Member Info for luddite

Todays drop is probably related to todays rise in the pound, at this level its worth a punt . If the pound carrys on rising over the next days GSK could drop even lower but I have to press the buy button some time so may as well be today. , I rarely guess the bottom or the top but I am happy as long as I get the middle bit right.

Thats me out at 614 with a small turn helping pay for the christmas shopping, its dropped well below my 602 buy last wednesday and no doubt I have left money on the table but a bird in the hand and all that. I am in also with a long holding, I have no idea what the drop will be ex div, have played that game a few times and got it wrong although if it dips way below the dividend I may have a another little punt in the next few days hopeing for a rebound as we get dragged along on the coat tails of EZJ.

The market seems to rate EZJ and IAG as though they are in two different industries, I can well live with the price at todays level as its probably got upside for trading, I missed the top 30p in the run up to 676 but shorted it a few times on the way down, just loaded up again at 602 after the 3.30pm nosedive from 610 hopeing for another turn in the next few days. These days I dont bother trying to figure out why IAG goes up and down as long as I can guess it right more than I get it wrong , I have been following it for years and must admit the low PE ratio makes no sense but it does give me some confidence to trade. Last time I commented during the power glitch fiasco the doomsdayers on here were saying it was the end of BA, I said it was the time to buy in.

Winston270, can you please expand on how this might be done. I have been working for six months trying to get a UK broker to help me sell shares in a company that delisted from AIM but is still trading freely on the JSE. On the face of it I expected it be a bit of simple admin for the UK based broker to sort out but its turning into the Forsyth Saga and I am beginning to think that I may have to write it off completely. Initially I thought that my AIM listed shareholding would be recognised in Johanesburg as being mine and that I would probably get paid for the sale in Rand but so far we are miles away from the company even recognising my ownership. I would even accept my nominee holding being certificated then I could get a competant broker to deal with it but once delisted from AIM they have refused to help even with what I had hoped would be a simple task for them, obviously its not an easy matter to deal with. There is a procedure detailed on the internet but having read it I feel my broker is probably not intellectually capable enough to understand it.

norrab1 predicted ' Back to the 8's in nine days' in his post 20 June. I hope you did not try shorting Sky norrab1, there were a lot of shorters got margin calls today. Todays decisions were better than expected for Sky, thats why the price went up, Merdeoch will eventually prevail, I dislike him and his cronies as much as all the BT moaners on here, but who cares all that matters is making money.

pretty77, based on your post count of 1 you will need to put some meat on the bone of your statement thats if you are interested in having a discussion otherwise you are wasting your time posting. I have followed BA since it was floated, its one of my favourite shares because I make money from it, dont much like the service it provides or the actual company but its one of the best money trees around.

Counting my chickens before they have hatched, ex div 29 June so only up 3.3% but still not bad for a month.

Well its just touched 624, I recall on 31 May 17 Redrichmond was saying IAG was a sell at 604, how wrong he was. a nice 20p rise plus a dividend giving me a 4.3% profit within a month, its all just opinion and guesswork at the end of the day but some of us guess right.

Waiting until the dust settles in a few months is not the way to make money from IAG I have been in and out of BA and IAG since it floated 30 years ago, waiting a few months is a good way to miss the boat, I am in no doubt the share price is undervalued for long term holders. I also watch the ups and downs, the TA believers would say the share price was at its peak already and I would agree its due a short term down cycle irrespective of the debacle but long term I am expecting £8 within two years which with dividends on top makes would probably make it one of the better performing FTSE100 shares, I will not be waiting a few months.

Mr Market says the weekends debacle was a complete non event and he has kindly re set the shareprice back to last weeks level. Douche Bank are saying that reputational damage will be minimal due to short term memory of customers, by next week most of them will have completely forgotten it even happened. I am interested to know what was the real cause, my money is on the UPS system, I doubt it will be possible to do a cover up so I am confident we will eventually get to know what really happened. A voltage surge should not affect a UPS system and if there was a surge there are dozens of data loggers used in and around the data centre which record power parameters 24/7, if voltage was an issue it will come out eventually.

Yes I do my own research and in the case of IAG its completely contrarian to the nonsense written by the grandly named Professor Juan Pablo Vazquez Sempere. By the year end IAG will make a pre tax profit of 2.5 billion Euro which means they have this weekends debacle covered 20 times over, its been a non event as far as the stock market is concerned, someone else commented that IAG would drop further when the NYSE opened today , there was a 4p rise when it opened, if I were you two peeps I would avoid the shorting game altogether it can seriously damage your wealth if you have no idea what you are doing.

