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It is extremely common: most retail buy high and sell low. Or freeze when a moment comes to sell (especially at a loss), leading to bigger losses. No smugness here. I have been guilty of that myself a number of times. Am getting better and more disciplined I think, but no complacency either.
If it was easy to do otherwise, everyone would make money all the time in the stock market. And sometimes it is a toss of a coin whether company X will turn things around if given patience, or not. So luck plays a part too, definitely.
IMO, what we have in this particular example is a badly managed operation (as evidenced by the mirror-opposite performance, and thus SP history, of our main UK listed competitor), but a business that has a great moat and that sits within an essential sector. Unlike most companies on the stock market generally.
We have a large shareholder that has continued to increase its position on the roster and we have a current share price that largely (but not fully) has priced in the failures of late. AIMO anyway.
So, unless we get something that is really hair-raising on Monday, I will be ready to add here myself if we see a price that I think offers an appropriate risk to reward ratio.
I will also be following the early trading activity closely and might take a view then for a quick trade maybe.
Or it could be a case of taking a couple of small tranches over the space of the three day rule scenario. Eg setting a few buy orders and forgetting about it, for the investment pot.
But first things first. Let us see what the content involves! Good weekend all and fingers crossed for some Monday cheer.
Ah, the reassuring voice of JM. Seemingly as bullish on JAY as he was six plus years ago, and SP 90-odd percent higher (and a good many fewer dilutions back then too).
So calm and reasonable his explanations for the latest failure always sound. He could charm the birds from the trees.
Justin strikes me as having the measure of things here though. His tone when posing some of the questions. Something I first noticed a while ago in an earlier interview with JM covering JAY. Anyone else know what I mean?
Anyway, it appears that the same people who were bears, remain bears and the same bulls remain bulls, for the time being.
Thanks for sharing the latest video and good weekend all.
As time has gone on here, it simply gets harder to 'just' put this down to useless corporate mismanagement. Just too many things that simply do not make sense.
Some of my earlier comments here outline what I think is going to be the end game here now.
None of them lead to a positive result for the majority of shareholders.
More recently, I have wondered if we might see an ETX or C4DX type of outcome, although I think the odds remain greater that AOP will simply issue the company with another loan, on ruinous terms that essentially might as well mean a wipe out for ordinary shareholders.
To be announced whenever we get the next update. Which will be full of the same BS as all the other ones probably.
Or maybe at best eg a 1p all share cash offer. Why would they pay more than they need to?
Ultimately, if they were unhappy with the CEO and wider management team, they would have been in a position to do something about it a long time ago. Something to ponder.
But others may hold different opinions and that is fine too. GLA. Except the BOD.
Riz29: In addition to reviewing all the formal material of the past 12-18 months, which I presume you have already done, have a look and listen to all the interviews too. Plenty of stuff on the internet to this end.
Listen to all the promises and general positive patter.
Then compare it with what has actually been delivered. Well, as much as we can rely on what they claim has been achieved of course (misleading prescription numbers, ahem).
How enthusiastic the CEO has always been...except when it comes to putting his hand in his pocket and actually buying some shares himself.
You could be forgiven for thinking he was working pro bono, but instead, and I doubt many would argue, his remuneration is really very generous.
Indeed, it would be generous, even if he had taken the company to profitability, which should have been achieved by now.
More red flags than a beach in a storm. Whether by accident or design, this is a dog with fleas.
At best, a commercial car crash. Shareholder value destroyed, thanks to a useless management team.
Or at worst, one that has been deliberately taken in this direction.
Either way, one that should already be under regulatory investigation to establish which of these two scenarios applies - but this is AIM - and so we will probably never know.
But to each their own views naturally.
Well, if I do not get screwed by the 'special independent committee' presiding over the future of PARA (and seemingly ignoring far better prospects than Skydance at the time of print - which is not hard!) - then I will chuck some more in here at low 60's, which I would probably have done anyway, but might take a few more if the above goes well.
Are there any good CEO's in the media world right now? Overpaid and mediocre, by and large, IMO. Hey ho.
I agree. And then you have the Middle East stuff, which will also impact everything of course, on top of the 'sell in May' cycle. Thought calmer heads had started to prevail, but then I read the news headlines this morning. Sigh.
Anyway, GLA and until the next update here, will probably sit on my hands. Probably :)
A cynic might conclude they are looking for fresh retail money to pump the SP up, with this new/additional resource hunt.
Looking forward to Ashton's take on this...somewhat unexpected news.
Like the other poster said, do they have anyone in the team with relevant skills and knowledge in that space, or will it require additional headcount (costs) and another raise perhaps?
How are those non-Disko asset sales going? How long is the cash runway going to last? Not mentioning Disko, because I appreciate that it is currently out of JAY's hands to update on this right now - but the other questions are not.
Goodness me :)
I am really surprised to see that the shorts have increased here. At least, based on the latest short tracker update. Might be lower tomorrow, of course.
