Member Info for luddite

The projected dividend for 2014 is 92p which at todays price is 7% yield. I have lost a few % this year on a top up at £13.88 in January but return per share long term is over £30/share from an inital price under £3, the present price is attractive. I would not be too concerned if the dividend were to be reduced but there is no evidence this is going to happen, just anecdotes and opinions which dont count for much. There has actually been no government intervention affecting SSEs profits, all they have done is tinker with green levies by rolling the costs forward. SSE has had an equal time under labour and conservative governments and has done well under both. In the unlikely event that Millyband gets elected labour have a history of similar utility bashing rhetoric prior to elections and then doing a U turn when they see the effect it has on investment decisions. I doubt a large market correction will happen until before at least April next year, dont take any notice of the pundits, Moneyweek etc have been predicting the end is nigh for years, they seem not to have noticed the bull market in the meantime , we now have a whole army of pundits in the US making videos of doom to sell their ropey systems, I wouldnt mind so much if they were any good at producing an entertaining story but some of them are absolute morons. I am betting on the UK market doing a Christmas or early new year rally on the back of the US markets which will see the FT100 go through 7000.

OK we will have a truce on QE, we have differing opinions which is a good thing, if we all held the same opinion it would be worse. I would not add to IAG because the increase means I am now overweight, to rebalance I should sell some but I am holding. I have been in Lonrho/Lonmin since 1983 and visited the Marikina mine in 1989. Its difficult to analyse Lonmin because they had capitalisation and rights issues every year which give the incorrect impression that the price has not moved much, an adjusted chart is needed to give the correct story and I have not been able to find one . I made the mistake of not selling when the price was £40, I will not make the same mistake twice, Lonrho in my opinion is likely to become a takeover target again in 2014 if the share price remains below £5, this time a more modest £10 might be offered. I topped up SSE at £13.88 in January, with the benefit of dividends received I will be making a loss on these shares below £13 , I think the price could turn upwards following green subsidy tinkering within the next week or two but the danger is the level of tinkering is not enough to shut up Millybands ranting , they will be making jokes about Camerons stupidity, he should have the sense to judge public mood and made it a higher number, £50 may not help at all and all he is offering is to roll the cost forward to after the election. As for the management of SSE words fail me, they just could not wait and had to be the first to announce a big increase and in doing so look at the mess they have made for themselves. I dont understand how people with so little understanding of politics and empathy with customers manage to get top jobs running major companies, I am positive about SSE despite the management, they are almost enough to make me want to take action, after all look what Mark Taber achieved with his action on the Coop group, he well and truly kicked their arses , what an absolute embarrasment to Mr Millyband looking to take advice from the reverend Flowers.

If you believe in TA you are looking for a reverse J on the charts which could be today ! or maybe not . If you are cautious I would wait a few more days to see if it falls further as predicted by JP Morgan Cazenove but I think they got it wrong. SSE dont do things by halves , imagine being able to borrow 10 billion Euros at a very low interest rate, I could build a new greenhouse and buy a new car but I suppose these guys will use some of it to pay us a dividend which I like and the rest on windmills or something similar, projected 92P for 2014 is a yield of 6.8% at todays price but of course its no use if the share price falls a further 10%. Long term do you really think red Ed has a chance of getting elected, he is the reason the price is at todays level but I think its oversold already.

I want to buy GVC for the dividend but not pay the all time high price, where is the price going ? It goes ex div in Feb 2014 so too far away to affect todays price . The trades this past 4 days are mainly sells so market makers have too many on their books and want to ofload but they are holding at £3.52 as long as they can, without an increase in buying or positive news the price may decline short term ?

