Member Info for LTbeliever

SQM, one of our main 2 inst. investors is making huge profits - so, no worries about KP2 running out of cash or support.
$2.755 BLN earnings in first 9 months of 2022, about 10 times those of 2021, thanks to crazy lithium prices. It could also help KP2 with offtake agreements, having a profitable shareholder with lots of power in the mining industry - IMO.
https://s25.q4cdn.com/757756353/files/doc_news/2022/11/PR_3Q22_ing_FINAL.pdf
DYOR

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/EML/potash-and-salt-offtake-mous-zpbmjxbdabjpaku.html
At, or near, potash mkt price...I think this is positive for us too

maybe I'm speculating here, but it's been over 10 days since our response to the Minister and no negative reaction (yet), including on the SP.
I would assume that the Minister has been (temporarily) satisfied with KP2's explanations, and is waiting (like everyone else) for the EPC's conclusion (and associated financing).

Thanks 99, with your permission I copy the important points:
"All the pieces of the puzzle on the funding side are identified and certainly, in the next 12 months, we’ll be bringing the project to financial close,” Rigny told Mining Weekly in a Zoom interview.
Given the project’s economics and its developmental multiplier aspects, there is significant appetite from private, development finance institution (DFI) and export credit agency (ECA) debt providers."

So, they are about 12 months behind KP2 and they need to raise about UD200 mln in equity; 300 mln in debt; how possible would that be, if the Minister revoked our license? This is a rhetorical question, I have no answer.

At least, ALB1 was honest enough to admit he's scared to buy and he hopes for a drop.
You, instead, post a 2-year old link of an unrelated case (IMO), and a few hours later you admit to selling shares at the low (post 12 Oct), thereby implying that you are hoping for a drop so that you can buy back in.

Fluffy, your words:
"No use in stirring fear and hope"...
RE: D Day approaching -- 09 Nov 2022 15:51
"I wont lie ... i sold a couple million shares when the news hit ... waiting it out with my bag till next year ...it i swhat it is. Win some, lose some"
RE: D Day approaching -- 09 Nov 2022 09:40
"Hopefully to avoid a **** show like this: https://www.mining.com/web/republic-of-congo-cancels-iron-ore-project-with-sundance-resources/"

Thanks ALB1,
Yes, hopefully an early Xmas gift.
Do let us know when you jump back in.

I think it's more like 99-1 ALB1, but even at 1% probability of expropriation, it'd be still be up to 100% loss of capital for PIs.
I don't disagree with you, you'd rather buy at 1.5-2p and make >30x your money for certain, rather than buy now and make 60x OR lose 100%.
There is no right or wrong approach, it's up to each individual's Risk appetite and financial situation (unless you have insider info).
GLA

The 300mln spent is a sunk cost, so yes, if no license then our shares will drop to whatever the MM thinks the co is worth (zero or more, no idea). However, some facts:
The EPC is almost done (financing is moving simultaneously), delayed by Covid zero policy in China (official reason)?
Minister is p...ed off by the 12 Oct RNS (more delay); he's got a job to do and had some heads to knock together; IMO, his letter was a plus by making the Chinese, especially, to get their act together;
Potash and fertilisers in short supply globally, population and hunger rising; war going on, security of supply has become paramount.
USA and China at each other's throats, would RoC wanna get in the middle by "gifting" our license to the Chinese and "scre...ng" the West? I can't say. But no other Western / Arab investor would touch the RoC.
China economy getting bad, fewer local projects to build, so bigger incentive for Chinese to get the mine off the ground.
RoC needs the project, will they risk another 1-2 years belay by cancelling our license, Vs waiting for 1-2 months more (IMO, could be days, could be more)? Why issue RNS on 12 Oct about EPC "almost" done if they expect another 6 month delay to conclude the terms? This is why I expect it sooner rather than later. IMO
Yes, we PIs face the risk of losing everything BUT this is why the expected rewards are big; My money is where my mouth is ALB1, the next RNS will be about either losing the license (so no point in investing), or EPC concluded 100% and financing to be announced shortly after - IMFknO
DYOR, Good luck to the holders

Alb, when I have the exact content of the next RNS I will let you know in advance so that you can invest.

Lamp, IMO means in my opinion, meaning it's not a fact; the BB is for exchanging views, not inside information.

So you should be very happy then ALBi, since you sold out as you have said.
I'm sure the Minister's letter has rattled a few people in Oman, Chile, RSA and China, so no harm in being patient for a few more days.

Albi, no update in the public domain; we don't know what info is in the letter. YET!
Did they just write "be nice to us?", or did they give him more sensitive info?
If the former, the Minister will lash out soon (but also the MM would know about the lack of progress and adjust the SP downwards) IMO
If the latter, it means that (my very wild guess) there has to be an RNS soon about the EPC & financing (which is the Minister's concern i.e the project's launch), otherwise the Minister has no interest in keeping quiet or not lashing out.

I'd assume that some assurances have been given to the RoC eg about the EPC's completion and the financing but the MLN $ question is, how much longer is the RoC gonna wait?
SP has not moved so the Mkt is waiting for further developments, soon, I hope. It's been 1 month since the EPC was announced so there must have been some progress towards finalisation of the pending terms, especially after the Minister's warning salvo.

Could be; but "no news" may not necessarily be bad news; there are potentially good and bad outcomes.
We definitely know that the deadline from the RoC is tomorrow, 11 th November.
If no RNS is issued by Mkt close tomorrow, what can we assume:
1. KP2 has not been able to reply (despite saying it would) - highly unlikely IMO;
2. KP2's letter has already gone but nothing mktworthy is contained therein, therefore no RNS; this is quite likely but in this case (we will know BY tomorrow), the Mkt Maker would/will reduce the SP accordingly, as it is very risky for KP2;
3. KP2's letter is with the Minister and contains mkt-sensitive info (good or bad, probably good); RNS is issued in a few days (next week or two?)
4. something else, but as the Mkt Maker will know if sensitive, will adjust SP up or down.

Given the SP rise from 0.60 (Bid) to 0.85 on NO NEWS whatsoever, I tend to think (subjectively) that news will be on the good side.
DYOR, GLA, we will soon know.

Keep watching ALbi, it's good for the SP :))

CBax,
Back in March, SP jumped to 1.70 when the Opt. Study was imminent (=leak). Since April, we have had the Opt Study released, the EPC almost done, sanctions on Russia/Belarus, tech/crypto bubble bursting, world pop. reaching 8bln, droughts and floods destroying arable land (requiring more investment in crop nutrients).
All the essentials for a successful project are in place, the only uncertainty now is the RoC govrnmt's reaction to the EPC's delay - will they jeopardise everything? that's the risk we are taking.

with a bit of luck...we will not see this SP ever again...we will soon know

I'm happy to take a 10% rise daily, before any RNS is released - leaks or no leaks :)

"down" to 0.90?
13% rise doesn't happen just like that, IMO.

seems like the MM knows something?