The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Additional listing means more costs for the Co; either the Co loves its SAfr investors, or it's confident enough for its future, to be spending previous cash to increase its Market footprint; I think it's positive as it signals to the Market optimism for the future; and it might actually increase liquidity too!
Https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/MSYS/director-dealing-issue-of-equity-and-tvr-x76uy2r40dh5bwx.html
Yes, he exercised (foolishly IMO) his Warrants 2 years ago, when he didn't need to; hopefully, this time around he will have learned his lesson and will exercise his Director duties more diligently, for all our benefit !
And one last point on Turner Pope; they are joint brokers and their Investor Notes make clear that they are NOT independent; so, yes, they have inside knowledge but they will use for their OWN benefit, not for ours; however, if you had read their January note, they mention a "potential CTM business of £350k in Qatar", whereas their February one (just 3 weeks later) mentions £500k on same matter; to me, this means they were briefed/updated by MGT about an imminent sale (with more accurate figures). See my initial post on this thread (25 April).
In conclusion, as shareholders we can discuss the potential of the business OR (as some -probably NOT holders) talk about the past non-stop.
In my defence, my comments relate to RNS releases, outlook, cash flows etc; giving a "positive spin" to these should not be a crime IMO as, being a shareholder, one is expected to be positively biased (and dare I say, optimistic);
I understand the guys slugging off GJB, NB etc but it's caveat emptor; you buy a high risk AIM stock, you know the risks to your capital, IMO.
NB relied on his mate GJB and got wiped out (previous stake in MSYS), so maybe this time he'll be more diligent?
Bob Moore now owns 5%, Nick Slater another 5% and 2 funds another 15%; so, 25% of MSYS is owned by professional investors, 2 of which being insiders (skin in the game?).
Co has a captive market for reagents, from previously installed CTM units of MWater; US and EU law make PFAs testing compuslory etc; all these are positives for the business (not a "spin"); the past should guide us to be careful BUT NOT blind, IMO.
In summary, MSYS has a great future IF Management is genuinely interested in building the business and NOT being crooks; time will tell.
Good luck to long term, genuine, holders.
At least someone reads my posts :))
I don't think there are "new" investors, just the underwater ones trying to get some oxygen.
Whether all the RNSs will be BS or not, IMO time will show and soon too - by Y/E all will be revealed.
So, we are looking at Revenues of 571k (most to be received in 2024), plus the 262k invoiced last December (so, received by now) plus ongoing sales of reagents and the 19 units' pipeline, pending from last December; this means a min (IMO) Rev of 1mln for 2024, for a Co that is almost outsourcing everything (just a handful of staff) from cheaper/smaller premises in York; it looks like the Co will be Cash positive before the end of 2024, and this ignores any licensing of its PFAs detectors by the US OEM, or the European OEM (for the bioprocessing unit).
GLA
Definitely undervalued, they bought MW business (big chunk of it) for 100k; DVRG had paid 16mln for it (whole business) back in 2020, with a lot more money spent on building its products.
GJB is OUT, and Bob Moore has 5% in the Co.
"Company has now received a new purchase order to the value of €571k from this local distributor to supply associated equipment and consumable items for the existing CTM instruments"... "ongoing operation of the CTMs requires continual supply of these essential consumable items."
"Supply downtime due to water contamination is a serious risk for all water-stressed countries and the Company is well positioned to provide a 'total' testing solution for this issue." big market in the Gulf.
"Mass spectrometry is the only technology that can monitor PFAS to the extremely low concentration levels announced by the US Environmental Protection Agency on 10 April 2024, which varies from 10 parts down to 4 parts per trillion depending on the PFAS chemical targeted. Microsaic considers that its PFAS detector, built around the 4500MiD®, is an ideally positioned detection solution...Microsaic continues to pursue its PFAS detector testing programme aimed at equipment manufacturers and distributors, with the objective of positioning the Company to take a leading position in the US market for PFAS detection and monitoring together with dedicated partners." huge market in the USA, legally obliged to comply.
I'm saying, read between the lines. Why mention "material", or even the trip to China, unless signing is definite and probably before end of May? They could have just sat on the fence, merely repeating "signing expected in Q2". IMO
"to materially progress" is the juice, IMO; why mention about the trip at all, or this word, "material", if they did not expect a conclusion soon, or even a failure to conclude?
Just guessing that they will NOT sign in China, but maybe they will organise - in China - when/how/who will sign in Congo, with the Minister of Mines present; so possible signing by May end? IMO
"The Company is meeting PowerChina senior officials in Beijing in early May 2024 to materially progress the finalisation of the EPC contract."
