The latest Investing Matters Podcast with Jean Roche, Co-Manager of Schroder UK Mid Cap Investment Trust has just been released. Listen here.
Assuming you are not a shorter, the Co had 2.1 mln at end of January, with a monthly cash burn of 285k i.e. 7 months hence, taking us to August 2024; in addition, gross income from H124 Sales (between 1.5-2.5) gives it another 700-1.3mln, so extra 3-5 months; and this ignores any income from Jan-to-June 2024, or to Dec.2024 when the definite cash could possibly run out.
Iceman,
Can u pls enlighten the rest of us? You ask how much cash is left, whilst saying with a lot of certainty "hate to buy JUST before placing"...so, where have you based this assertion?
If no RNSs were forthcoming, you'd probably say, "no news, no activity, a placing is imminent"?
If RNSs come, you say "these companies send out news to pump the price before a big placing"
So I guess, you can't lose, can you?
This will be huge, IMO, as more Unilever-like companies will get interested (and become APTA clients hopefully).
And we still have Wednesday to look out for!
Otherwise, why specify an exact time, 2 hours after mkt open on the 13th, for a simple presentation?
"A pre-recorded webcast from Dr David Bunka, Chief Scientific Officer of Aptamer Group, reviewing the Optimer®+ platform and the technical progress to date, will be available on the Aptamer Group website from 10:00am (UCT) on 13 March, 2024, at: https://aptamergroup.com/investors/reports-and-presentations/."
Unless I am missing something?
From previous RNSs: July 2022 -- Contracts signed with a top five pharmaceutical company to develop multiple Optimer® binders as immunohistochemistry (IHC) reagents to support pipeline development and early discovery targets; March 2023-- Optimer®-Fc tools launched to enable immunohistochemistry research and diagnostic workflows; Aug. 23--Signed two deals with a top five pharma partner, valued at up to £0.2 million for the development of tools for use in immunoassays and IHC in detecting neuronal targets; "The first contract is for the development of an Optimer pair to a neurodegenerative biomarker for use in an immunoassay platform. The second contract is a follow-on contract for the final stage of Optimer development to a neuronal protein target for immunohistochemistry (IHC), following positive results in the earlier stages of Optimer development. This builds on the adoption of our Optimer-Fc platform for use in automated IHC workflows."
And the last RNS of 27 Febr 24 -- "Both the lab-based research and the initial animal experiments suggest that Optimer®+ will be well placed to deliver the next generation of binders to enable the targeted delivery of precision medicines. This is an area where we are seeing increasing interest due to the unmet needs across gene therapy and precision chemotherapy."
My theory? APTA has been working flat out on this platform, Optimer + for a full year, and with this "top5 pharma partner" (AstraZeneca??) for at least 2 years, so I dare say that something will be announced on the 13th with respect to new collaborations, or scientific breakthroughs; otherwise, why ringfence scarce R&D cash to spend on Optimer+, if this existing collaboration was not close to bearing fruit?
All in my biased opinion, as usual. Good luck to LTHolders!
@FrBoy,
If I were the Mgt, I might be saving something to announce next week, to coincide with this below eg a new contract for this service;"A pre-recorded webcast from Dr David Bunka, Chief Scientific Officer of Aptamer Group, reviewing the Optimer®+ platform and the technical progress to date, will be available on the Aptamer Group website from 10:00am (UCT) on 13 March, 2024, at: https://aptamergroup.com/investors/reports-and-presentations/."
Let's also hope that there will be more traction and +ve publicity on the 13th of March, re the below:
"A pre-recorded webcast from Dr David Bunka, Chief Scientific Officer of Aptamer Group, reviewing the Optimer®+ platform and the technical progress to date, will be available on the Aptamer Group website from 10:00am (UCT) on 13 March, 2024, at: https://aptamergroup.com/investors/reports-and-presentations/."
Let's not worry about the daily volatility, we know the future is bright (blue!), we just need the Market to see 2-3 big contracts in the next month or two. It's a matter of patience now and holding our nerve until then.
BTW, SP up by about 20-25% from the bottom is not much to write home about; some people may still take profits but they may regret it, hopefully!
GLA
But no Heavy Buying either :) -- for now!
Both my BUYS this morning, one appearing as a SELL!
Anyway, not much movement expected until April unless DX project starts moving too?
Didn't they say, originally, 3mln for FY23 (ie June 2024)? They have 1.4 mln to collect on by then (for sure), plus a % of the 1.5mln (so it can be 0.5mln, 1mln or 1.5mln); plus, up to 6mln coming "longer term"; so the Shortfall might be Half to 1 million (Gross, so the net cash would be maybe half of that); so, missing out on 300k to 700k is not the end of the world, especially given that cash will last until December 2024, the Optimer+ platform will be put to the test soon (meaning higher volumes at higher margins), so this shortfall can be easily covered in the next few months.
All IMO
Thanks ARich,
If that's the case, he could consider averaging down at these ridiculous SP level; the risk-reward potential is rather worth it.
And if he gets his wish for a 0.50 Placing, then he can average down some more.
Porky,
I see what you are saying, however it is more probable (not a guarantee) that a) the SP will be higher by Dec.24 (should a raise be needed) and b) Dec 24 cash runs out IF NO OTHER SALES OCCUR UNTIL THEN.
All IMO.
Bobber is right, FY25 starts in July 24; Co mentioned in the Nov presentation that it burns 285k pm, so the 2.1mln on Jan end would suffice for 7 months (end August 24); plus some cash (say 1mln net cash) from the appx 2mln Revenues booked in H123, this extends the runway by another 3-4 months (min); therefore, Nov-Dec 24 (worst case scenario); by then, who knows what other contracts will be signed?
@Porky
When do you expect a fund raise? You said at 0.50p? And for how much?
Cash is enough until November, assuming zero income from now until then, is this a realistic assumption in your opinion?
And if the SP is 2-3 p by then, (IMO) ie a Mkt cap of 10-15mln, a cash call of 1 million (say) will have little impact on the SP.
@SMeister, I think a takeover is unlikely as 10p would be too low a price for the current Mgt and main Shareholders;
At 10p it'd be valued at "only" 46mln; as per the below RNS, Mgt has options kicking in between 10p and 30p in just 30 months!
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/APTA/grant-of-options-and-related-party-transaction-xwwn5v0qnvkfijm.html
Plus, a buyer could have bought a lot cheaper back in the summer 2023 when cash was almost zero - IMO
We still need a couple of material RNSs to put a floor under the SP, but it's extremely likely we will get those in the next 1-2 months.
Encouraging to see a steady upwards movement; it shows long term players are building their stake, in anticipation of things ot come, and should discourage shorters. Remember that Mgt options kick in above 4p in September.
A fitting end to a great week!
Shows the potential and how quickly it can rise, once we have a couple of RNSs with good numbers.
Main thing is that optimism has returned; everyone already knew that the technology is worth a lot more and that agreements will be signed these next few months;
The only uncertainty is timing and size of cash flows but we are covered until November, in a worst - unlikely - scenario of zero deals by then.
And if the SP recovers to 2-3p by then, on the back of RNSs announced, then on a mkt cap of 10-15mill a fund raise of 1-2 million will not be an issue. IMO