Member Info for luddite

Also agree with you Farmertally, Woodford seems to have lost the plot, his investment in cold fusion is absolutely nuts, what has possesed him in recent years ? I think he has effectively lobster potted himself into many of his investments in fringe companies that have no chance.

I love your your romantic resolve on 'investing' just wish it could work . I do not care if Emma is a man or woman, it makes no difference, your investing strategy will not create a future society we can all be proud of, the stock market is a dog eats dog type of place and thats the way it is. I had bonds with the coop bank for many years not because I fell for their ethical nonsense but because I thought they would make good money but of course in the end they are all outed as hypocrits and shown up for what they are. I cannot think of one company I gamble on where I have any likeing or respect for the management.

Iself seems to have raised his target, on 23rd Dec he said a low of �10.50 and trading in a range of �11 to �12 for 2-18 and now you saying �12 to �13 and also in another post said it would drop further, amusing but I need people to call it wrong otherwise I could not make money. I am also encouraged that Woodford sold as he seems to be getting more wrong than right recently.

I doubt that the CEO of any company I gamble on has much influence on the share price although I would give her a small credit for aiding the negative sentiment that sent the GSK price down enabling me to buy but her efforts seem now to be discounted and the price is rising so I am happy. I dont care wether she stays or goes, whoever is CEO will be paid about 100 times more than they are worth.

Iself, you posted December that you felt GSK had much further to fall, do you still hold that view ? I felt that it had bottomed out and I am now happy with an average 4% clear profit ( after stamp duty ) in less than one month, I was not expecting so much in less than four weeks It is very unlikely that GSK will trade in the range you predicted unless of course there is an overall market correction which may happen sometime in 2018 but right now GSK is looking good.

I am having a little punt around this price level, hopeing it pays for my car insurance, looks cheap enough to me,

M1k3y, Sorry I have nothing sensible to report, the buys were all within the main 2 min candle bodys, on average neither at the top or bottom. I was hopeing to see that the buying algo was doing something clever by always getting the best price but that does not appear to the case even though some of the buys were very low numbers, maybe it was and too clever for me to figure it out. Anyway looks like the buyback is over for now and we are now taking off on the Santa Rally. I am keeping my main holding and looking for separate trading opportunities at these levels, maybe it can carry on rising but will be getting nervous if it goes over £7.

Iselsf, 'Sentiment is certainly a part, when is it not, but sentiment is based on fundamentals and basic realities.' I disagree with your statement. As a share price drops from a high and approaches fundamental value you might expect the sentiment component within the price does correlate more but I believe that is not the case. During the credit crunch some FTSE100 companies were valued not just below fundamental value but way below NAV etc, on PE ratios of less than 2 and still there were few buyers, negative sentiment ruled and there was no rationality or logic to it. Today we are not at the extreme low of the credit crunch, more like on the way to another top in the market but I believe the GSK price is more likely to ride up with that market than fall further, the negative sentiment seems to have bottomed out. I would expect to be selling again within the next few months.

Its ok that you do not want to debate Woodford but it was you that mentioned him in the first place ? I am assuming from your posts that you believe the share price of GSK is very much linked to the fundamentals ? I also have some interest in fundamentals but I think whats driving the share price more is sentiment, this component can be less logical or correct than the fundamentals but its the reason the price is around £13. I read what the analysts and fund managers have to say, there are nearly always an equal number coming to an opposite conclusion when they all have access to the same data, it actually encourages me when I see so many of them getting it wrong. What I am trying to guess is which way sentiment will drive the share price and at the moment I am guessing its more likely to rise than fall.

I bought recently at £13.08 then at £12.78 as it fell further, somehow I am always more comfortable buying on the way down even, always more difficult on the way up. Today I feel more confident than I did two weeks ago that GSK has bottomed out and is turning up aided by the start of the santa rally and as long as the pound stays around the $1.33 mark, still I have not bothered reading about the Emma lady, does she make the tea ?

I believe Woodford was signalling red flags for the entire stock market but if you look at his actions in recent years he has put himself in a very difficult position, the main red flags should be pointing at Woodfords portfolio. If there is a general market correction the future for Woodford is not looking good. It seems to me like a crazy situation, little me is meant to be the punter getting stung buying duff AIM shares and celebs like Woodward is meant to at least safeguard his customers capital, instead it seems to me like the world has turned upside down and we have swopped our alter egos.

Todays rns is interesting, they are back to buying in proper amounts, �8 million spent on Friday to go into treasury ready to cancel, thats now roughly 4% of the issued shares. The interesting bit for me table showing how DB bought, obviously its an algo but other than it having done around 600 buys throughout Friday I cannot make much sense of it so far, I am putting it into a spread sheet and overlaying it agains the 1 and 2 minute candlesticks to see if I can see how te algo compares to a human trader, I have nothing better to do so I may as well. Initially I felt it did not do very well, they paid an average of �6.15. Something I find interesting is that nearly every buy order was in amounts way smaller than I would make and these are the big boys so I assume they know a lot more than I do about how to get the best price. They will no doubt have DMA and not be restricted to the main market and pay zero commission so overall I would have expected them to have done slightly better than they did but there again buying 8 million quids worth without pumping the price up too much may have been a good enough achievement, now I know why the price has held up so well following it going ex div, I wonder are they at it again today, we will know tommmorow..

bbrinkw, Anyone wanting sell more than 20 approximately shares is better off sticking with one of the big brokers and anyone wanting to sell 1000 shares would be ripped off for around �15 using this service, I cannot imagine many punters taking them up on this not so kind offer.