I am not claiming the present bull market can go on indefinitely, it definitely cannot . QE is not 'experimental its been going on since the start of the fiat money system, its just the renaming of an old trick. I enjoy reading predictions but you need to attach a date to them. I think SSE will turn upwards again in December and hit £14 possibly £14.50, sentiment is pushing it down at the moment but this will change. To predict SSE willl drop to £11.63 either you have taken up TA or you know something no one else knows, the interim dividend level is already set for January so that cannot now be reduced so what else could happen , tighter regulation I doubt could have much downward effect on the price. SRP I am clueless. IAG is a great share for long term holders and also for traders, the technicals are great . Trading this over the past 8 weeks could have netted you a 50% capital gain just by using the basic charts no special skills needed, CFD traders must love this one, forget crappy AIM shares with their massive spreads. At todays price its been moving up due to a further oil price drop and the upward FT100 index blip so I would expect to have yet another trading opportunity when it drops back again then rises to £4 for the Christmas rally but let it run for a week or so. Emirates is not a great threat to IAG having their hub in Dubai is like a ball and chain, I remember the bad old days having to touch down on route to the far east compared to being able to take a non stop flight now, the lure of a cheaper bottle of whisky and cigs is not enough to make me want to leave my seat for an hour while they fill the tanks with free fuel. There is plenty of room for IAG, every dog has its day and IAG are having their day(s) and will continue to do so, can you put a date on when you expect they will have their lemons squeezed so I can prepare myself ? Another great trading share is Lonmin, its been up and down like a yo yo and no sign of the oscillations damping down, I would bet on this one going back over £3.50 at least once before the year end .

Net asset value of 2.5p per share and even taking out intangibles its 1.17p per share, if these figures are correct the share price looks well underpinned at the moment, I dont see much downside risk but plenty potential reward on the upside. It may turn out this is not the dead parrot after all, all we need now is the price of oil to increase.

No you dont have to remind anyone its obvious just by clicking on the fundamentals , have you learned how to use limit orders yet ? SSE keep raising the dividend to remain part of the rising dividend club, it suits their purpose , it does not matter too much that its paid from borrowed money because they can borrow money for very little as they have a better credit rating than some banks , low interest rates look like remaining unchanged through 2014 so no worries about this factor, its probably not the reason for the declining price more to do with sentiment , logic does not apply . The combination of increasing dividend payment plus increase in share price matters , one without the other is no good . Past performance is of course no guarantee of future returns but SSE has increased from under £3 to £14 which is not bad even if you spent the dividends but with dividends reinvested the return is effectively £36 or a twelve bagger for those that measure performance in units of bags . I checked your 3 recommendations : SREI - declining yield over each of last 4 years , looks to me more like price could rise with resulting reduction in dividend , property is not my favourite punt . MAN - share price £1 declining to 50P , in this case I would be more worried about losing my capital than gaining a dividend, I dont see much growth in the market for machine gun parts, I do gamble occassionally but this is not for me. Who are Hasard fund , do you mean Hansard ? I dont like funds they charge a lot for doing what you can do better yourself for nothing.

Great, thanks for asking. No I am not cashing in some profit just yet , at todays £3.57 I am looking for a further 12% increase before I think about what to do next . I am sorry it appears I have given you the wrong impression, I dont give government credit for anything and we are not about to have a total meltdown. In the event of a market crash, by this I mean a 30 to 50% correction rather than a 'total meltdown' , what does it actually mean ? In my opinion it means nothing much , the sun still rises and my car will probably still start after all nothing much really happened in all the previous 'crashes' other than the market bounces back, the balance of probability is the same thing will happen again. Everyone playing the leveraged claims on gold game knows there is no gold, those people using banks to store their gold are a different set of punters and they should know better than to pay a banker to store it in a vault, might as well hand it to Bernie Madeoff to look after it for them. Brokers often get it wrong , do you know the reason Citi predict SSE at £12 ? The only way SSE can fall to £12 is if it has to cut the dividend by a subtstantial amount, thats not impossible and the trend has been down since September but assuming they pay 92P in 2014 that would be a yield of 7.7% and I dont think it will go to that level. We are not in an arena of crazed speculation, share prices are more influenced by sentiment than logic , if markets were logical there would be no money to be made. If you are worried about where to put your money how about bitcoin , theres only about £6 billion worth around at the moment and not enough computing power in the world to make many more, looks like a safe bet to me long term although right now it looks a bit spikey. Thanks for the Matthew Lynn article, he is right about the big picture but his stock picking skills let him down.

