Member Info for LTbeliever

Yes, at 2p and mkt cap of 17 mln (6 mln net cash), SP reflects the dilution.
If it returns to 60mln mkt cap (its high last year at 30p), the SP will only reach appx 6p.
Next RNS (Monday?) should tell us of the further dilution, if SH have injected another 2.5 mln today.
In 1 year, if the 150mln (appx) warrants are exercised at 3p, then there will be a total of 1 bln shares (appx) and the mkt cap will then be (at 3p), 30 mln; by definition, warrants will NOT be exercised UNLESS the SP is much higher than 3p (3.5-4p), so we will see in 1 year how things turn out. So, if 1 Bln shares at 4p after warrants are exercised, the Mkt cap will be 40 mln, and Co will receive another 4.5 mln in cash.
Personally, I'd rather the SP to be 4p+ in 1 year, and suffer another 13% dilution appx (150/850 mln shares), get 4.5mln cash, Vs the SP languishing at below 3p for 1 year and not be diluted further.

Rock,
Yea, we should have - if things go to plan - 3 positive catalysts by Y/E;
The letter to the Minister, the EPC's completion and the Financing RNS.

There could be (90% chance? IMO) a 50% upside to the SP (from 0.60 to 0.90) by 10 Nov, IF our letter to the Minister satisfies the RoC sufficiently to give KP2 and the Consortium more time to conclude the EPC (assuming no conclusion by then).
Ideally, the letter to the Minister should state a deadline to conclude the EPC, or the Minister himself could demand a deadline as a response to our Nov. letter - this would make the SP jump, IMO, if the new date is realistic for the Consortium (by giving clarity to the Mkt).

Kola Financing - nothing worrying or new
"The Consortium has advised that the strongly positive outcomes of the Study continue to support its proposed financing of Kola and it intends to provide the royalty and debt financing proposal for the full construction cost of Kola after the EPC contract terms are finalised."
Correspondence from Minister of Mines - so we should expect another RNS soon
"The Company intends to formally respond to the Minister's letter within the 30-day period afforded by the Minister."
Other Kola matters - business as usual, no sign of panic
"Separate from the Consortium's activity, Kore Potash's management team also continued discussions with potential offtake partners with the capability to procure all Kola production and who have expressed interest in partnering with the Company."
All in all, an encouraging RNS, plus USD 6 million in cash, enough for another year.

I find low volumes at this level (pending an important RNS) encouraging; not much more panic selling left and PIs have no reason to sell at such low levels and crystallise big losses.
New buyers will come in once there is clarity on the Letter and the EPC/Financing.
At this stage, it's either a 100% loss (license revocation) or 10x your money, with a favourable Financing structure.

Volume is too low for people to be able to "shift their holdings".
Liz leaving, markets calming down, rates coming down, all these are positive factors in helping the still ongoing fundraising; 31st October is also crucial as IIs are probably waiting for this to be out of the way b4 committing funds.
So, patience for 1-2 weeks more and then we will know about the dilution and the post-RNS mkt reaction to the Placing.
But, at 2.5p now (mkt cap of 5 mln Vs 60 mln last year), more upside than downside EVEN with a dilution.

Well, Covid and the catastrophic Zero-Covid Chinese policy are real; hence, the delays too.

I think the Mkt knows now that bankruptcy has been averted, the Board will be stronger and finance will be available soon for the next phase of growth, on a much sounder footing.
Only unknown is size of dilution but at this SP, the downside Vs the upside is definitely worth a punt.

12 Oct-11 Nov, so yes, ideally next week or so (1st of Nov) would be ideal to issue RNS that the Letter has been responded to.
We might not know what will be written to the Minister BUT if no EPC developments (finalisation) are released before this date, then:
1. they have to gain some time with the RoC so they may give give the Minister more inside info, to calm him down; this could happen well before the 11th Nov.
2. if nothing concrete is contained in the response, then we will know from the Minister's immediate reaction. In this case, they will delay the reply until the 11th, a Friday so the Market reaction will be on Monday the 14th Nov.
IMO, GLA

"The following Board changes are expected to take effect immediately upon the announcement of the Proposed Financing"
It appears that a Financing is being hammered out;
The new Holder/s want their CEO, to control GJB and the others;
GJB et al have accepted these terms;
Only timing of the Announcement is yet to be decided but it should be before Nov 14th;

IMO, notwithstanding the dilution, the rest is positive; both MW and Labskin remain in the Co, meaning the new holders believe in their potential; new CEO means better focus and cash control, both positive for future growth.
GLA

Sorry, last comment;
The Main holders are still holding because obviously they can not sell up; however, I am sure that you will agree with me that they have a huge incentive to find a quick solution to the current impasse.
Maybe send Liz to the RoC now that her hands are free?

