Member Info for LuckyLuciano

I tried to trade Fxpo on catalysts event, it has been very disappointing for me. Financials are not going to be such a surprise, possibly dividend will be. Thing is to get them one has to remain invested post results.

Sure iron ore recent correction has to be acknowledged, but I too believe is not going to be sustained and at any correction will follow an uppuard movement. Iron ore and steel are in huge demand, as I mentioned before for a government having to resource to cut production to controll prices is a bullish sign imo. Only yesterday i think the US Approved $1 bill infrastructure spending.....for Fxpo considering that first half average price was likely to be 260 premium included, even if for secon half will be less than current price at 180 premium included, the average for full year would make 220 or $ 2.6 bill revenue at a conservative 40%net profit is £800 millions or PE 3.5 circa. With these conservative considerations for 2021 results, Fxpo is still very much undervalued, in my analyses the average PE of 4.5 for 2017, 18, and 2020 is taken from PE Ranges from 3 to 7 during these years. We could say that Fxpo price is currently at lower range and as the potential to double this year in other to confirm a PE of 4.5 average, even with iron ore price lower in secon half. Therefore and assuming that iron ore price doesn't go below 150 65%fe, for any cinsiderable time, recently fxpo sp is just pausing, the uptrend is still intact, and is likely that after H1 announcements tomorrow and dividend declaration we will move higher. What for special dividend announcement maybe shortly after tomorrow H1, like last year, thought I would expect a substancial divi straight at H1 tomorrow.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/593876/sponsors/new?token=ipFIPkF3s_eiKov1ofra

A paradox of carbon offset on how some people are slowly introducing environmental catastrophise, in our seas.
https://www.mining.com/sediment-plumes-from-deep-sea-mining-become-turbulent-cloud/

Lets make a petition for the ban of carbon offset.

13thmonkey another way to create carbon value is to offset it against the costs of land erosion, flooding, pollution etc, but I suppose it would be too simplistic. The issue to understand is that there shouldn't be the need to make anything tradeable. For the same principle that authorities can impose fine, why can't they make some industries pay directly those costs?
Same principle for tax on cigarettes. Problem with this system is that even if governments fine polluters, the cash they receive goes wasted or used for issues that may pollute even more. Moreover the valuation of carbon offset can be distorted easily in so many ways.
Moreover what about is carbon offsetting price became more expensive that

I have done a quick valuation comparison for the last 4 years.
From 2017 financial Fxpo had Earning Per Share of 50p and average PE of 5 (average PE is taken considering the effect financial results had on share price)
From 2018 financial Fxpo had Earning Per Share of 42p and average PE of 5.5
From 2019 financial Fxpo had Earning Per Share of 90p and PE of 2 (results came out in full pandemic )
From 2020 financial Fxpo had Earning Per Share of 80p and PE of 4.5.
Considerations:
2019 and 2020 PE valuation was not an average because share price after results did not changed in a meaningful way.
Exchange rate $/£ is at constant 1.35 for comparison purposes.
Conclusion :
We can assume that given normal circumstances Fxpo PE valuation is in the range of 4 to 5.
We should be take in consideration that also for the last 4 years Fxpo has reduced debit from $400 millions to Zero, equivalent to 50p per share, meaning that current Fxpo share price should be considered at 430p.
At current 480p and profit at £1billion the eps is 170p and PE is at 2.8 much lower that (4.5 PE average for 2017-2019-2020)
2019 valuation is excluded as results came out in unprecedent circumstances...
A reasonable assumption is that right now Fxpo is very much undervalued, been little more that half the value it should be.

lol

One last word for the day on Iron Ore, actually a question...
Which other commodity is out there, that in other to keep its price down, consumer are forced to use less?

Yes Hintza I do, I was just getting at the fact that they are two different markets.

Please I want to make a small but important point.
I genuinely believe that some invested in BMN have some green and environmentally ethical principles.
Hence you must be aware that the concept of Carbon Offset been tradeable on any financial market, is the very essence of making sure there will be no way we can tackle climate change, not even try.....
How can be possible to put a price of a OZ of CO2? Never mind been able to trade it!
And what a bout price manipulation, maybe shorting it? It is almost ridiculous...but is real!
Meanwhile some folks risk their money in trying to invest in green companies, for the benefit of the whole.
I don't know maybe a law change in the UK parliament making illegal the concept of carbon offset, could help.
Wouldn't be better to label goods produced with a carbon foot print, and apply taxes accordingly to finance green projects ?

ukmoe my apologies I will reply only to your first question as for the second I wouldn't like to have misunderstood the meaning.
Tesla sells cars not battery and in its space is still seen as the market leader, more over this fire issue has more to do with storage battery than cars, which is a small part of its market.
Also considering the size of Tesla market cap, the should be a disaster of proportionate magnitude happening to Tesla, to see a meaningful hit at its share price.
Surely it is a high profile new that its battery catch fire, but it still has to be seen how much this info/news are going round the globe.
In my opinion they should have focus on car battery and possibly focusing more on safety, and rechargeable speed solutions.
But hey the guy is already thinking to go to space, like Bezos and Richard, I am wondering why go to space, when I can see all that on youtube.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/tesla-megapack-catches-fire-at-australian-battery-project-11627635528?mod=pls_whats_news_us_business_f

Ben no offence taken, if I can say something that most here surely already know, never believe in luck and I am sure you don't need it.

Ben Alder to suggest that
I was bringing bad luck to your investment is not fair.
I did say I was selling to a small loss because saw better opportunity out there. Next I suppose you are going to ask me where did I invest and how much money I made.....I was puzzled to see last few days sp spike, hence came to this board to read what my old friend are up to.

I have done a little fundamentals on both, going back 2/3 years, and compared graphs.
Have not compared FXPO graph because although are similar operation , these two US companies are more integrated operations and different geopolitical, hence different valuation.
The interesting graph comparison indeed is between RS and X, been very similar.....
I like more X than RS because can see more upside potential, when looking at the post covid graph, and also in mid terms.
X seems to be undervalued from a graph comparison but also have a lower valuation, lower prospective PE compared to RS.
Both companies have come out with brilliant quarters result recently....
I al looking at a mid /long term investment ofcours not trading.

Sorry if noting to do with FXPO.
I am looking at two other shares on the US market in similar sector, Reliance Steel and Aluminium and United State Steel.
Any views?

Forgot to add the link

https://www.investing.com/commodities/iron-ore-62-cfr-futures-streaming-chart?cid=992748

I was just checking this Hunter111000
If anything the buls@it recently posted on Iron Ore price, help to revise at what stage we are on the macros.
Below is my simplistic take on Iron ore price which is in line with what you are saying.
Price is currently undergoing a consolidation, but considering all the market forces in play IMO is impossible that there will be a correction downwards. Note from the graph how the green and the red up trend lines are intact.....
Major producers are almost all revising down production and the West is just starting infrastructures spending.

Is just that sometime I can bring my self to believe that there can be some people, having to resort to such a deceiving expedients top make a living.
Its true that any share price depend on the commodity price its selling, but to come here when the US market futures is down in red and falsely claim that iron ore is down 7%, is a bit naïve.
If I was employing this deramper boy I would cut his wage.