Member Info for luddite

Thanks for the clarification Seifert, now I see clearly (after looking up the meaning of another new word). I dont have contempt for Mr Gross, jealous of his success maybe and unwilling to help him feather his nest but I do take notice of what the big piggies have to say because I am in no doubt they know more about making money than I do. The endless speculation and volatility is what we need to make money it does not matter if its upward or down just as long as we have it and when we dont have it then just write covered calls and you will still make money. Anyway what are your predictions for IAG this year and when do you anticipate we should place our short bets, I stll see IAG as having more to go in an upward direction but obviously I must be wrong ?

What a load of tripe written by Mr Gross, you could have warned us Siefert just to go straight to the salient points listed at the end of the article. Mr Gross would say that wouldnt he, what else can he say when he is such a big piggy that any meaningful investment decision he makes can actually move the markets. Contrast that with us little piggies whose little financial bites cannot move markets but we at least individually have the possibility to make very large percentage gains for ourselves if we think for ourselves and make the right decisions, the big piggies just dont like that at all. Reading between the lines my take on the article is leave the thinking and decision making to the big piggies like him, give him your money and he will make you 3 or 4% and you should be grateful for this, no thanks Mr Gross, the article would not be out of place as an additional chapter in George Orwells 1984.

Zak Mir thinks 5p possible with next month or two in article today , not that I pay much attention to TA but he does seem to guess it right sometimes.

sorry , the LSE software is getting very pc these days **** was s_lag

Yes , I think the whole sector has been knackered but its its now been flavour of the month for the past 18 months , EZJ have done well , also LUV on the US market . My problem with EZJ and Ryanair is although they trounced the arrogant BA/IAG and other national carriers who wrongly thought these upstarts would go the way of Freddie Laker they have eaten the fat off the back of national carriers which is great but where to now when they have cut their costs as far as they can and grown to be as big as IAG ? IAG a little belatedly now realise that EZJ and RYA will not go away and seem now to be taking their own business seriously. Long term ( by the end of 2015 maybe ) I will be out of IAG but its got more to go. Please feel free to **** off IAG, I have no particular liking for them they are just another share which I would dump without a second thought but I follow it fairly closely and am interested to know the ups and downs of what makes the price move.

There is nothing amiss , at least nothing I am aware of . It was fun last year predicting the price would be £4 by Christmas but really anyones guess is as good as another. My opinion is there is further to go on IAG this year, the whole transport sector has been on its knees for a decade, I think all thats happening is we are seeing a recovery, IAG has been 1/3 higher than its present price, sooner or later it will reach a new all time high its just a matter of getting your timing right.

Your right Hughsie we are not getting the same intra day drop as last year , hoping that means we have good support for the price. I am not buying more SSE as trying hard to keep a well balanced diverse portfolio but sometimes the temptation becomes too much and I get suckered into AIM shares which so far has not been a positive experience.

I get that part Hughsie its normal share price behaviour but in many cases what happens is that on ex div day the price drops way more than the dividend , last year SSE dropped by something like 60 or 70P on the day , I cant remember exactly but during the day I think by 2pm it had bottomed out then bounced back by the end of the day and within a few days was on the up again. During 2013 the best single day to buy was 23rd January, that situation happens a lot on ex dividend day for many shares and with the very narrow spread on large cap shares it can present a very good opportunity even for day traders which I dont do myself .

Ex div on 23rd Jan 2013 was the low point for the year , price dropped by over twice the 25.2p dividend , I topped up that day at £13.88, it dropped to around £13.82 then bounced back up , I have no idea why the price seems to drop this way but have nearly always found it to be the best day to top up so I am expecting £12.90 to £13 this time around. SSE is a good long term investment thats easy to see, all you need do is look at total returns with dividends re invested its way ahead of some of the high flyers but the charts rarely take this into account although I think the Germans prefer this method. I love this wall of worry stuff about the economy it makes me feel secure, if we all get happy clappy at the same time I will sell.

I agree an informative and clear article and very unusual in that it contains information that can be used profitably which is lacking in most of the tripe I read.

Well there we are then, a nice 10% rise in less than a week and settling on a bid price at 666 not that I believe in the devil at all. Proper shares beat AIM hands down every time. In the unlikely event that anyone apart from Siefert reads my posts I should add a correction to my previous post , I was in fact referring to 2013 for the 70% rise for RTN and not 2014 which of course has only just begun.

I was wondering if the monk who started this off 800 years ago with his special brew would have imagined it growing to be worth over a billion pounds today, probably not as that would have been ten times more than Scotlands GDP. Anyway its risen by 70% in 2014 so I would like to consider it could be due to its divine ancestry in the absence of any sensible reason and wondering if there is more to come ( looking upwards as I type) , yes I have a message , another 10% is on the cards but the waters will be choppy.

