Member Info for MadasaHat

@SOTRR

Of course, thanks for the reminder. The numbers are indeed scarily big. So much so that if we used them often it would be accused of ramping. But even as someone who is normally quite cautious I can realistically see £4-£5 here.

I prefer to take a few steps at a time though.

My holding is extremely modest but at £4 a share I would hit the £1 Million limit (before you get taxed at 50% or something stupid) in my SIPP! Nice problem to have I suppose! Does anyone know how that tax on your pension actually works by the way?

just some thoughts based on a post below thinking longer term (not just on the announcement of the award of the licence:

If gross profits of $43,400 per tonne give $413m pa gross profits, equating to $340m net profits, after royalties, depreciation and admin costs.

This should equate to £258M of which 64% is attributable to BMN = £165M.

Tyfoon has previously stated that for Vametco alone if we use increased costs of say $35 per kg and production of 3,750 pa, our share of post tax profits becomes a crazy £140m!

A PE of 15 gives a share price of £1.89.

A PE of 25 gives a share price of £3.16.

Well another £165M profit would at least double these projections then (obviously not until full production) - assuming there was no dilution in shares. I don't know what the numbers are for the investment required and the likely source of those funds though. Some may have a view on that and no doubt sanity check the rudimentary maths/comparison with Vametco? We won't self fund that out of operations I am sure.

We do need the market to be recognising the SP on that PE ratio though.

Doubting myself now so please feel free to put me right. But the logic seems sort of ok to me at this point. Or am I wide of the mark?

Cheers

MadasaHat

Possibly part of a bigger deal where YD wants to sell to another player who wants to build a stake in BMN? So its not really a sell into the market as it is earmarked already?

Starting to move now. 28.5/29....!

Better than doing a dummy sell for 100k shares and hitting the accept button! :-)

Nobody in their right mind would that. So it's a MM then.... :-)

Is there any general view as to what signal they are trying to give (- probably to the other MMs I presume)? walk up or try to walk it down? Either way they are having problems controlling this one I think. Even more so if we get an RNS saying the Atlas warrants have cleared.

Headancer

To halve the share price the BOD would need to increase the shares in issue from 120M to 240M and no-one believes dilution of that extent - although there will be some. Many options have already been mooted by analysts - including short and long term debt, deferred contractor payments, an off-take agreement with BP Trading. Indeed the later phases including Harvey could be self funded from operations.

Hopefully you know from your recent research that the BOD own about 24% of this company and for a period have often taken share options instead of salaries so are hugely incentivised by funding through to first gas in Q4 2019 by minimising equity dilution.

DYOR but this is a good'un. This will move this week or whenever FDP and FID are announced but then will likely grind up as we get to Q4 2019 as the project de-risks.

The BOD have a track record of achievement. Worth a look. But don't take too long about it...

Other than more BMN...

My only two holdings in my SIPP are BMN and...IOG. Another equally well run AIM company with almost equally exciting prospects. It is the only thing stopping me from going all in on BMN. Also key updates due this week.

@BBN

I do actually agree! If the Company appears weak then this could happen again. Equally I am keen to see this resolved as quickly as possible - those two aims might be mutually exclusive, I do realise. The Sojitz deal has managed to allay the increasing concern I was personally feeling as a newcomer to this investment - although I held on and didn't sell and am much happier now with that decision!

I guess that the company has deeper pockets than those of the workers so the pressure at the moment is more on them to return I would have thought. Any agreement though does have to be equitable (call me a liberal if you like) but a permanent one to keep control of the costs of production. I would expect a deal to be tied to no further action.

Surely an agreement that incentivises a catch up in lost production to ensure we remain within the guidance would have some merit. I also presume any share based agreement would need to be tied to the JSE listing and may be the more difficult aspect of the deal the unions are trying to negotiate for their members as obviously the listing has not been announced.

Of course, we do need to be actually getting it out of the ground! The sooner the disruption is ended now the better. We can't have this hanging over the H1 figures release.

A greater degree of certainty we will achieve 199BCF at Harvey. Contractors appointed. Whats not to like here?

@Alfacomp

Thanks for your continued insight and coverage of the days trading. Looking at the update do you think that the sells at 3.20 could possibly reflect someone with knowledge of the content of the RNS at 4.15 only 55 minutes later? I believe I have seen somewhere (not sure if it was this BB) that MMs get sight of the RNS one hour before it is to be published. It seems one hell of a coincidence...

Regards

MadasaHat

well done 600T. Glad you have kept your hair.

If you are cynical given the price paid it could be much much longer before it shows...

Cheers

interesting insight gleaned from another board - MM behaviour and dirty tricks

https://tickerjunkie.com/market-maker-speaks-ways-market-maker/

confessions of a US ex MM but equally valid. looking at what is described here we are clearly in the jaws of the MM games - so much resonates here. The answer to confound the MMs - supporting what has been said on this board - GO LONG, hold - add if you can (unfortunately I can't only due to lack of funds). With the fundamentals we will win through in the end.

Keep the faith.

SXX has been unashamedly ramped all year by Atlantic Advisory, Motley Fool (enough said) saying it can reach £1.10.

Not an accusation that can be levied at SP Angel on BMN! Whilst we have our views on SPA this shows that over hype will always come back to haunt you...

And, yes, amazing that they are still 3 years away from making any money. BMN valuation will get where it is supposed to be eventually. Just need the pieces to fall into place that have long been discussed on this board...

And I will try to dig out where I saw previously that the initial investment to achieve that £153M return was £1M...

Thank Jumpedship actually! I had saved that document but had forgotten where that reference to £300M had come from.

Regards

MadasaHat

So from Finncap themselves then:

"Funding a catalyst. IOG needs to put in place £300m of financing and is looking at multiple sources including conventional debt, equity finance, finance linked to gas off-take and contractor finance. Its independently certified 2P reserves should provide a solid basis for this and we take confidence in recent High Yield bond issuances by similar
companies. Securing funding would be a major catalyst for the shares to close the valuation gap relative to our risked NAV while allowing a further valuation de-risking. Moreover, we see free cash flow after start-up capable of paying back all development funding within three years".

So that is the max and it could be they don't need this much as Phase 2 could be funded from Phase 1. But there is a published number here.

They clearly don't anticipate that coming entirely from equity raise and hence dilution. I am confident with the BOD direct interest in preservation of the SP that they will find a portfolio combination of long and short term debt plus equity and BP Trading offtake to get us there.

Regards

Madasahat

Quite perversely I believe that now the cat is out of the bag that the share is 99% certain it is being shorted then it equally becomes more obvious that it's not a fundamental problem with the business itself (indeed far from it) then this gives people the confidence to get in or back in if they bailed.

Great work Alfacomp, just brilliant. Thank you. As some posters have stated even if it proves to have little effect don't let them off the hook and report it.

I am just disappointed I don't have further funds to top up.

Regards

MadasaHaat

Hi 600T

I notice a trade for 40000 gone through. You?

Regards

MadasaHat