I feel neutral about the IAG share buy back. I have held BA since floatation outside an ISA and also trade IAG within and hold long in an ISA as well as derivatives. The witholding tax payable on dividends is less preferable to me than seeing a tax free capital gain generated by share buy back so I am slightly in favour of the buy back even if it means the useless directors and senior management also make money which I dont like seeing but its part of the deal. When share buybacks became rampant amongst many companies following the recovery from the credit crunch they were seen for a few years as a positive and a sign of rude health as good as seeing the CEO remortgage his house to buy shares in his own company, unfortunately most of them arrange to get lucrative warrants or options that cost them bugger all. Buy backs can now be seen as simply a tool used to lever up the share price for the mangement to get their short term targets, its really rampant amongst large cap US companies and in many cases its damaged the company converting equity to debt which is ok as long as interest rates stay low but that plans looking shaky for many of them and may even be something that eventually causes a market crash, in the case of IAG I begrudgindly accept they have got it about right so far.

Iself, I have been 'gambling' on the stock market full time for 8 years , no pension , no salary , no benefits so I need get it right more than wrong. I first started my gambling career in 1983 playing with shares and then derivatives such as traded options which were slightly different to the 'options' market we see today in that the private mug punter was not allowed to write the options as we can do today which is were the money is. I have had to suffer so many celebrity ceos over the years that I have learned that they are in the main irrelevant to a companies performance, Emma or Tiny Rowland or Lord Hanson or Rob Terry , they may as well be all the same to me except I will not bother to read up on Emma, she possibly will never be called the unnaceptable face of capitalism, I dont know and dont care as she makes little difference to what I do. A small private investor can absolutely trounce the performance of any fund manager , I put �12k into a Cazenove PEP when it was launched in the early 1990s and still keep it as a benchmark, it has of course increased in value by about 700% but this is a mediocre performance, mediocre company SSE has increased by around 800% over the same period dividends reinvested, fund managers rarely get outside this envelope of mediocrity but they like to tell us they are out best hope, thanks but no thanks Mr Woodford. As for tracker funds, also no thank you very much, this would appeal to me as much as putting my money in a building society deposit account,

I have no real idea but I just bought more at �12.78 , I find it easier to buy on the way down than when it turns upwards again, as well as the pound going up more today the sharpest price drop coinicided with the US market opening so its possible ADRs and shorters are pushing it down, seems like a bargain to me but what do I know.

Not that I have any faith in the Motley Crew they observe in todays missive from them ; 'Since the latest free cash flow numbers fall far short of the company's goal for covering the dividend with money to spare for investing in growth, investors are worried about a cut in the dividend in 2019. However, the company's restructuring and cost-cutting efforts are succeeding at growing free cash flow. By 2019, the company should be able to pay the current dividend out of cash without growing debt.' They also say that Pfizer is a better bet but I am punting on GSK not Pfizer, a possible dividend cut in 2019 is so far away I feel I can ignore this possibility plus the risk of a cut is at least already partially in todays price.

I read the daily rns most days to see how many shares they buy back, over the past few weeks instead of a million pounds a day like it was months ago some days its been down to �50k or less, IAG is good for trading, no stamp duty and a tight enough spread to get in and out for a few p although for the volumes and market cap I think the market makers are taking the **** with the spread.

Well it dropped below �13as the pound carrys on rising so watching to try and buy some more. I have no idea about the management but I take your word for it that Emma is bad ( is she the CEO ?) , in the main I tend to assume that the capability of the management of all the companys I invest in do not correlate with their too high salarys, I try to guess if the company is a good one or not despite the management and discount their efforts, eg IAG. When IAG was �3 a few years ago nearly every analyst was saying they were not even worth that, if these guys can be so consistantly wrong it gives me hope. GSK is positioned to do well, managers come and go, Emma can be replaced if she does not pull her socks up. Google is showing a historic PE of 27 at a price of �12.97 is this wrong or is 40 the analaysts future estimate ? The downtrend will at some point reverse, the recent sharp drop for me helps to make a decision to buy, I am of course not always right but I have traded GSK several times over the past decade, I think this is the right level, who knows, we are all just guessing.

In at �13.07 today, will double up if it drops below �13 but as you mentioned in a previous post the dividend yield at this share price level is very supportive, even if the pound strengthens further and we maybe have a market correction I cannot see the price dropping much, there looks to be a lot more upside than downside. What really causes the ups and downs I believe is a mystery even to the professional analysts, I am just happy that they are so often wrong.