Tapering will be a non event even when it gets into gear, the FED has indicated that low interest rates are with us for a long time, interest rates will have to rise in the UK but not by an amount that will significantly effect SSEs attraction as a high yielder . It is unlikely that higher interest rates will make SSE reduce its dividend, it has not always used borrowings to cover part of the dividend, its unlikely it would need to do this long term. I do not agree that high div stocks will underperform but in any case I do not buy the market or sectors, I stick to stock picking. Its essential to take a view on where the bottom is and the top, we may have an eventual decline in the market but right now its heading up along with SSE, you are understandably miffed because its not doing what you expected and £11 is not happening any time soon.

Merry Christmas Seifert , I would like to thank Santa and the elves for the late rally which has delivered a share price for IAG of £4 on Christmas eve which is what we predicted three months ago, must be beginners luck ? All I need now is for the FTSE100 to hit 7000 and Lonmin £3.50 and I will celebrate with a glass of sherry and a shortbread biscuit . Having read your latest analysis I agree with nearly all of it except that volumes will not dry up, maybe true for the next week or so whilst the peoples are on holiday but now I think there are plenty of good bargains.

I enjoy TA , years ago it was akin to being a witch or practicing Voodoo but with the advent of computers and free charts its become so easy you might as well do it, the Japanese martial arts style language that surrounds it can be highly entertaining . Being a luddite my main TA tool is a plastic ruler which I line up on the screen looking for a good set of tramlines which is what we have had with IAG for over a year. Yes you are right every angle is covered by too many people but most of them do not make money because they cannot manage the sentimentals and completely ignore the fundamentals, they try to apply day traders rules to long term swing trades , I have done it myself and found it does not work. Algorythmic and high frequency traders are no better placed for long term swing trading , sure enough you cannot beat them on their home turf which is a time frame less than 24 hours but on monthly and even weekly trades and options they are hopeless. Take a look at the annual reports of some of the HF operators , they are not impressive, we have a few years to go before computer programs corner the market , so far away that it will make no difference to me. We will all know when computers take over because the volatility which makes the markets thrive today will dissapear completely , maybe it will be a good thing who knows but I prefer things the way they are today or even yesterday , thats why I am a luddite.

My short term predictions are not normally so accurate otherwise I would rich , maybe I should do the lottery this week although I did expect the price to have been marked up by an early morning Viagra type rise of 10% rather than the slow rise we experineced throughout the day . The deal which is said to be on the table looks good to me ( insofar as any 'deal' cannot be trusted until you have your hands on the cash) for anyone buying now as outlined by detsitute broker , I cannot see much downside risk at the moment unless we have a general market crash or more gremlins make themselves known. There are of course a large number of shareholders for whom this deal is not very nice but I imagine that lots of people will jump in for a quick turn.

The sneaky twats releasing an RNS at 4.23pm on a Friday afternoon just when I could still have done something but I was having my tea instead , at least one buyer was on the ball £53,000 worth at 4.28pm , any bets on the % mark up on Mondays opening , it got to be worth another 10% ? I dont mind 7am or 5pm but 4.23pm on a Friday afternoon !

Good thanks . Yes, my sensible trades on the sensible markets are in the black but I have more than enough AIM dogs to make me question my sanity, they seemed like a good idea at the time. EVO was my most rabid dog but at least I managed to cut my losses before it became a lobster pot. I am concerned today, Bloomberg pundits are hyping up taper talk again saying it could happen in December which is not fair because I was so looking forward to Santas rally. The possibility of early tapering has already been reflected in market sentiment for a few days to no ill effect so maybe there is a chance a little tapering might not crash the markets but on the other hand I cannot see it helping. On balance I will stick with my expectation of a santa rally before I need to worry about a possible 300 point correction on the DOW which I think will happen soon. I just knew that you would have some system for working out market moves, I would never have guessed Greek mythology but its just as valid as some of the latest traders systems on offer right now . You are going to have a long wait for 1163 on SSE, I think its just turned upwards again, a director spending lots on his own shares and no indication of a cut in the dividend is a good enough indicator for me.

The worm has turned. I do not aprove of these directors getting paid more than me but I do approve of them buying shares in their own companies so have we seen their bottom, I am inclined to think we have ?

I cannot find you having been lambasted in previous posts, I feel the conversation so far has been very jovial do you not think ? I also cannot find anything about the SSE dividend being cut, have you got a link ? The goodness of SSE having returned over £30/share is in my ISA, so its very good and no tax to pay . Reinvesting dividends is for the long term before you see much benefit, the share charts favour companies that pay no dividends but when redrawn with dividends re invested its a different story. There are pundits on Bloomberg saying tapering is on the way and just as many saying its not, the fiscal cliff and shutdown was flavour of the month a few weeks ago and now taper talk is coming back in fashion. I agree if tapering is going to happen will not be before March but then the can could just be kicked down the road once again . I dont see a lower share price prompting SSE to cut the dividend, the bod are not watching the share price drop then deciding they may as well cut the dividend, it normally works the other way around.