Member Info for LuckyLuciano

SR123 so you sold Tga and now want to buy cheaper..... Hurry up then.

Dabbler1 Pl let me explain. Charts are records of sp past performance based on investors behaviour. On its own a chart means nothing, but together with other info gives sometime a very accurate visibility going forward. No doubt more data is in the chart and more reliable is the prediction. Right now a chart on tga imo can be usefull to figure out where Tga sp will find support.

The thing is.... If some brokers or market maker have decided to set targets of buy and sell on a share, in short time they will almost always succede. No doubt they also keep an eye on investor boards just to scan the market sentiment, is not that they need to has practically they can move the share price as they like, the only danger is to push too much the envelop and lose buy or sell opportunity out of other financial institutions competitors, but not retail investors.... Unless Tga was in the Robihoid radar which is not. I say don't focus on the sp but on coal price and fundamentals, as mentioned before also by some from thus board that are now painting a gloomy picture of Tga... Only with the profit of June when coal price was below 100$/t this company would be making £170million net profit this is a little more than a PE of 2 when other coal miners out there are trading 5 times more than Tga., have lots of debits and yet their sp is on the rise..... Again i am taking about June profit, comes end of September Tga will have another £100 million profit in the bank. Sorry about the ramping. On coal price (I love to get others opinions) the trend is very bullish, almost too bullish to be true, maybe this is the view some are taking hence the lower target price and panicking. But all I read around is lots of political measures that will push the price even higher. Note that coal If I got this right is not a digitalised commodity which price can change very quickly our of speculative bets.... These are contracts set in different market which price change more out of market fundamentals. The only recent negative policy for coal is the recent reopening of some mines in Mongolia to satisfy increasing demand in China, I am reading that this in not going according to plans and in any case it would translate in increasing production during increasing demand which may just halt coal price at thus levels. Anyhow on technical for Tga I have traced some Fibonacci levels which give me a top at 398, they match 330 as 23% from top and 290ish at 38% retrace.... Any tech out there....

Indeed the conundrum on coal v renewable is something to ponder on very carefully and only once one has all the element in place for valuation is possible to start to draw some conclusions. The rise in coal price perversely is something that professional analyst will take in to account to make even lower valuation on coal miners...the trend is going in this direction and would be politically wrong to have different views.
But the reality is completely different, if one clear out all the noise the trend is super bullish for energy and coal.
In my view there are lots of obstacles going for renewable, starting from wrong government policies to infrastructures issues, to market prices, eventually we will get there but much later and probably it won't make any difference. This is the irony of bee a human been......wow I am starting with philosophy and have not drank any alcohol yet....where is that bottle.
No doubt there is lots of rumors and enphaiss

https://www.mining.com/web/chinas-coal-prices-hit-record-high-on-tight-supply-worries/

https://www.gem.wiki/Global_list_of_coal_mining_companies_and_agencies
Many more useful info and links on coal and producing companies.

Thanks tedmak
this is why I posted also links on Chinese export coal price and cooking coal, up 4% and 7% just because it seemed strange that on the same day API4 Richard Bay was down 8%.
I have my technical view of TGA recent price retrace, and has nothing to do with coal price.

...so hopefully back to valuation.
Yancoal Australia much bigger production than TGA or Whithaven Coal, some 40 million tone sale.
Market Cap right now £2.2 billions.
H1 to June 2021 Rev 1.77billions Au$, and loss of 177mil le tax benefit to a loss of 129mil AU$.
539 mil cash but a current al long term debit of roughly 4.5billions. (double market capital)
Well between Yancoal and Withaven they both didn't managed to make a profit not even during 6 month to June21, when coal prices start to rise. They seems to have higher cash costs per tone compared to TGA, which is one of its strength if Rand behave.
One would assume that recent coal price rise post June is priced in for the Australian producers, their sp is rising so current market cap should be a benchmark for valuation comparison with TGA.
Even between Yancoal and Whitehaven the fact that they have a similar market cap is puzzling, I suspect much larger production base of Yancoal is a great advantage when price start to rise, but in the other hand they also have a much bigger debit.
Thungela has no debit and some cash at bank. Similar production of Whitehaven but the managed to make a decent profit for the month of June. Mind you I am looking forward for q3 results as confirmation of consistency with accounting...
But even if we disregard the profit for June21, assuming a break even, TGA is still valued one fifth of Whitehaven, which also has 1 billion AU$ in Debit and higher cash cost/t.
Comments/corrections are very welcomed.

Just food for thought BC...I am still here. But predictably you are let say.... not in the mood to pick up this conversation.
Shame I though I made a good point. Well I will read this investor board on TGA just for price updates then!

