Member Info for LTbeliever

let's use our logic;
April the 1st RNS saying EPC expected in 2 months i.e. by June end;
July 18th RNS i.e. 3 weeks late, announces that EPC will be out in August.
This is 5 months (April-Aug end) to get the EPC ready.
Why would they give themselves just 6 weeks, from last RNS on matter, to complete the EPC (July 19-31 Aug) IF THEY CANNOT BE CERTAIN?
Would they risk missing another deadline that themselves have set?
Hence, I expect the RNS in the next 9 trading days left in August.
GLA.

Optimism is good, FffCrayon but not enough.
The time is NOW.
Mining projects need 10-15 years to fruition and hundreds of $ mlns in exploration/preparation before taking off.
KP2 has already spent 10 years and $250 mln on this project - definitely, the mkt cap does not reflect the value of this work and the huge potential; projection numbers were based on a potash price 30-40% of current mkt price AND competition by Russia/Belarus (now reduced).
Therefore, the SP rising 3-4x by Y/E is entirely realistic; existing, long term holders (PIs) have been worn out by the long wait so they find hard to believe that we are reaching the end of the dirt road and entering the highway soon.
IMO, GLA!

Clock is ticking people...either it will halve if a dilution is coming (10% chance, if a delay occurs?), or triple (or more) by Xmas, if we get the 2 RNSs we expect based on the perfect scenario (no dilution, full project financing etc).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9fEndGSMu_c

Only that the clock is ticking...and getting nearer to the RNS :)

450k shares @ 1.14p

defensive play, in the middle of a recession and rising interest rates, with big upside.
All we need now is 2 good RNSs before Y/E.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-04/nutrien-says-potash-will-remain-tight-even-as-russia-ships-more?srnd=premium-europe
Global potash will remain tight even as more buyers shed their fear of buying from Russia and Belarus, according to a top fertilizer maker’s chief executive officer. Supplies from Russia may remain as much as 20% below 2021 levels even as access to export markets grow into the coming year, Ken Seitz, interim CEO of Nutrien Ltd. said in a Thursday interview. Shipments from Belarus may lag as the nation doesn’t have port access. Its production could fall by as much as half, he said. The two nations are among the top-three largest producers of the crop nutrient.
“We’re going to have pent-up demand,” Setiz said in an a telephone interview. “We’re going to have soils craving potash.”

Prices soared earlier this year to multiyear highs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine roiled markets. Many potash buyers avoided Russian supplies for fear of getting wrapped up in international sanctions. However, fertilizer sales have so far escaped the types of bans levied against other commodities. Wholesale prices are dipping as Russian product finds its way into global markets. Weekly wholesale US Cornbelt potash prices and Brazil potash prices both fell to the lowest since March for the week ending July 29, according to Bloomberg’s Green Markets.
Nutrien has said it will ramp up potash production capability to 18 million tons by 2025, a 40% increase compared to 2020. Farmers will buy more potash if it’s available, Seitz said.

Very good link, thanks.
I like this bit too, as it should ease some minds:
"Kore is also defensive in the face of recession since growth in potash (and fertiliser) demand – which is currently about 70 million tons annually – is linked to population growth projected to be 2% to 3% a year. "
GLA, 2-3 weeks to go!

Rock,
where is that 16.37 1m BUY displayed? and at what price?

the 2m was a sell because just before it, a 100k was bought at 1.03.
3m SELL yesterday at 0.97 and 2m today at 1p I think justifies the drop in this shallow, illiquid market.
The only question for us to worry about should be - do they know something and they sell at whatever SP they can get?
On the other hand, the MM did absorb 5mln shares so, a small positive.

As Mitch says, only a material RNS will lift the SP and this will come in August.

Last couple of RNSs were positive and optimistic.

EPC expected in August - a few days' delay will not change anything
Financing "later in the year" - sounds certain, a few weeks remaining to Y/E from September onwards;
Significant interest and discussions on offtake arrangements - sounds positive.

Fundamentals:
War going on, world will gradually move away from Rus/Belarus potash for strategic reasons
African population increasing, creating a local mkt for KP2 which will have a big advantage
Brazil continues to be the breadbasket of the world, whereas both it and Europe will be quite close to KP2's operations (compared to NAmerican suppliers)
Global warming reducing crop yields, making potash use imperative
Global population rising, despite US markets potential drop / USD rising and all the short term market headwinds
USD rising means higher income; USD dropping usually means rise in commodity prices, hence KP2 is relatively insulated

GLA, DYOR and be patient for a few more weeks!

going up and up.
Now, we just need to "hit" some gas in August/September!

GLA

"The first of these wells, Oswig (Company 20%), is expected to spud in July with Velocette (Company 20%) expected to be drilled in Q2 2023. In addition, and separate to the OMV farm-in, a further exploration well, Copernicus (Company 10%), is expected to commence drilling before the end of this quarter."

end of July means we should get RNS by Friday, if no delay.
end of quarter, means by end of September IMO.

Copernicus' spud is due in late September as per RNSs so I assume Yantai's move is related to another client's project.

everything at 36.8 and above is a BUY, btw, although listed as a SELL here!
2% bid-ask spread, not bad.

36.9 to buy, 36.2 to sell, I guess this means that the MM is out of stock?

wacker,
Inertia is no longer an option - this has to conclude, one way or another - my guess is, sooner rather than later the EPC will be issued as the timing is perfect (after so many years) with the daily reports on food insecurity, strategic need to reduce reliance on Russian and Belarusian potash, Africa rising as a food producer, energy costs rising thus distance to market becoming vital etc.
The main s/hs must be fully incentivised and pushing to get this over with.

https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/energy-super-basins-where-the-renewable-ccs-and-upstream-stars-align/
you need to accept cookies, for access to the analysis. North Sea is 15th on the list.

https://www.woodmac.com/horizons/energy-super-basins-where-the-renewable-ccs-and-upstream-stars-align/
you need to accept cookies, for access to the analysis. North Sea is 15th on the list.

For the EPC study...
Just to liven the BB up a bit :)
My gut feeling says that, after so many delays, would they again:
- delay beyond August?
- go on holidays before of after submitting the EPC?
Logic suggests that they will submit the EPC and then go on holiday, so I say that the EPC will be submitted in the next 2-3 weeks. IMO
GLA and enjoy the summer!