Come on, Jose, put your hand in your pocket and buy a big chunk like Barker did recently!
Nothing speaks louder than such a statement of intent IMO. Not to mention take another slice of shares away from the shorts, who at some point are going to surely want/need to buy them back.... GLA.
Oh, I totally agree. I would imagine that they would have announced the U-turn with a good deal of reluctance. And I also agree with you that they may have had their hand forced on the issue as well.
But the failure is nevertheless on them.
Anyway, while it remains a strike on their record, so to speak, it is in the past.
To the other poster - this is not/has not been a day trade stock (to my mind anyway) - but it has offered some satisfactory swing trades over the time I have been here.
Without which, my core holding would have been gathering dust, under water (and its real cash value/technical purchasing power further diminishing, like our fiat currency, ahem), so no apologies from me for my strategy to this end :)
The dividend debacle was clownish and the BOD have some work to do to restore investor confidence in their commercial capabilities. To say the least :)
I remain here because I too think the worm will turn sooner or later.
Either with this management team, or some new blood.
Not buying more before the next update, but if they surprise to the upside (within the narrow range of reasonable expectations of course - we know it is not going to be amazing) - then we could see some nice action here from the current SP level.
The Cosman angle is also part of my thinking here to be honest, but equally, I am ready to add more if we see the SP tank after the update. Subject to the obvious caveats, naturally. GLA.
These are fair points, joe80, but none of that changes the fact that, as far as common shareholders go, bankruptcy is not the only thing that could potentially wipe them out (or almost as good as) from this current share price point.
None of which matters from the perspective of those who give out the contracts to PFC, necessarily.
As long as the business is a going concern, operating with the law, and the work gets done, so what? From their position.
As pokerchips rightly said earlier though, shareholders are basically at the bottom of the food chain here.
And until we get specifics on what the finance deal is going to involve, then it is something that everyone needs to base their decisions on.
As to your final opinion. That very much depends on what happens with said finance.
A D4E around 10p? Maybe. An II backed raise at 15p or more? That would start to look appealing for a potential trade again, IMO.
Or something much, much better for shareholders might be agreed upon, and those of you inside the tent right now can look forward to your rewards for the risks you have decided to take. GLA.
I am so torn here right now. The chart looks primed for another crack at the 200 DMA (IMO), but no inside buying yet since the update. Short interest is still high (although coming down at the time of print).
Wider markets and macro stuff still makes me feel like extra caution is wise right now. And that it would be better to wait for a confirmed break to the update (at least over the 50 anyway).
Any purely technical traders here? Feel free to disagree, my chart reading skills remain limited at best :)
I am sorry, but that is simply not true. A company can, and often does, announce contract renewals.
When a company is under financial difficulty, I would suggest it is actually beholden on the senior management team to do everything that it can to show the market what it has and continues to have etc. Not just new work wins.
You are probably going to enjoy a rise in the SP today and good luck to you.
This actually increases the mistrust I now have in the management here, how they presented the last RNS etc, so am not tempted to jump back in, even for a quick punt.
This lot feel like they might rug pull at any given second IMO and a sudden and ruinous D4E deal announcement intra-day would annoy me more than missed profits here might do.
As a scenario only, not suggesting such a thing will happen etc. GLA.
Good post, Pokerchips. Some calm and reasoned thinking, during a period of (understandable) uncertainty, and thus extreme fluster, on this BB.
I just hope some of the posters here who clearly have, or had, a lot in this one are OK, if you understand my meaning.
While we are all entirely responsible for our own investment decisions of course, you do sometimes wonder whether some of the more...unscrupulous directors of listed entities ever ponder how some of their actions might have largely, or entirely, led to avoidable catastrophic consequences for so many people like the poster a few here have alluded to.
One that I hope is doing OK also, and who I hope posts here again soon just to confirm so.
Selling up after the recent update was a decision made with the head, for those of us who took that path.
That in itself does not mean it will be the right one in time of course, but regardless, it was not a decision made from a place of irrationality or 'the heart'. I take issue with that comment :)
Certainly, if, as some seem to think, the BOD are doing something dodgy to cheat people out of their shares for example, then some of us would not want to be a part of such a shady operation anyway.
Even if one is indifferent to such a scenario, without inside knowledge, you are basically betting that by not 'falling for the shakeout' you are going to be able to make out like those bandits. Not saying they are crooks, to be clear, but just making the point in line with this particular theory to which I hold no opinion in either direction.
The alternative is you take the RNS at face value and have to call into question the level of professionalism and ability of the BOD to turn the ship around. It was unnecessary IMO but in particular, it was extremely poorly communicated and presented, at the very least. Hardly the first blemish on an otherwise exemplary copybook.
Either scenario is a solid reason to sell IMO.
Probably not long to find out which scenario is going to be the correct one, but either way, GLA who remain invested here, or in for a punt. Ultimately, you either win, or you lose. Everything else is simply noise.