I enjoy reading all the free stuff on the internet , its priceless and full of useful tit bits. I had a sales person call me from Fat Prophets trying to sign me up , I told him I was more than happy with the free stuff , he remonstrated that what I am getting is just marketing ploy, once inside there would be some really good stuff, I remember 40 years ago being told the same outside a clip joint in Soho, I learned my lesson the first time around. Jumping off at the right time I think its not necessary to worry about doing this until at least next march. What to jump into, anything you feel like , Sterling cash , Swiss Francs maybe , yes they can bomb out as well but that does not matter, you may have less than you had before, all that matters is your place in the global pecking order and its likely you will still be better off than at least 90% of the rest of humanity , if you play your cards right you may even move up the ladder. The 2% inflation figure is needed in the US as a minimum not the maximum , they are not getting it which could lead to deflation which then needs a completely different game plan. What happened in Brazil was caused by a football stadium being built when they do not have hospitals and schools, I can empathise with what happened there but rioting in the UK caused by a financial crash, one of the richest countries in the world where 100% of the population is better off than at least the poorest 6 billion people ? I was adversley affected by the several crises I have lived through starting with the Arab oil embargo in 1973 but most of my aquaintances slept through the lot, not even realising there was a financial crash going on around them. The recent riots in the UK had nothing to do with financial issues, I agree they could happen again but the trigger will be something as equally unpredictable as a drug dealer being shot by the police. Anyway looks like IAG have had their little dip and are heading up to £4 again, hope you took advantage and topped up ? Even the brokers are now predicting £4 , of course they would when it becomes blatantly obvious thats were they are heading.

Once again we agree about the tangible , mangoes are without doubt the tastiest fuit. I was pleasantly surprised to discover that raspberries can be grown in this cold wet place, there is absolutely no chance that mangoes will grow here. If I want a mango I have to take pot luck that a good one has managed to find its way onto the supermarket shelf which is unlikely because the best ones end up in Japan, the dregs are sent to Europe and the US. I read the FT article, paragraph 8 contradicts 6 but I agree with most of it. I have watched all the episodes of hiddensecretsofmoney.com and everything on the positivemoney.org site including the 16 page ramble by an expert, this stuff is interesting and educational and there is no doubt in my mind that some of it is correct although I could see some errors, problem is they are really adverts for gold. How do we get out of this ? We dont, we carry on because we have no choice, there is nothing can be done about it other than jump off at the right moment , it may be difficult to time it right, Moneyweek has been incorrectly predicting the end for years. Todays problem of the day is the prospect of deflation, the feds QE has failed to encourage the desired 2% inflation, the answer is they are not doing enough QE, we need more not less, an increase to $100bn a month was suggested today, I cannot see it going so high but lets see what the next few months brings. Anyway looks like IAG has taken a rest, with the FT100 falling back would not surprise me if we see a mini market dip before the christmas rally but I still think IAG will get to £4 by the end of December. The oil price is dropping fast so I hope that IAG are in a position to hedge fuel costs at the bottom of the dip.

You are right never heard of it until you mentioned it , at first sight it appears to be a money printing machine, will have to investigate further, my biggest mistakes have been made going in blind and getting spiked and have aquired my full quota of stray dogs from the AIM kennel for 2013 so I dont want any more. The momentum is definitely pointing over £4 so might not be much time to decide.