I think the compensation will cost anything up to £150 million but that was known by the market in Madrid yesterday and had little effect, the lost income is anyones guess but customers have no real loyalty and suffer from short term memory. I rarely fly with IAG but this debacle would not put me off, if anything I would expect in future they will improve their interuptable power supply system to make it more like the uninteruptable supply they are meant to have. IAG is quoted on the NYSE as an ADR and there is so little interest in it that you cannot even trade options, its the London listing that matters with IAG.

I read the professors article and it reads like an essay I would expect one of his MBA students to sumbit, its so wrong I dont really know were to start in taking it apart, anyway the price this morning opened about 4% down which is around what I expected. The good proffesor is typical of the breed, living in his ivory tower, cosseted in the warm security of academia and looking forward to a secure retirement with a gold plated pension, they are all the same. Someone you might expect to know his onions is Andrew Monk a fund manager who actually ran an airline at one point but sadly no, he is no better than the professor when it comes to guessing which way airline shares are heading. I called the IAG share price right when Monk was saying it was a sell quite a number of times in recent years but please take no notice of me I just enjoy the occassional ramble on bulletin boards, at the same time I was writing this post I have bought and sold enough IAG shares so I can now put my feet up for the rest of the day.

£15 M sells in one day is not fishy , I expect anything between £5 M and £40 M traded everyday . I see no evidence of more than average open interest in put contracts, I occasionally trade options when its worth doing which a lot of the time its not , No need to suspend the shares, the price dropped by around 2.6% in Madrid today last time I looked, I am expecting to trade IAG tomorrow but doubt we will get a massive drop, this is just another one of the many opportunities to trade this share.

Some deadwood politicians are rooting against the takeover and you take that as a sell signal ? My opinion is the takeover will go ahead, these things nearly always pan out the same way, there are always what at the time appear to be sensible reasons not to take part which after the event it can be seen were exaggerated. I did well out of SAB Miller even though I only bought in at a late stage and over the period it took to happen there were plenty of people saying it would not go through but they know no better than anyone else they are just guessing just like I am. For me to make a profit I need lots of people like norrab1 to believe it will not happen otherwise the price would just go straight to the offer price, there always have to hurdles for the horses to jump when punting on this type of thing.

I think you may not be right in the case of SAC but generally I would agree with you de listing mostly results in getting nothing because the shares become virtually illiquid. If TD Waterhouse cannot trade the shares for you on the JSX get them transferred to a broker that can and there are at least three that I know of, if its a low value holding the costs may not be worth it but thats the route I am taking as I now consider this company a POS. It should have been obvious to me that this would happen by just looking at the very low volumes traded on SAC on AIM but I let it slide, another lesson learned the hard way.

Very odd indeed, yesterdays 2 min candle chart on google not seen that pattern before on IAG but SXX has been rangebound for a long time and doing something very similar but other than that I am making no other comparison between the two and have no idea the causes other than very low volumes yesterday during the 0.5p ups and downs. is there more to it ? Today IAG 2 minute chart seems back to normal after this mornings spike up.

I am not concerned, the SKY share price would have been adversely affected prior to the takeover news but its now mainly driven by Murdochs ability to get the deal done rather than how well the business is doing and as each day passes the probability of him failing reduces . I have a clear 2% profit after stamp duty etc so happy enough with the rise so far, its just somewhere better than the bank to park money for a few months.

63000 bought in the 2 minutes prior to the tip being released, I will keep my thoughts to myself for now on that, followed by a rise of over 20%, I think I will wait a week there is nothing worse than getting spiked.

My risk assesment differs from yours and its probably a good job it does because if everyone assessed risk the same way I couldnt make money so I really appreciate that your risk assesment differs from mine. I remember having a similar conversation in 2015 when I bought SAB Miller after the news was supposedly in the price at around £37 and I came late as usual, that was a great place to park money for a 21 % return, plus a dividend, I was warned about the risk that Inbev would not get the deal done, seemed obvious to me that they would but there was no shortage of people saying it would fail, I am as sure as I can be the Roo will not fail to get sky, I am of course not 100% certain, I put the probability at around 80% and I get a lot more right than I get wrong.