Member Info for LTbeliever

ALB1,
As per all the RNSs of at least the last year, the consortium is only obliged to provide the details of financing AFTER the EPC is agreed and final; there is no fixed timeframe eg within x weeks of EPC agreement; however, all the RNSs are saying that financing discussions have been progressing along with the EPC's preparation, which is only logical given the project's size and complexity; so, I assume there are already banks standing by for a few months now, running through their spreadsheets every so often to update the rates etc.
What we don't know is if the delay is a ploy by the consortium to amend key terms to increase their projected profit; but it seems that this brinkmanship has infuriated the Minister, hence the arrests and the letter.
As I said, too much to lose for all parties here, so the 3 week deadline will knock heads together in Oman, Chile, China, South Africa and roC.

ALB1,
IMO, the consortium is not interested in being the mine owner; if they do that, and kick KP2 out, which firm in future would ever decide to use their services?
Also, the consortium is arranging the finance (mix of debt and offtake finance), not providing it themselves.
So, the banks will take the risk on and therein lies the question - do they want the RoC risk, for a 4 year project? We don't know the % split between offtake and debt but it would not be less than USD 1 bln, I assume - how many banks are involved? if it's a syndicated loan, the risk is lower per bank.
As i said, we need to wait for 3 more weeks - the response to the RoC will have to reveal more sensitive info. Even if we don't see the content, we will know from the market's reaction.

If so, imagine how much money an insider who buys at 0.70, if my conspiracy theory is accurate!
Or it could be just wishful thinking.

Conspiratory minds might even say that maybe Brad pushed the RoC to send the letter to KP2 as a way to exert pressure on the consortium - far fetched?
Nothing surprises me in this world of fake news, power grubs, imperial competition between the US and China etc.

No point in arguing between ourselves now, we are mere pawns in this game.

10 October - EPC RNS
"There are a number of proposed contractual terms that the Company believes now require further discussion before acceptance. These discussions have already commenced and Kore and SEPCO are making every effort to expedite this process."
12 October - RoC letter received AFTER employees arrested and released without charge. So, arrests might have taken place a day or 2 earlier.
Is it a coincidence? it is quite obvious that the Minister got ****ed off on the 10th, sent in the Police and then cooler heads prevailed and the letter was sent to KP2.
Conclusion - SP dropped 30% because of the letter, sent in response to the EPC RNS (which had not affected the SP much) - KP2 has 3 weeks to respond, so this could be a blessing in disguise because if the EPC is finalised by the deadline of the letter, we kill 3 birds with a stone!! The letter, the EPC and the financing IMO
So, either you sell up OR wait for 3 weeks and see what happens.
GLA!

It's obvious that GJB is to DVRG what Liz is to the Tories; he had a useless CFO and Legal team who didn't know anything about both cashflow mgt and the legal terms of the Loan agrmnt;
Should we do our own lettuce live stream???
Let's hope that if a Placing occurs, the new shareholders will have proper Directors and Mgt in place for the stock to recover.

Maybe I'm clutching at straws here but...the MM has been absorbing all the SELLS (reducing the SP of course) but still, liquidity is available.
To me, this indicates that the MM is not so worried and this is an overreaction, probably because some people prefer to sell first, and ask questions later. IMO

All I am saying is that, hopefully, this is related to a final bargaining so that the consortium can increase its margins a bit more, rather something more sinister.
US inflation is about 7% so even though the Financing is in USD (if we get it), the payments to the consortium are in USD, there will still be costs in USD, not just Renmynbi.

My (very) wild guess is that the Consortium is worried about inflation etc, which will reduce their margins so they are probably trying to extract more money sideways (with the EPC contract terms that need clarifications).
But, eventually a compromise will be reached because they can't sit idle or appear to have scuppered the deal after having spent time and money on this project's EPC etc.

ALB1,

Yes, bust is a likely outcome; however, there are many insiders sitting on a lot of shares - current volume of share sales do not indicate that the insiders are jumping ship.
That could happen in 3 weeks of course, the deadline for the Co to respond to RoC.
As for employees being arrested, my biased mind considers it an attempt to make the message appear serious. At the end of the day, this is Africa and if the RoC Gov wants the license back it will just take it and worry about the consequences later.
I think it's just the Minister getting impatient about his kickbacks.