As it happens you are right I am very short sighted , I need 3.5 reading glasses these days, your perception is excellent . I have been in SSE for years and hopefully years to come, my best guess this year was buying at around £13.88 on ex div day 23 January , I doubt we will see 15 to 20% downside from that price but anything is possible . My first buy in was less than £3 so I suppose the AIM enthusiasts would call it a 5 bagger so far , I missed the bottom by 6P this January which annoyed me no end . Limit orders are not just for the market going up they are great for when you want to watch the TV or maybe go shopping or do a bit of gardening , use them up or down , its hard for me to imagine why anyone would not use them extensively ? We have had both labour and conservative governments, and despite the labour bogeymen ( would it be more politically correct to call them bogeypeople ? ) they have not had a detrimental affect on utility share prices. The news of a windfall tax in 1997 provided a good entry point and that I seem to recall was much higher than what is being proposed now.

yes you could be right , I will try a limit order , I just hate it when I dont buy at the bottom .

You do realise that Iberdrola own SP ? I believe that the average utility could have a bunch of monkeys on the main board, as long as they made conservative decisions like not eating all their bananas at once they could be just as successful as the present incumbents, paying the boss £2.6m a year is not neccessary but having said that it seems what he gets is something I personally have no control over, all I care about is it worth buying SSE or not ? The fines are peanuts compared to what the banks like JP Morgan have to pay for their misdemeanours and yet even a billion dollars hit does not seem to deter investors much so mis selling fines are just a slap on the wrist . I am in limbo at the moment waiting to see if the price drops to £14 before topping up but seems to be holding around £14.38 no matter which celebrity ****s them off , even the pea eating ex PM has tried and failed so maybe this could be the real support level.

There is no togetherness in the equity markets , go and join the Harry Krishners if thats what you want, otherwise this could be a good price to get in at. The bad news today was about Iberdrola for a change not SSE but they dropped in togetherness , could that be what you mean ? 6.4% prospective 2014 yield at this price is a better rate than the building society and certainly safer than the Coop bank . SSE is now no 3 in the bad boy price charts having only increased prices by 8.2% the two others are 9.2% and 10.2%, the rest will soon do the same and take the heat off, the bishop of Canterbury should stick to what he knows and pray for global warming rather than castigating the power utilities.

I have had a good look around Tesco to figure out what is the most expensive and possibly highest profit margin food they sell per kG, raspberries are the same price as fillet steak and manuka honey so I am planting because I dont have enough space for a cow and keeping bees requires years of experience to get it right . The debt ceiling/ tapering etc is not economically significant because nothing has changed , the markets are now back on trend. I am not buying more IAG even though I think they may rise at least a further 10% by Christmas as I have more than enough already committed , I also have several other shares I believe will do the same, all the eggs in one basket is not a good idea and my crystal ball is not fool proof. I can confirm I am investing more into the equity market, I think its criminal that the banks offer 0.5% on a cash isa when I can get 6.4%( based on projected 92p 2014 dividend ) plus a few % extra in capital growth which altogether may give me a 15% return in SSE even with current price of £14.50. SSE and SVT should come good , Mr Millyband has handed prospective investors a good entry point , cheers to Mr Millyband , however the SNP are now trying to depress the share price even further so also thanks to Mr Salmon they should both be working for JP Morgan in charge of the market manipulation department . Anyway whats wrong with JP Morgan, they are just not as good as the rest of the banks in keeping the lid on how they operate, years ago before the internet they would never be found out but these days everything is becoming more 'transparent' I dont know if this is a good thing or not . If you are shorting then you are investing , I dont see what the difference is once you have money in the market at risk then you are investing , nothing wrong with doing that, its no more morally right or wrong than going long . I dont get it when I read on boards that some posters dont like shorters , they have the same right to lose money as someone hoping for a gain going long , anyone shorting IAG has so far had their investment involuntarily added to the market which perversely helps the price rise , this makes them investors.

As anticipated the turkeys did not vote for christmas and the hicup of debt ceiling has been rolled over to January , this feels like deja vue , history is said not to repeat but if it does then its plain sailing for the markets until May 2014 . Debt ceiling and shutdown were expected but tradionally October is the month for set backs. The debt ceiling was just a blip , taper has also become a non issue until next year at least., if we get to November with no more issues then IAG will hit at least £4 by christmas . I agree with your comments on the Royal Mail especially as I was too busy pottering about in the garden to get my application in on time , could have had a quick £350 profit , I could kick my own ass . Dont worry I do not want to affect your strategy, no one listens to me anyway so I would be more worried if anyone acted on my advice .