ALB1,
to conclude, on the current Mkt price, you are looking at either:
1. losing 100% of your money possibly, OR
2. making >100x your current holding's worth
There is no right or wrong choice. It's up to each investor to stay put, buy more, or sell.

yes, 300 mln is a sunk cost so zero value if project is scrapped; I just mentioned as a way to compare with Mkt value.
For example, if you spent 300mln on a factory, and owner went bust, the factory would still be worth 300mln minus discount for quick sale (30%?); so, in our case, it's a huge drop in value (90%) purely reflecting the risk.
Yes, NPV means net of all the project costs, including building the mine.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-11343973/Water-firms-sewage-dumping-cost-UK-150bn.html?ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490&ito=1490

This low value, viz-a-viz both the money spent ($300m) and the expected NPV of the project ($2-5 Bln, depending on potash price sold), IS a reflection of the uncertainty about the financing.
The mix between royalty Vs bank debt is unknown and so the risk will depend on this mix; I'd assume that the banks 'd prefer a bigger share of offtake agreements.
Finance has nothing to do with the consortium (IMO) "changing minds" because both the debt and offtake will be rewarded according to the perceived risk; the past 10 years (when the KP2 project started) revolved around a low rate environment but during the past year both rates and volatility have shot up; this makes valuations and projections of high risk (financially) projects very difficult.
Obviously, nobody can get into the heads of the banks and other project participants BUT all the RNSs point to a simultaneous preparation of both the EPC and the financing structure (since April 21); recent 30% drop reflects the doubts and fears about the project taking off, not unreasonable given the delays, the Letter etc.
Insiders not selling is encouraging IMO.
Insiders buying the co, for 10mln as you say, is a contradiction - why buy PIs out if the License will be revoked, or "changed their minds"? Value will be zero.

Obviously biased but still, strange that no alarm is indicated re the Minister's Letter etc;
https://korepotash.com/investors/analyst-research/
"Conclusion: An unfortunate newsflow over the letter from the Minister of Mines expressing his discontent over lack of progress with regards to the Kola project as well as an arrest of two employees that, thankfully, were later released without charge. The Company highlights that it continues to timely update the Ministry over the funding of the Kola Potash Project and is finalising the EPC proposal stage of the process that is planned to be followed by discussions over a proposed debt/royalty financing. "

All will be revealed in less than 20 days.
Good or bad, we will see. I think, good.
GLA

Finally, if you look at the behaviour of the SP over the past month:

1. small drop on the 10th - so the EPC not being unqualified, indicates that things are not too bad;
2. small rise from 11th to 18th - indicates no leak or insider trading re the RoC letter of the 12th
3. 30% drop after the 19th - IMO, indicates PIs panic about the RoC letter (eg. about license loss)
Logic IMO says that this is a buying opportunity as nothing fundamental has changed; EPC will be finalised soon and financing will follow after.

As for the RoC Govt, why remove the license?
To sell/pass on to someone else? What faith would any firm have that, after spending 1.8 Bln USD to build the mine, the RoC Govt will not just come and take it?
The license is only worth if a mine will be built, otherwise it's just a piece of paper by an unreliable Govt.
With global liquidity short, projects cancelled worldwide, what's in the interest of RoC? To cancel everything and lose credibility with global miners/banks (who have lots of other opportunities), or sit tight and wait?
As I said, this is probably pure brinkmanship because the Minister is getting heat from further up.

Potash price is still high, hence attractive to the offtake providers; demand for food will not drop because of the Fed increasing rates;
Re the banks, usually when times are riskier they don't shut down - they just choose less risky projects to finance and up their rates to cover the risk. I assume that Chinese banks will still be willing to lend, given the collapse of Real Estate in China (fewer profitable projects) and the Chinese Govt will want a Chinese firm to build a mine in RoC rather than have thousands of chinese workers unemployed back home.
IMO