to make strong progress towards the Final Investment Decision due in August 2018. We reiterate our Buy recommendation and 72p price target. Cheers Madasahat

I did that yesterday Peakview. Fully committed now and averaged down to 17p in my ISA so still want this to move up soon.

Yep - miserable on all counts today! Had the Buy price fallen below 16p today I was very tempted to try to top up 25k shares straight into my ISA just to add to the "excitement" but it wouldn't budge. I am getting seriously wound up by the radio silence (given the promised completion of the SPA by the end of March) although I should learn to be a little more sanguine about it all! Need that news (preferably positive!) for my sanity I think! Meanwhile I have been watching another share - BMN (which I didn't invest in but had a "watch" on) increase another 8.5% today making that around 90% since the beginning of April...which just rubs salt into the wounds. I am just hoping that when IOG gets past the SPA and funding hurdles and into 2019 it will be equally meteoric in order to repay my faith in it...

Not directly but you can email via the contact page on the website: http://www.independentoilandgas.com/contact.php Madasahat

Well Peakview I hope the rest of the day is a bit more interesting than the first hour. As far as I can see not a single trade so far!

Thanks for the input Bandit 1 and Longside. I think the BOD are definitely playing a good game here. Keeping it as CLNs still continues to minimise the dilution until absolutely necessary at FID (which is normal anyway) whilst keeping control within IOGs hands. Roll on Q3/Q4. Positive conclusion of the pipeline survey and closing that deal should be the next major step and hopefully helps the SP take the next leg up (to around the BOD buy-in at 24p is my guess).

Cheers Longside - appreciated. What do LOG hold at present?

Can someone remind me as to the stock market rules as to when one company must lodge a bid for the whole of another based on its % shareholding? Whatever it is if LOG were to own 62% I am sure that would be over the limit and force them to make an offer for IOG? That's why the funding is being kept as a loan facility IMHO. Onwards and upwards.

Personally I think it's positive that LOG is sufficiently confident that it is prepared to fund further. The fact that if they exercised the loan facility into shares they would hold a large % of the business doesn't bother me - good that it's at a premium to day's announcement in terms of short term impact on SP. My concern is actually how the market will take the move of MR from CEO as so much of the confidence has been about him personally and his track record - might it be construed as him taking his hand of the rudder at a critical time? On a side note - previously I had discussed with posters (and others have before and since) about getting speedy (or not) RNS's from the likes of HL etc. Well last week i contacted IOG through the website and asked about email communication, noting the only real channel appeared to be twitter - as a social mediate Luddite I don't use that. I received a response within 30 minutes saying IOG did have a direct email service - although it isn't publicised on the site. I was told I had been added to the email distribution immediately - and today my email arrived direct from IOG at 7.03. That's quick enough for me! Just thought i would say about that in case anyone else wanted to do the same. Still positive. GLA. MadasaHat

This won't have much of an impact on the SP I would think (who knows) - that will still be the funding announcement IMHO. I think this was more to do with just getting some form of communication out because human nature being what it is the lack of news could have been interpreted as something bad happening in the background. Which it isn't.

Hi Dins Thanks for your message. Interesting - I will take a look. At the moment as well as a few small cap holdings (hopefully multibaggers of course) the more sensible (by that I mean comparatively lower risk) part of my SIPP portfolio I am building comprises 6 funds which i add to on a monthly basis so HL makes sense for that part of the portfolio at the moment because there are no charges for buying those. At some point though I will definitely be looking to move to a lower cost platform. Cheers MadasaHat

GG As we saw with the latest spike and then retreat whilst the rapid one day increases are initially pleasing they tend to be followed by the fallback and subsequent disappointment (because very few of us - well certainly not me - will get those calls right and successfully trade those swings often in the same day). I had that with another share last year. By definition a "spike" has an equal and opposite downside... For the me the melting upwards approach tends to mean the gains are held onto. So the further dripping out of RNSs which builds over time so that you look back and then suddenly you realise how far you have come. That's when it will stick (wider economic downturns not throwing us off course). We just need MR to continue playing a blinder. His track record is certainly impressive so I believe he will do so. I am holding tight - unfortunately I don't have spare cash to average down so I am hoping for the next move up to be sooner rather than later in 2018! Cheers MadasaHat

Thanks GG I guessed it would have been you! I have to say this is one of the more informed message boards I use (certainly one that avoids descending in to petty personal attacks between posters from what I have seen!! - sorry I hope not to jinx it), so many thanks for your contributions and those of the other regular posters. Much appreciated. Not sure if it is rather sad that the first thing I do each day (Monday to Friday of course) is to see if i have got an automated email from HL with an RNS update...It stems from knowing there's a minus number weighing down the performance of my SIPP and ISA but absolutely convinced that in a year's time IOG and its PIs are going to be in a much better place. My holdings IOG are quite modest in comparison to many on here but important to me nonetheless. So here's to an exciting and rewarding 2018. GLA Regards Madasahat

I'm sure there was a post some time ago setting out the "order of proceedings" for 2018/2019 but I cant seem to find it. Could someone enlighten me as to which activity/RNS we anticipate to be next please? As a newcomer to the board and investor - having bought in at the point I felt was already a substantial pullback from the recent highs of 32-33p (invested in tranches at 21-25) I am relatively comfortable with my position here (verified reserves and an excellent BOD) although am now looking for which RNS will be key to moving this SP back up (and what good looks like) - obviously funding with minimal dilution would be ideal although i recognise this will be inevitable for the longer term gain for the time when we get to first gas in 2019. Thanks in advance.

Novartis announces first CAR-T cell therapy BLA for pediatric and young adult patients with r/r B-cell ALL granted FDA Priority Review Priority review for investigational CTL019 (tisagenlecleucel-T), a novel therapy that is manufactured for each individual patient using their own T cells Novartis made an early commitment to the emerging field of CAR-T investigational therapies through collaboration with the University of Pennsylvania including CTL019 Novartis plans to submit an application for market authorization with the European Medicines Agency (EMA) later this year Basel, March 29, 2017 - Novartis announced today that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has accepted the company's Biologics License Application (BLA) filing and granted priority review for CTL019 (tisagenlecleucel-T), an investigational chimeric antigen receptor T cell (CAR-T) therapy, in relapsed and refractory (r/r) pediatric and young adult patients with B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). This is the first BLA submission by Novartis for a CAR-T. The priority review designation is expected to shorten the anticipated review time by the FDA.

Well, on the basis of the RNS at least, it appears the Board just doesn't have a clue how to present the numbers in a way to give confidence to investors (and hence support the share price). Key messages are missing - CTL019 is just "close to market" whatever that means...I had hoped with the new CFO it might be different this time.