I whish you elaborate a bit more on China making us rich...by the way if that is what is happening, because lots of jobs from Europe were exported to China, for not talking about intellectual property thief...But I am not blaming China either for this, is just that won't roll down a red carpet for them. So pleas elaborate thanking China...what you mean?

Peel Hunt I know them.... Market and investor manipulators don't like them very much.

Yes letz get back to focus on Tga... If if the alleged coal price has dropped today and consecuently Tga sp is dropping, imo is something to worry about. A lot. This means that recent coal price rise is fully priced in Tga sp.... I am surprise that BC is not calling the top on coal price this time. About ramping Tga I don't seem to be the only one here, I hope I won't be accused of making other people loosing money again this time. Still hoping for some useful insight on tga valuation and fundamental comparison from this board, beside updates on prices....

Tjay09 you are welcomed but please do also your own research.....I do make mistakes on occasion.
About FXPO the issue was not the 7% price drop on iron ore but the fact that no link was provided. I suppose some people pretend to be believed out right for what they say in a chat, wow I whish I was like that.

As mentioned b4 is impossible to know exactly at what price right now TGA is selling coal, the most accurate option would be to go back past records and info from TGA on sales, compare them to one or possibly more indices of coal price out there, calculate a standard deviation and then apply the number for futures.
You are providing another coal price index platform with your rb coal forward m1 price, like many other out there....
I speak my mind and tell what I believe, and welcome very much those that poove me wrong because it would be an opportunity to learn something. I repeat for last time with FXPO you came out shouting Iron ore price down 7% which on that day was a total lie, when requested you didn't provide links or else....what kind of reaction you expect people to have?
If I am wrong I too would lose money and I don't pretend that people believe blindly what I post, like you do.
Regarding your comment "You cost a lot of a lot of money there. And then what did you do disappear! You will do the same here." very low life comment, trying hard to become a cheerleader? By the way FXPO is merely 10% since your sudden appearance on the board with price 7% down.

BCrader or should I call you RealValueOnly
you game is over. Even in the FXPO board many poster knew you, for the one that came out with lies about prices without evidence, to manipulate sentiments of unexperienced or naïve investors...apparently according to some there you did it before. Someone over there even suggested that you are a payed boy working for some edge fund in the city. Whatever is your agenda is clear that your intention is to patronise investor boards to create a crowd of followers, for then play the market your way. We are all here to make money but some do it with knowledge and honesty, other have in their DNA deceive and dishonesty, possibly coming from a very low self-esteem.
My friend, you are welcome to save the links I provided on API4 Coal price (investing.com) for the one from Barchert.com you'll find that subscription is free as well.
The other 2 links I provided (if I have to explain it to you..) are not specific to the coal TGA is selling but is still coal and to your disappointment yesterday price in those market has gone up again and a lot.

Now for a piece of advise. Take down names of those liar out there (mind you they keep changing accounts and user names)
These are people that are here for the short term gain, and are prepare to go to any extent for a quid profit.
In reality these people have little knowledge of fundamentals and the market mid long terms, adrenaline junkies that are here today gone tomorrow.
In my experience to buy and hold is the max return one can get from a good investment, now...if you thing TGA is a bad investment, then it is completely another matter. But by comparison with other pure coal miners and a bit of research is possible to understand what is the true value of this company. Some people here came out with share price exit strategies without and based facts and comparisons, this is amator investing and unprofessional if not dangerous. I'd like to follow up the post from Tedmak on other coal miners valuation, so we can start to put down reasonable arguments to understand what opportunity this company can be, without been taken by fool from bunch of patronising liars.

https://www.investing.com/commodities/coal-(api4)-fob-richards-bay-futures
https://www.barchart.com/futures/quotes/IFFF22/futures-prices?viewName=main
The second link previously provided by someone from this board .......
Also China thermal coal today up 4%
https://www.investing.com/commodities/zce-thermal-coal-futures
...and cooking coal up 7%
https://www.investing.com/commodities/coking-coal-futures

Not versed at posting link with mobile phone....

Will do Dayt as soon as I am back at the hotel. Right now sipping a pint at a nice bar in Tenerife...

... Not that I worry about Tga fundamentals, other coal miners 5 time more expensive and no profit to show, meaning £15 share price for Tga with coal price at this levels. Is just that I don't like dishonest people, I made my money with knowledge and research not deceiving and lie, and I expect anyone to do the same. If you sold your shares and now taking negative to buy back cheaper you should be punished. I wonder how many time you have to watch your back. Awaiting proper ufficiale links on today coal price drop please. And for you BCrader still awaiting link on 7% iron ore price, if you still care to have some credibility here...