Nice one XTrader, if miracles happen then next week we may get an RNS about the EPC signing, in the presence of the Minister and the Chinese :)
Thanks 99, that's why I said "fertiliser", and not Potash; but it might be connected indirectly if the project is shelved (less competition for potash) or if BHP succeeds in buying Anglo and over pays (so maybe less money for Jansen), or loses focus, affecting the completion of Jansen (6 times bigger than Kola's final output);
Either way, whatever might reduce competition for Kola's output would be a plus for KP2, that was my point (in 3-4 years, if things go well!).
Https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/bhp-anglo-american-merge-mining-sector-9hffwkwbf
Although this has no effect in the short run, and KP2 has nothing to do with copper, Anglo is adding to fertiliser supply in 2027 with its Woodside mine in Yorkshire; BHP has its own potash project in Canada (Jansen - spending 6x more than KP2, for 4x the production) so scrapping Woodside or delaying it, is quite possible.
https://www.bhp.com/what-we-do/global-locations/canada/jansen
The 2nd positive is the realisation in the Market that a ready (or near-ready) mine project is worth a lot more to big MIning companies, as it can come to production quickly, than greenfield projects; Kola and DX are such kind of projects, not far production IMO.
Anyway, we'd get some news next week - if we don't, then the Co is probably delaying the Q1 24 update because it wants to combine it with a material RNS? Q2 has 9 weeks left so they have to be more specific with the EPC's signing, it's been 1 month since last update (when they pushed signing to Q2, from end of April).
GLA
We'd be getting the Q1 24 Operating update next week; hopefully, with news on the EPC signing too!
Some important news from the USA too, re PFAs regulations and USD 1 bln in funding for PFAs clean-up:
https://www.epa.gov/sdwa/and-polyfluoroalkyl-substances-pfas
"On April 10, 2024, EPA announced the final National Primary Drinking Water Regulation (NPDWR) for six PFAS. ...EPA expects that over many years the final rule will prevent PFAS exposure in drinking water for approximately 100 million people, prevent thousands of deaths, and reduce tens of thousands of serious PFAS-attributable illnesses. EPA is also making unprecedented funding available to help ensure that all people have clean and safe water. In addition to today’s final rule, $1 billion in newly available through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law to help states and territories implement PFAS testing and treatment at public water systems..." The final rule requires:
Public water systems must monitor for these PFAS and have three years to complete initial monitoring (by 2027), followed by ongoing compliance monitoring. Water systems must also provide the public with information on the levels of these PFAS in their drinking water beginning in 2027. Public water systems have five years (by 2029) to implement solutions that reduce these PFAS if monitoring shows that drinking water levels exceed these MCLs. Beginning in five years (2029), public water systems that have PFAS in drinking water which violates one or more of these MCLs must take action to reduce levels of these PFAS in their drinking water and must provide notification to the public of the violation.
We'd be getting some updates soon on CTM reagents production, unit sales etc? According to this TP Note (FWIW, a bit dated from mid-Feb), things should start improving from H2 onwards:
https://www.turnerpope.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/1.-MicrosaicSystemsplc_19-2-2024_FINAL_BG.pdf
Some potential sources of cash/revenue:
1. Tax credit refund - 250k (but potentially eaten up by an LSE fine of up to £300k? see link to a similar case:
https://www.bclplaw.com/en-US/events-insights-news/london-stock-exchange-aim-company-public-censure-and-fine.html
2. 5 units shipped/invoiced b4 Y/E 2023, so maybe the £262k invoiced has been received already?
3. pipeline of 19 units at Y/E 2023, so potential sales of another 5-10 units in H1 2024???
4. £500k (see TP Note, page 2) from Qatar re installed (in 2022) CTM units' reagents?
5. other MicroTox reagent sales / consumables to existing base of MW clients?
6. Sulphate Reducing Bacteria Test kits ("SRB Kits")- "quality checking initial production of SRB Kits in the coming weeks, before making them available for purchase".
Quoting from the RNS re 2022 Results, "the Directors have included the expected cashflows arising from the acquisition of the trade and assets of Modern Water, which is expected to be cash positive within the next twelve months" i.e by Y/E 2024.
Also in H2 24, we should get the conclusion of commercial testing of ProteinID and PFAS detection technologies, with possible licensing deals.
Current Mkt Cap of 1.8mln is probably equal, or less than its Cash!
Note - my comments are for existing, well under water Holders (who already know about GJB's shenanigans etc) so please let's try to keep the BB on a positive footing.
GLA, DYOR
Spread tightening, usually a good sign.
I already have, hence my post :)