Member Info for LuckyLuciano

I too love to see a link supporting the apparent coal price drop of today.... But I know already RVO will not provide it.... Because is. Not true. I have checked 2 sources and September price are firmed at 153ish $/t like last week. Same goes when BCrader posted on Fxpo board (iron ore down 7%)another massive bulls@it from from the guy.... Did asked agai to provide link but nada..

It does seem some here sold today and now they whant a cheap price to buy back. Be aware of what people post and aways ASK FOR LINKS AND PROOVES.

Is anyone aware if some AAL Directors hold shares in Tga?

Will look at Yancoal Australia later on or tomo.

Great thanks I have been looking for some comparison but most producers are too big, Chinese or diversified operation.
Our of your list I had a quick look at Whitehaven Coal (AU)
Similar production volumes of TGA.
I check H1 and FY results because coal price changed a lot from June 2020 to June 2021. Well This company made a loss of $94mil in H1 and still a loss of similar amount at FY, plus an exceptional item for 456mil.
They also have neat $1billion net debit.
Market cap is just above £2 billions (wow) not sure about reserves comparison with TGA but at first look if AU market value the same as UK market, all things been equal TGA should be at 5 times today price..?! Am I missing something?

imo it opened too high too soon and been close to all time high there was some profit taking. I was afraid it would go all the way down to 300 but it hold well above Friday close. Going forward (if noting happens to coal price or something else major)
if it carry on the meteoritic rise since results should close the week at new hight.
https://tvc-invdn-com.investing.com/data/tvc_1c78254252a86dce0307e44eef95669f.png

https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/IFFF22/futures-prices?viewName=main
according to this info price still at all time high....I have set a price notification to my email account

Indeed the issue of coal v renewable is an argument that crosses many areas of thought including philosophy.... Lol. But out there in the market what I see is an unbalanced bias towards renewable that sone or later has to come back down to heath. I have just sold my last shares of lithium mining.... I mean there are dozens of wana bee mine out there already priced to full production, the conundrum goes higher price of lithium would create new developer, but refrain new battery developments. There are many other chemistry based solutions for battery but most in early development and competing with each other. The government's got their policies wrong with carbon offset, and a lot of companies venturing in to renewable are loss making, this is a bubble that may well end up in tears. I am not happy to be invested in coal but I am not a policy maker, if I was I would first focus on carbon capture in a big way, not carbon ofsett. Boris all the way to power promised to plant millions more trees, reality is since he is in power tree planting in uk has declined. With SOME of the profit from Tga I will surely do my bit in this area.

I remember Novacyt going from £1 to £12 in less than 1 year (mind you at one point it was at 10p sp)
bought and sold many time out of fear and some time greed....sp driven by news flow and expectation not the easiest share to hold tight. With TGA might be quite different, would be impossible for its share price to reach full potential in the space of 3 months, but at the same given recent coal price high I am hoping for minimal retrace. There was a relatively long period of price consolidation in July, but since result out it has gone up almost in a straight line. If correct we must make a new week high.

Is interesting to ponder on how this IPO came about....No doubt at the time of valuation and analyses on how much this new entity was worth, brokers and financial institutions advising on the deal, tuck a slightly pessimistic view, if anything because a low valuation would rise the chases of a successful IPO. In turn AAL wont need to for out another £200mil contingency fund.
I am not even thinking to talk about assets valuations, but on the share price versus profit, the initial £200mil market cap imo can be seen very low or very high depending on how much optimistic or pessimistic you are. Not an easy task to value TGA ipo just out of pandemic and with coal price hitting near all time lows..
Still by looking at coal price for the 12 months prior June 2021 flotation, my assumption is that TGA would have been a loss making enterprise.
In the end they went for £200mil valuation unaware that coal price would almost double since begin of 21.
Today TGA is just double initial valuation with coal prices projected to stay high short medium term.
If I can draw a parallel with iron ore high and recent lows, what stopped iron ore price has been China cutting steel production and imposing measures for price control. With coal China as the same price problem but because is soo dependent on it, the only measure (for now) is to reopen some 15 mines and start to produce more coal to keep prices under control. Is almost the opposite reaction that happened with iron ore, and now in the equation there is also Indonesia and India.
I see the only danger for coal price been Australia/China relationship improving ....will it happen? No doubt the first to move in this direction has to be China but they don't seems in the mood to go for it...
Now for the ramping bit.....
I read about target prices at £4 or 5, but TGA is not a single mine asset like many miners out there, moreover coal operation is one of the simplest mining business on the planet. A net profit multiple of 5 at current coal price would bring a share price easily above £10. I see API4 contracts for October and November higher than now and has to be a good sign.

