Member Info for LTbeliever

Well, thanks to Kamikwase, even IIs are very uncertain about their own liquidity...plenty of fish (big ones too) to fry!

The crash probably reflects the uncertainty about both the risk of bankruptcy and the coming dilution.
Once things are clearer, the Market will look at the fundamentals (and details of any Placing), so it is quite likely that the SP will jump in relief. If from 3p to 6p or higher, it depends on various factors.

Crookonary?

Previous fundraise was at 30p, giving the Co a mkt cap pf 60mln.
Now, after a 90% drop, and with sales increasing, more revenue generators than at the time, wider market exposure, expanded facilities, inhouse supply etc, how much is the Co worth to the IIs?
If you deduct 50% to account for Stock Market drop, 15p...deduct another 50% of that for the dire situation and the risk of bankruptcy, 7.5p.
Do the IIs really want to lose all their money when they clearly know of the success just around the corner?
I am biased but i reckon
a) the Placing will happen and
b) Not below 3p.

Any RNS about the Placing can only be released when any deal is concluded; if the Co rushes to conclude because of panic etc, then it will get a worse deal than it already has been negotiating; the sooner, the better of course for us but the MM knows what is going on and will be adjusting the SP accordingly (up or down).

Joe-B,
Nobody here knows the potential placing SP; the MM probably knows, and this is why they reduced the SP very quickly from 9p to 5p. The drop to 3p was a reaction of the MM to the RNS - why 3p? I can think of 2 possible explanations:
1. MM knows that the Placing SP will be 3p - why 3p? no idea, we will have to wait to find out;
2. Placing Price can be something above 3p but the MM dropped the SP, upon the RNS issue, by a "margin of safety" to cover themselves in the event of massive sales; if you will see, 3p has held firm despite all the sells, so this might imply something.

It's not farfetched to say that the negotiations have been ongoing for a week or 2; this is proven by the SP slide in a matter of days, from 9p to 5p, forcing the Co to issue the RNS about it because they realised there was a leak and inside selling.
During these discussions, for any II to put money into a risky tech stock they would need to see numbers, projections, potential for contracts etc. Othewrwise, why bother?
Therefore, the Co has revenue coming in but it needs CASH now, hence its predicament (caused by Mgt's stupidity).
My point - funds will be raised - maybe soon - but the Mln Dollar questions is at what dilution % for us?

Better still, he'd buy some shares! Probably waiting to buy at 3p at the placing.

3.75 to buy now.
I reckon that - IF (big one) - a new investor puts the funds @3p, a good CEO & CFO, kicks GJB out and devises a proper strategy going forward, the SP can easily double. IMO

Nothing official on 3p, just rumours, but it's where the MM drew the red line.

it'd appear that 3p is the placing price.
So, any buying henceforth is PIs averaging down and hoping that this is indeed the bottom.
At 3p and 10 million new funds, the new shareholders will own about 67% of the Co, and us diluted by 2/3.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11306825/Life-sciences-firm-DeepVerge-sees-shares-dive-40.html

the reference to Board changes ("strengthening") might - IMO - imply that funding discussions are near to fruition and the new holders will have their own people on the Board; probably they realised what a mess the current BoD has made of Cash management.
With a monthly cash burn of close to 1mln, some stuff might have to go too.

despite the heavy and panicky selling, the SP closed near where it opened. It opened where the rumours have the placing SP to be, i.e. 3p.
The MM has slowly dropped the SP to this level as obviously they are privy to the ongoing discussions.
My point - placing is near to conclusion and will be at 3p.
If i am right, it is quite possible that the SP could potentially rise to 5-6p as soon as the placing is concluded.

Mkt cap 7mln
Loan+Int to be paid off by 14 Nov = 4.5 mln
Amount to be raised? 7-10 mln?
I think the 3p today reflects already both the expected dilution AND the risk of bankruptcy, don't forget that the SP crashed in just the past few days, from 9p to 3p.
If 10mln, say, are raised at 3p then (dilution 2:1)
Mkt cap 17 mln, cash (after loan paid off) of around 6.5 mln (incl. the 1mln available now).

Of course, time is running out so anything can happen!

The Co has great products, but horrible cash management.
The new shareholders will make a killing at 3p since the Co sells mostly in USD, costs in GBP in regions with plenty of cash (Mid East, India, USA etc).
As soon as the dust settles at or around 3p, and the placing is complete, the SP will probably climb upwards just by virtue of the cash being in place. IMO

there are 2 full months to Y/E 2022, I think they will not go into 2023 to finalise this; time is money, the EPC is all but final so any delays will cause more problems.
All parties will want to hit the ground running in 2023, given the long delay in 2022.
Mkt turmoil is a factor of course but by Y/E, whatever mkt crash should happen, it will happen.
Some comfort from the fact that most shares are held by long term IIs.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-10-10/uk-gilt-turmoil-after-mini-budget-pushes-pensions-out-of-multi-asset-funds?srnd=premium-europe#xj4y7vzkg

Cash-Hungry British Pensions Pull Money From Multi-Asset Funds
Pensions are searching for liquidity after bond prices tumbled

Given the mayhem in the gilts' market, it is quite probable that the sellers are Inst. Investors, desperately trying to raise liquidity any way they can; therefore, the Co is not really obliged to issue an RNS about market movements.
This means that a) SP could fall further b) if so, it could be a great buying opportunity.
Of course, I could be 100% wrong and the sellers are getting out because they know something about DVRG that we don't know!

"The Consortium ....remains committed to the financing of Kola... prior to presenting its royalty and debt financing proposal..."
I read the above as meaning:
1. clauses and terms will eventually be resolved
2. proposal is ready (i.e. banks are standing by to lend) to be presented once 1. is done