Member Info for LTbeliever

Just a matter of time, to negotiate the final details.

EPC locked, and financing looks like very close to being sorted out.

GLA!

In addition, our 2 biggest holders are here for the long run and have deep pockets (Oman making lots of money from high oil prices, and the Chileans from high lithium prices).
They know it's just a matter of time for the EPC (and have inside info about the timing) but they are not too fussed about us PIs, worrying about the daily ups and downs.

This is a 4-year, USD 1.5 BLN, project; banks will finance most of this amount, offtake agreements the rest.
Offtake should not be an issue given the high prices and reduced supply.
HoA signed, so the Consortium building the mine is committed to obtaining the finance; given the global slowdown, they have an added incentive to get this project going; therefore, IMO, the delay is probably due to the global volatility and USD long interest rates going up and down (mostly up), as it should make banks more wary to finance this, given the many variables of the project.
I suspect that the EPC will not be submitted until the finance is also wrapped up (but not announced until later), because by submitting the EPC the Consortium is by definition obliged to provide the finance too.
The above are just my assumptions (logical, I hope); this means some more delay for the EPC RNS, but the good thing would then be that the finance package is also wrapped up. Every 1% reduction in USD interest rates means a big increase to the project's NPV so if the delay means a higher NPV, so much the better.
We will know from the market reaction (and potential SP rise) when the EPC is announced; we have about 50 trading days left before the Y/E, so GLA and DYOR.
Patience will be rewarded IMO.

Nobody can predict how low (or not) it may go so we can look at the facts/numbers:

Mkt cap 35 mln, 7 mln of which is cash.
Book Value over 160mln, for expenses spent on exploration/licenses etc.
So, trading at about 20% of Book Value. Cheap, but could get cheaper? Depends on market turmoil etc.
SP below the SMA200 and SMA50, suggesting undervaluation.

Fertiliser prices still up, supply reduced, war still ongoing.
Population rising, climate change affecting yields and arable land.

Once interest rates peak next year, the NPV value of the project will start going up as the USD rates start coming down (project will not start before H2 2023 anyway).

DYOR
Very low volume of shares traded, seems everyone is waiting for the EPC.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/09/30/clean-rivers-face-250m-fine-new-environment-secretary-tells/

Fines for water companies who seriously breach rules by dumping sewage in rivers and seas will be increased 1,000 fold, the new Environment Secretary has revealed. Speaking to The Telegraph, Ranil Jayawardena said that the current upper limit of £250,000 per incident would be raised to £250 million.

Interims soon too (just waiting for the notice).
Some sells going on but the MM is absorbing them easily.

"We are currently drilling the Oswig well and both the Velocette and Oswig prospects have significant follow-on potential that will be derisked by the exploration wells in a success case."
Is this a hint that Oswig is a success???
If it wasn't (say, an RNS follows in 1-2 weeks about failure), why mention Oswig here?

Good points.
Anyone knows when the Broker Note will be available on LBE's site?

I meant someone with inside info :)

but that delayed 100k BUY yesterday afternoon would seem to be an insider's trade?

The logical thing to do, if you expect good news from Oswig in a few days, would be to kitchen sink first the bad news so that the SP will rise to fully reflect the good news. IMO
Of course, I'm just guessing!
GLA

security of supply..that's the name of the game. Rail strikes in USA affecting ammonia deliveries to fertiliser plants.
Clients will be flocking for offtake agreements with KP2.
DYOR!

I reckon by EOY we should have both the EPC and its financing.
Summit is working on both the EPC and the debt portion of the financing whereas there is a royalties' element too.
IMO, if the EPC was gonna be delayed much further (say, 1 month or more) the RNS should have made reference to such delay.
So I think the EPC should be out in the next 2-4 weeks? With the financing up to 2 months later, as indicated.

Still waiting to hear about the EPC's release date (already 2 weeks late!).
Some positives though:
1. "The progress towards financing our Kola Project is exciting and we look forward to receiving the financing proposal."
this sounds like financing is definite IMO;
2. Still over USD 7 mln cash available, should see us through to 2023 when the SP (hopefully) will be a lot higher before any funds may be needed.
3. at potash pricing averaging US$360/tonne (unchanged from the DFS), Kola net present value ("NPV") US$1.623 billion, VS a potash price of US$1000/t Muriate of Potash ("MoP") (CFR Brazil current potash price US$1100/t M)NPV US$9.354 billion, i.e. 6x higher, showing the potential undervaluation once the project kicks off!
GLA!!

Few trades and volume, but the Buys are done at 1.15.
Is this just the MM ripping off PIs, or there is a big order pending execution?

The promised RNS missed its own deadline, not positive; however, there is mayhem in the markets, quite possibly affecting all financial parameters including the final number crunching. Better to be late by a few days and get our numbers right.
I reckon the majority shareholders already know what's going on, through their BoD participation hence their lack of urgency to bother with us PIs.
On the other hand, they want to make money just like us, they have deep pockets and know what they are doing. IMO
At the end of the day, other than the cost of capital (USD rates) all the other fundamentals remain strong and with a global recession coming, fertiliser remains one of the few defensive sectors.
SP has not moved despite the delay, probably indicating that the delay is not a reason to worry.
GLA!

So, after Powell has spoken, it's official; high interest rates to stay for some time; inflation to stay high, energy shortages affecting fertiliser production in Europe; fertiliser prices to remain high and global warming will force governments to stock up on potash; the scramble for energy will be followed by a rush for strategic stocks of fertilisers.
Anyone thinks that people will really want to buy fertiliser from Russia in future, once potash starts to flow from Congo, given the pain Putin will inflict this winter?
For stock investors, not many sectors remaining to invest in; food top of the list IMO.
GLA, DYOR

Kore Potash* (KP2 LN) 1.2p, Mkt Cap £39m – Initiation Note – Developing next potash province BUY – 5.0p

There is a 60page Research Note, dated 19 July 2022 but you need to register with SP Angel to access it.

Just 7 days left, GLA!!

ALB1, I guess you are not the gambling type then.
I mean, you said before that you expect the SP to go to high teens (before resetting your buy target to 0.5) so it seems that you have a binary choice in your mind:
a) Buy at 0.5 and sell, say at 10p so make a 2000% return, or
b) Make a zero return if SP doesn't hit 0.5 because 1000% return is not good enough (if you buy at 1p).
I assume you are very certain that it's going to 0.5p.

Good for you then, right?
You were looking to buy around 1p if not mistaken.