https://www.mining.com/web/aluminum-makers-in-india-plead-for-coal-as-power-squeeze-bites/
https://www.mining.com/web/indonesia-suspends-coal-exports-from-34-mining-companies-media/

Information on realised coal price and production are on page 9 and 10 of recent financials..
https://thungela.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/downloads/investors/TGA-Int-2021.pdf

BCrader
you come across too patronising (if you know the meaning..)
the use of "finally decided to join us" came across as you own TGA out right.
Anyhow about FXPO your was an attempt to manipulate opinions by lies not facts.
I remember you started to post with title "IRON ORE DOWN 7%" when it was merely down 2/3%on the day, been invested in FXPO at the time you can't blame me for having to reply to your posts...
You are welcome to to ring the alarm bell on coal price, like with iron ore but please stick to facts and possibly next time post links in support.
Lastly BCrader my attention right now is also on US Steel companies, some Biotech's and planning an entry on Aluminium.

Indeed a unique opportunity not to be missed.
AAL sold its coal operation out of getting green credentials, the decision and value calculation must have occurred when coal price was much lower, and possibly with a further discount to make sure the demerger was going trough smoothly.
Now after almost trebling sp in few months is understandable for people to take profits, many will sell and reinvest at higher price. IMO the best tactics is to buy and hold possibly average up, to time the market with 5/10% swings is impossible and in long terms will bring lower returns. (but I suppose can be fun)
In theory if investors buy and hold hence price going up, the market maker will find less and less share in circulation, meaning that will be forced to bring the price higher faster, so that investors will take profits and some shares will end up back in circulation....
Indeed in the last few days the sp of TGA seems to have accelerated upwards, not warranted will carry on like this also because we need to keep an eye on coal price....
I too was thinking today was a red day and ready to top up but atm we are in green, let see the end of the day.

Happy I double up today at 297ish....been waiting to buy cheaper but seems is not going to happen.
Coal price up, Q3 result out soon been first result as independent entity I assume will rerate the sp. The rate TGA is going up been constant but sure...I suppose reached the true value it will settle in a range, in stead of retrace, fundamentals are there to stay, unless coal price collapse. I may add the final top up, I know averaging up is a pain, but is also a sign that things are going well. Better than averaging down and seen the sp keep falling. lol

Is interesting the concept of not loading up too much on one share or vice versa..
Warren Buffett once said does who diversify the portfolio is because they are not sure or don't know what are doing...
Indeed if one is sure that one share is going up more than another, it would make sense to load as much as possible on that share.
In Black Jack card game the way to make money was to count the card coming out and bet heavy when the moment is favourable, people got rich in Vegas before the Casino introduced the rule to shuffle the card pack more often and start to play with 2-4 deck of card to dilute the card counting probabilities.
Personally the most money I made is when I bet high on one single share and I still think if one posses the attributes to analyse the market and identify the right investment, is the simplest and more effective way to richness.

It does look SA is following London, now both 3% higher since previous post.
Funny how apparently both exchange one at same time but today at one point there was 10% difference in price....

Hi
I read that SA is the main exchange for TGA, it may well be but London has 1 million more shares traded on day average.
Right now in London is up 5% and in SA the opposite down 5%, will be interesting to see which of the 2 exchange is converging.

Guys lots of respect for your efforth and time spent after this share... I am not going to enter in any debate on pgm market, PE, eps, share price, fundamental or technical analyses. Just saying that my Valneva covid19 vaccine share is up 50% in a week and more to come....my interest in pgm is on Zimplat and in with a small profit awaiting imminent result to sell on a sp spike if will happen.... I am. Ot willing to await the chip shortage issue to be resolved or the EV green revution not to materialise or else, to. Ake a profit out of my investment. Right now I see Steel an interesting investment space for 2 obvious reasons, one been spending infrastructures, ghe other been China cutting steel production due to pollution and high iron ore high prices, covid19 vaccine and biotect is still interesting investing in, but one has to trade carefully as some company have already reached their best sell by date. Back on pgm and in particular chip shortage... I would really like to know how much recent cuts in car production is due to lack of chips availability or lack in demand. Anyhow for pgm related shares imo is likely that after the recent rollercoaster rise and retrace, they will be trading in range for a while, that could be 1 or 2 years....

Sorry to intrude not invested in any...but a good investment strategy would depend if selling and investing in JLP is to average down or up. Personally I wouldn't average up but diversify, as there are many good opportunities out there, more over JLP is still PGM even if less so.