An optimistic (and my biased) view; I think this is just sabre rattling on the RoC's Gov part, as - like us - they are tired of waiting - and the EPC with caveats was the last straw for them.
Let's see all the arguments against my view:
1. The 2 big holders buying all the Co on the cheap; if the Co loses the license, why bother? It will be worthless! If the project goes ahead in a few weeks, why rock the boat now and jeopardise the project? they could have bought PIs out at any time over the past few months, they don't need to make a paper profit of a couple of million, they need the project to go ahead;
2. RoC gov giving license to the Chinese? SEPCO is not a mining co, it's an engineering firm; with China's and global slowdown they need this huge project to start; delays do not mean that they prefer the project to crash;
3. The project is too close to the brink, it's in everyone's interest to get it off the ground, the RoC Gov just wants to knock a few heads together and speed things up IMO
4. All RNSs mention that the financing is proceeding along with the EPC, no indication that there are issues; yes, global rates have gone up but so has the potash price (more than compensates) and dearth of viable projects could mean that banks (the Debt part of the financing) are still willing and able to lend.
5. Given the war in Ukraine, I am sure RoC Gov will not want to infuriate the West by giving the license to the Chinese.
6. Plenty of money to be made, to keep everyone happy.

Yes, on the one hand the RoC Gov wants results, money, jobs etc - so it could kick KP2 out of the project in theory.

On the other hand, KP2 has spent over $300 mln and over 10 years on this project; being kicked out would
1) get RoC the immediate hostility of Chile and Oman
2) many years in int. courts
3) its reputation as a safe investment destination ruined

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corruption_Perceptions_Index

Just go to no 162!!!

3 weeks left to reply to the Govrnmt about the progress...might be the push needed to get the EPC finalised.

Lutra,
Last year, MSYS did a fund raising via TP (and DVRG and GJB got closer to MSYS).
The Placing was at 0.10 (the SP had already crashed by 70-80%) - post Placing, the SP jumped to 0.25; it stayed there for a few months but then it slowly started dropping - now it's at 0.05.
My point? SP now reflects the risk of bankruptcy plus dilution; if a Placing takes place, these 2 unknowns disappear and the SP should jump - by how much, depends on magnitude of dilution, how much cash is now available etc.
So, your 9p should be easily reached, and quickly, if bankruptcy, fire sale or huge dilution is averted - IF !!

Not unlikely!
The irony is, DVRG's problems stem from its overtrading and overextending its reach BUT, on the other hand, it's got its fingers in many pots, we just need one of these to have some jam today.
The problem would be though, if the Mgt continue to keep their fingers up their own .......xxx

I reckon a lot of PIs want to average down but are holding fire until there is a bit more clarity; so, the SP could easily jump by 2x-3x IF the news are good - IF !!

The Co has 4 weeks to find a solution; a lot can happen during this period;
Although uncertainty is very bad for the SP, on the other hand better to delay a bit and get the right kind of deal;
With no news, rumours can quickly spread about anything and shorters can have a field day.
Until a solution is RNS'd, everything is on the table including bakruptcy and big dilution.
On the other, the lack of an RNS (and further leaks) might mean that Mgt is getting its act together and some serious discussions are taking place somewhere.
It seems that the CFO messed up in exactly the same way as Kamikwaze i.e. important information was miscommunicated and mishandled.
We have to wait and see and try to decipher the various rumours that will be undoubtedly circulating.
GLA

Happy Days,
I think this is what shorters are scared of, a big short-squeeze caused by a positive RNS.
We can see that they are trying to disseminate fake info eg placing at 2p, when no such news exists. Obviously, the MM is keeping the SP around 3p (despite the sells) for a reason, which eventually will be made clear to all.
The IP is worth a lot of money, let's wait and see what happens.

Ironically, he is negotiating on behalf of all of us; and trying to save his position, which may be hard.
Whoever (hopefully) puts money in, they want to be sure that their money/stake is not diluted in 6 months.