The QE money has gone into shoring up banks balance sheets and its still probably a bit short , you surely never expected anything else , when Gordon Brown donned his superman outfit to save the world what he really meant was the banks , I hate QE but we have it so factor it into your plans . I find it hard to believe that you believe that getting lucky or cheating are the only ways you can make money in the markets , if you feel that way then why are you investing ? You are right there lots of people playing the markets they buy equites , bonds , calls puts , spread betting , CFDs , etc , thats a mugs game , what you need to do is write the calls and puts and buy them when necessary but UK companies do not offer that service as far as I know . You think its not possible to ' outrun ' QE , if you live in the fiat money world you have no choice the only question should be what do you have to do . Its approximately 5 years since UK QE1 , my target is to make 15%/year or approx 100% since QE1 , even IAG has beaten that target easily in less than a year and their are dozens of blue chips that have done the same . Wealth is relative , all that matters is your position in the global pecking order , assuming you are right and we have a complete crash do you think your relative position will change ? Buffet Gates and Slim will still be relatively rich , Africans will still not have Weetabix for breakfast and Europeans in the middle will have nearly everything they had before , nothing will change , it dosnt matter if we have a global economic crash or not your position is assured. The global economy is man made, its our system and unlike earthquakes and volcanoes it is controllable, its not going off and doing its own thing but I can see the Chinese doing relatively well out of a crash . With respect to IAG assets they are the real value at todays values , there is a worldwide shortage of new aircraft , IAG could probably sell on some of the aircraft they have on order and make a profit never mind a 'mark to market ' discount, its todays valuations that matter , thats what todays share price is based on not what the assets might be worth in the event of a crash.

You can outrun QE but you need to take action , anyone using deposit accounts paying a few % interest cannot outrun it but if you invest in equities I think its possible . Derivatives when used correctly are not bets they are covered by the underlying equity so unless you are trading naked their will be no margin call , unfortunately thats the way the majority of UK traders operate and they lose money but its not necessary to operate this way on the US markets . Following your comments about IAG being owned by the bank and bondholders I have taken another look at their accounts to see what you are on about . As far as I can see IAG bonds do have an imminent redemption date and over £300M were redeemed end of September working out very well for those that converted to equity , its positive for the share value that they converted rather than take cash . If I add the bank debt plus outstanding bonds its a fraction of the net asset value so could you be specific about numbers because I am obviously missing something that you know about ?

We seem to agree on the fundamentals but not the technical analysis ? I think that the market for derivatives is affected by Elliot waves etc , its been a long cycle and we are approaching a peak or may have already passed it , this leveraged market for complex products is unwinding , the banks that used these products are becoming outed at a fast rate . The US market for basic derivatives used to improve equity returns is growing but in the UK we still have a betting shop mentality . Anyone residing in a country that practices QE has no choice but play the game , I watch how much money is being printed and then make an estimate of how much the government has stolen from me and that becomes the target amount I have to make to get back to where I was before the QE . The government never states what % of my money they have taken from me by QE , they state how many billion pounds they have printed , think its something like £375bn so far . the bank of england produced this leaflet : http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetarypolicy/Documents/pdf/qe-pamphlet.pdf , when I read this I came to the conclusion that the people at the BOE are idiots or being less charitable to them maybe they think we are idiots. I dont want to have to spend too much time researching so I make an estimate of 10% a year , thats with QE+inflation together so managing a total of 15% a year should result in happiness and contentment so thats my target . Would be great to have a more accurate figure in % terms per annum that the government is stealing from the people by QE ? Anyway wrt IAG its amazing what a difference a week can make , was this our October dip or is the main event yet to come , I still think we will see £4 by christmas .