Member Info for luddite

The last few days would have been scary had I taken out a larger long CFD , at one stage it was showing a 50% loss but now on a modest profit ( at least enough for a turkey) but I will hold on for £46.80 as I need a bonus of mince pies and a bottle of whiskey. Please don't takeda any notice of me as I am an out and out gambler. For the few remaining SHP I have in my ISA I am hopeing for £47 but not really too concerned if I end up with cash and a few takedas outside the isa, looking at the depressed state of the overall market today I would take a punt on them at least going to 5500 yen within 12 months.

ali1947fish, I hope you sold at £46.80 before todays pull back? If not I am betting there will be another chance to sell at around the £47 level or even higher before 8 January , I would not want to sell my few remaining SHP at the £45.31 I am being quoted. Barclays are not even listing SHP anymore when I try to buy, they seem to be just offering to sell, but its still possible to go long or short via CFD or options. At £45.30 I am tempted to go for a small punt long using a CFD to close at £46.80.

In 1975 I voted in what I believed at the time was a decision to join the EU ( despite that decision having already been taken), after 40 years of watching the crap that is the EU I voted to leave. The negotiation is nonsense, there is no need we should just crash out. The ' most powerful trading block' is anything but, Germany is the power, the rest is a rabble. The remainers cannot face the fact that the EU has a large trade surplus with the UK, it will do us no harm at all to crash out. In 1975 I was part of the 'future generations' , it will do the new ' future generations' no harm at all to be free of federal europe. Something else the remainers conveniently forget is that it is not just one years trade surplus that has benefited europe, with the surplus and without the compound effect of our budget contributions over the decades europe would be a much poorer place.

..... on the other hand what the hell is going on at Barclays, as of today they will not allow purchases only sells, anyone know why ? Other brokers like IG etc are continuing to allow buy and sell.

.......on the other hand as a trader I will be looking for a dead cat bounce opportunity, there were quite a few to choose from yesterday.

Takeda tanked by 5.3% towards the end of the Japanese trading day, I am expecting a similar markdown when SHP opens this morning, on the plus side if there is one its that we will have a new trading range to work in which should give increased volatility. I must admit I did not see yesterdays Takeda gap down coming even though the overall market was having a down day. The,market sentiment is now focussing on the deal and its financing rather than the various country and shareholder approvals, Takeda are offering 25% less than the failed Abvie offer, the directors of SHP do not have shareholder value very much in mind.

ali fish , there is no need to worry about getting stuck with Takeda , you have the option to sell right up to the deadline in January, I sold this morning again but now kicking myself as I could have done better but even though the arbitrage margin has narrowed right down there is still a percent or two to be made so if the price gets down below £46.40 I will be back in for the last squeeze of the lemon. Its all now down to the Takeda share price and yen/$/£ exchange rate movements. Takeda is on its bottom so any sign of a santa rally or improvement in sentiment to Takeda could give another turn, on the other hand if Takeda drops at the rate it has been since 27 Sept it could mean todays price is the best, its all just a gamble as far as I am concerned. I am a little sceptical of TA but look at the chart back since 2012, could be its due another upturn ?

Marineville this is not a placing its a rights issue which even though I hate this deal and would vote against it is not the dilution you get with a placing of an AIM share , at least even if you do not take up your rights they will be sold and the money credited to you, its like the muggers stealing your money then giving you some of it back so you will not feel as much out of pocket.

Bloomberg predicting 2% bounce for jap stocks on 22nd Nov so I am hopeing Takeda gets some benefit which should raise SHP over £46.40 sometime during the day hopefully a spike up at 8am at which point I will sell again unless it looks like momentum carrying it a worthwhile amount higher.

I am an idiot , god knows how I ever make money at this game by not keeping up with the news, the EU conditionally cleared it on 20 Nov so what we have now is a pure arbitrage which alters my perception of the risk and means I will be looking to double up on what I already bought if we get dips below the £45.70 level.

ali fish, of course taking the offer is a done deal its already decided by the big players. all that remains is for the last hurdle on 22 Nov EU clearance unless its delayed even further, there is a 6% upside to £48.72 at todays Takeda price of 4319yen so market sentinment not giving us much more room for arbitrage but still a better bet than many. I dont want Takeda shares but I am hopeing to milk the ups and downs right to the last minute then sell the lot at what I hope will be something over £49 a share. I have just bought back in again at £45.65, I don't think the EU will block Tekeda but you never know, its a gamble.

paradigm I sold again this morning at £46.49 and I am now dithering about hopeing to buy back again but at the moment at £46.17 I cannot decide if it will drop further or bounce up again. The stamp duty exemption is of course because SHP is an Irish company listed in London and exempt just like many other great FTSE100 traders like IAG and Glen etc, sod the AIM, this is where proper amounts of money can be made with less risk of losing the lot.

I sold at £47.33 and got back in again at £45.30, so far its dropped back almost immediately after each leg up, this has been one of the best traders around for months now and with no stamp duty to pay and a very tight spread it beats AIM shares every time. I am hopeing for at least another three ups and two downs before Takeda eats my lunch.

Yes thank you, I got out easily enough at £ 26 but regret not being a bit greedier and gambling on £23, never mind its lining up for another drop, it will probably eventually get down to £15 or less, I am waiting for the dead cat to stop bouncing, but at £24 its not been much of a bounce.

What a frustrating day trying to buy a decent amount of SIA, seems the MMs had a special higher buy price just reserved for me every time I hit buy. I will be trying to buy more next week if the price stays around 80p and when it comes time to sell the same thing will of course happen, it will be difficult to sell in one lot but will be all worthwhile if the price gets to £1.

I agree its looking like could be on its bottom, I have traded this a few times but its always been hard to buy a worthwhile amount of SIA and just as hard to sell them on a quote and deal and I really don't like at best orders. I will set a limit buy order for a modest amount at 81p and watch if drops further and buy a few more if 80p is reached then set a limit sell order at £1 which could take till end of January but worth a punt.

I missed the chance to short again at 3450, if it bounces up again this next few days then I will have a punt on it going down with target of 2600.

Japan Fair Trade Commission approved today but that was almost a given thing so no big deal, the next stage is the EU which is less of a given thing but my money is on it getting approval which as long as there is no market crash in the meantime will probably see another step up in the price. I feel its still probably worth a punt even at todays price but who knows what could happen over the next few months to the downside. There has been lots of opportunity to trade SHP, its always fallen back after each leg up, great trading range this past few weeks.

correction ; 30.50 the 'cash' price on the IG platform for the NASDAQ , £26.50 on lse, too easy to press the wrong button on IG.

Its back up to £30.50 now, I am nearly always late to the party and always leave early so rarely catch the very bottom or tops. I am now awaiting to see if its a dead cat bounce but at this level it looks like its lining up for another short.