Member Info for LTbeliever

it seems RoC Govt is fuming.
Time is running out and the next definite RNS, if no developments, would be in about a month with Review of Operations for Q4 (when KP2 would have to say something).

pls be a bit more respectful to Alb1, after all he's buying a couple of million shares (maybe more) as soon as the RNS is released and the SP jumps to 2-3p (or 1.3p as per his estimate).

Some more facts:
Institutional investors are holding, not selling; they are making loads of money from high oil and lithium prices;
No insider selling or buying, or abnormal trading to indicate people jumping ship;
Huge structural demand for potash, and fundamentals for the project are getting stronger, not weaker (pop. growth, war in Ukraine, security of supply etc); potential NPV getting higher, not lower;
No RNS issued to indicate problems with financing, instead they reiterate that financing details will follow the EPC's conclusion;
Possible issues likely with the RoC Minister, and EPC's completion but these are not facts as yet, instead they add to the uncertainty and riskiness of the project, hence the drop in the SP.

ALB,
Fact is the delay for the EPC's completion; Co blames it on Covid-0; fact or fiction? we don't know.
But you claim that the delay is a sinister plot by the Board; which you claim is a fact; even if you are proved right in the end, that still does not make your conspiracy theory a fact; your motivation is a fact though i.e. that you have zero shares and want to buy as cheaply as possible.
My theory is that the delay is a function of different variables incl. Covid-0, market turmoil making costing more difficult, and perhaps even some power plays (between the Chinese, RoC and the Co).
We have 10 working days to Xmas (and Y/E) and it's been 2 months since the EPC RNS, so delay and silence is worrying but other than that, the overall macro picture is slowly improving.

Oil price down, keeping the mine's construction costs in check;
Cheaper energy means more cash in farmers' pockets, to pay for fertilisers;
Covid-0 policy loosened in China, hopefully getting the EPC's conclusion nearer;
US Bond yields moving down, making debt portion of financing more bearable for the Consortium.

Now just waiting for the RNS.

Razza, obviously you seem to know better as it seems you have lived in much better places eg China, Iran, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey etc.
Why are you still living here though, since you are so unhappy?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-12-01/top-fertilizer-firm-nutrien-sees-shortfall-on-russia-and-belarus-woes?srnd=premium-europe#xj4y7vzkg

Fully agree ALB, things are not perfect and this is reflected in the SP.
If the delays are 0-Covid policy related only, then small worries for now; if delays are due to other power plays going on, then yea, trouble is still ahead.
As you say, we will have to know soon one way or another.

ALB,
Don't be disingenuous please; we know the risks (even the possibility of 100% capital loss), people are discussing Target prices now, after the EPC and financing and after the mine is built (so that's a lot of "jam tomorrow"). Nobody said that KP2 is worth 100p today or even after the financing is announced.
The potential rewards are there for those willing to stomach the HUGE risks; but saying that KP2 is worthless because of the delays (mostly due to Covid-zero policies in China) is somewhat misleading.
If you are right, we lose our money (and we know it); no news, no EPC etc - likely? yes - however...
If you are wrong, the SP is anyone's guess but definitely not 1p-1.3p (your last estimate). I still say that news will be out before the Y/E. IMO.
DYOR

You can call me a clown because you live in a free, liberal democracy (which you so obviously dislike).
Why don't you take a quick trip to your beloved non-free, illiberal autocracies and call any policeman there a clown? See if you will ever get back here.

actually, forget Brazil or China, Nigeria will be our best market!
https://africa.businessinsider.com/local/lifestyle/nigeria-to-become-the-3rd-most-populous-country-by-2050-what-does-this-mean/sv1m3xz

Whoever pays most, can buy our potash. End of story :)
(incl. nations who lock people up for waving blank sheets of A4).

the Omanis might sell to China, the Chileans might prefer Brazil.
Let's get the EPC done first :)

Potash sales are not sanctioned so the Chinese can buy straight from the Russians, at a discount (like they are doing now with oil etc).

Plus lots of positive buzz in the Western press, focusing on a new potash source in Africa (as opposed to Russia/Belarus), especially with the war going on for another year (or more).

Yes,I am aware of the 100p when the mine is ready, say in 4.5 years.
And I guess the risk discount would mostly disappear upon financing being announced.
So who knows? Maybe the Rock might be proved right, soon :)
GLA

Are you sure? That implies a success TP of 40p at today's potash prices (10p x2 x 2).
But is this upon financing achieved? Or a later stage?

wasn't aware of this, tnx!
So, 5p is rather conservative then (if all goes well).

FWIW, House Broker's TP is 5p; I assume based on the current situation; therefore, what will happen if/when the EPC is final (with financing details?) is anyone's guess.
IMO, unlikely for SP to jump only 10-30% if EPC RNS is issued and if accompanied with news about financing then it's very likely that 5p TP will be exceeded; whether 8p (10x current SP) will be reached, we will only know on news' release. IMO

ALB,
it's been 6 weeks since the EPC delay RNS, and 2 since we wrote back to the Minister.
I would assume that the Minister has been given (positive) inside info and asked to stay put (otherwise, why would he?).
But it could still go either way until we have the RNS we have been expecting.