Member Info for LuckyLuciano

Hi although I started this post with "coal price" didn't realised so.many are focusing on it.....considdering the massive discount to fundamental Tga is trading, possibly coal price is the least relevant info. No doubt TGA rise since ipo is also thanks to colal or but it was also very undervalued out right. Indee would be fundamental to be able to realise how much Tga has rised due to color and how much just because it was undervalued from the start. Another interesting comparison would be against peers.... Will look in to it soon...

https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2246704-australian-thermal-coal-dilemma-deepens

Just to be aware most info from annual results are already knows, as SLP quarterly updates are not jus production but financials as well.

I see 70ish as previous resistance and no catalist news on the horizont.....

Just the point I wanted to make. I know won't be appreciated much but.... This has to be bearish for pgm prices to rebound up and Slp sp be 4% down. Interesting how ths sp is stable.

Just the point I wanted to make. I know won't be appreciated much but.... This has to be bearish for pgm prices to rebound up and Slp sp be 4% down. Interesting how ths sp is stable.

Hi RVO is this correct?
https://www.investing.com/commodities/zce-thermal-coal-futures

This is getting ridiculous another 6% up on China market.

https://www.investing.com/commodities/coking-coal-futures

Have to say momentum buy when a sp is on the up, is much easier than trying to pick to bottom.
No doubt right now is better to focus on Iron ore price trend and technical, then sp. I am reading that iron price are set to fall further, yet this week gone the drop has been quite huge and one would expect a rebound. If topping up is probably better to wait for the sp starting to come back up, together with iron ore price bottoming.
FXPO sp is now below 200MA blue line and this may become resistance for a drop to the green lines support. The RSI is oversold but not at its lowers ever level, red line.
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_5123b1ec10e4249de9f970201214cf81.png

Thanks for the info. I have taken a smal position yesterday in Tga with aim to average down or up depending on the makers... Its funny for me to buy Tga now when I did look at it on flotation day some 15% down at 115ish, back then too many unknown and a mix feeling on the sector kept me away from investing. I did later had a small trade in and out at 190p level but again... No financial numbers out and no much consensus like now. Imo Tga remain a share.. (like many) subject to coal price trend. Wod be interesting to have some opinions on foward forecast on coal prices, I was reading that I think Indonesia did recently stop export of coal for the benefit of domestic consumption, it has to do with keeping down prices and is a pluss for higher international prices. Beside coal but still connected to this sector is steel. I have been Investing heavily on iron ore and coal and steel are all price and trend connected. After recent big drop in iron ore price the trend is for prices to remain low for the rest of 2021, there are fantastic iron ore producers out there with a very low PE but imo is likely they will trade sideway if not making new lows. On the other hand I am particularly exited about US steel producers (apologies if not completely to do with Tga). Recent China cutting down steel productions and export due to pollution, imo is creating a great opportunity for Western steel producers even more now that price of iron ore raw material is cheaper. Some recent financial numbers of these company out recently are fantastic, similar to Tga. Price of steel is set to remain high till H2/22 at least. Better I stop here... But if you like some tips on this space Pl lete ke know, any opinion is very welcomed.

No need to be paranoid about deramping, I just mentioned S&P because putting few heads together it could be a great top up time for SLP and many battered shares out there, when it bottoms. But if you prefer keep congratulating each other about how fantastic SLP fundamentals are while its sp keep falling down, well I suppose I got the wrong board then.

Ok thanks for the reply...is not that what you say is specifically stated anywhere I have been reading,
Indeed the results headline is for the 6 months, but I am sure what you are saying is correct. Thankx

Please correct me if I am wrong, tented to buy here and been watching this rising togeteher with coal price.
Buy H1 Net profit came out at some 300mil Rand or £14.5 millions, for a company with now a market cap of £350mil is not that much of a profit ....am I missing something?
Are my calculation wrong?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-reflation-trade-is-fading-heres-what-to-avoid-and-where-to-seek-refuge-in-commodities-11629457036?rss=1&siteid=rss

If of any interest.
I was very roughly calculating where FXPO will stand comes end of the year results, with iron ore price fading.......nobody knows how much.
Shal we say H2 will be half of H1 profit for a total of $960 mil. or some £700mil?
Equivalent to current sp PE of 3, very low but with main markets and Iron ore price keeping heading down, the market will sell out of panic.
Look for a slow down in sp decrease and stability on iron ore price for a re-entry but possibly even then, there is no guaranty that will rise back up.

Electric car will definitely have an impact on PGM, but this is too fat away to have a near term effect on PGM prices. Even from the article is not clear when this will be felt by the precious metal prices, due to many variables. Near terms though we have an over extended prices out of covid pandemic that imo don't match up with demand and this is not due to cip shortage, or not entirely....
I am just wondering what will happen if also Rhodium price start to come down. I am invested in Zimplat and was awaiting full year results out end of the month, but its sp has started also to come down and will probably sell it comes tonight or tomorrow, I am sure it wont make new heights even with results (fantastic) out soon.

On Cips shortage I am gong to bring out my conspiracy theory.
Isn't it possible that although there may have been some little cips production disruption, due to covid back in 2020, the issue is/should by now be resolved?!
Isn't it possible that the main reason for car sale slump is just huge unemployment and covid uncertainties?
I mean how many people would by a new car these days...all consumers indicators are down, retail sale down, travelling down even online sales have slow down. Wouldn't you postpone the purchase of a new car given current circumstances?
Jus a conspiracy theory.

Velo you talked about key levels for S&P, what are you looking at?

Yes Us market reversed a little but only thanks to some Tech stocks...
Some individual shares on the US market way oversold today may bounce back tomorrow to keep the indexes in green, but the overall trend in down. China economy slowing down, delta variant and Fed talks about ending bond buy back the main culprit.
For PGM like other commodities but few there is also the price pressure I suppose mainly related to China slowing down.
Yet there are trillion $ new money circulating the market soon some lows will be bought back....imo

I suppose you can take any time frame and have different view on this matter....
One thing is for sure and that is since the 4th August till now Fxpo is down 28% and China FE62%, 16% (from 181 to 151)
Now I am sure at one point Fxpo will find the support but it will likely to be below its intrinsic fundamental value and that will be the right moment to buy back in.
Toady another -5% on Fe...and a massive drop on the 65% Fe which seems to me way overdone, we may be close to buy back time?!
http://www.custeel.com/en/csi.jsp

Anyone with a view on increasing profitability for steel makers, now that iron ore price is coming down?
It could be also exacerbated by China reducing steep production?!