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George Friedman, chairman of Geopolitical Futures, told Newsweek that Russia's refusal to cut production had more to do with combatting the economic impact of coronavirus and was not intended to directly target the U.S.

"The Saudi recommendation for cutting production in order to increase prices is something Russia could do only if prices rapidly increase," Friedman said. "But given the downward pressure from the coronavirus, I think the Russians calculated that cutting prices wouldn't stabilize them and refused the Saudi request. It was not intended to hurt the U.S. but to try to protect the Russian economy."

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-targets-us-fracking-oil-price-war-new-threat-trumps-election-year-economy-1491126

The hope for the kingdom is that coronavirus fears subside, economic activity recovers, oil demand picks up and Russia agrees to a new output ceiling that is not that onerous. In such a scenario, Saudi Arabia would also end up reminding other oil producers that it still calls the shots within OPEC+.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-03-09/saudi-arabia-gambles-with-russia-coronavirus-on-oil-price-war

What brings you here ?
Previous to commenting on HUR, of your last 300 posts, 270 + were on EDL, 23 on GUN and a handful of comments were on other companies, last year.
You suddenly appear here, predicting a lower price for both oil and HUR, as if there is something original about predicting lower prices in a bear market.
You haven't declared what, if any, your interest in HUR is.
You know what you can do with your sausage.

I think a compromise may ultimately be reached, Genghis, in order to preserve the economies of both countries, as well as everyone's sanity.
By the way, Genghis: I'm still here [I mean on the outside ].

If oil falls to $3 pb, MTS, it won't be just RRE that's in danger of collapse, but the economies of Russia and SA too.
The price fall may damage the US oil industry, but the US economy doesn't depend on oil; the Russian economy does.
It's just a question of who blinks first - the Russians or Saudis.
The best way to end the crisis and the danger of losing face would be to reach a compromise, which is what I think will happen.

That explains it!
In my calculation, I assumed Brent will by then have returned to $60.
I realise that I risk being taken away for saying that, but the price of oil was $70 two months ago.
By 'dilution,' I meant the increase in share capital following full conversion of bonds.

I agree with you, MakinHay, although I was surprised to see a reference in your post to the Thai tourist resort, Phuket.
The share price is, as you note, mental.
PMO shares were marked down 80 percent at the open, and subsequently trebled, even though it was almost impossible to buy.
If a company announced unexpectedly that the CEO had disappeared with all the assets, one could understand it, but nothing had actually happened, other than the Saudis throwing a tantrum.
I think the HUR SP is now totally out-of-touch with reality.
For example, if in 2022-2023, production does reach 40 kbopd, and sterling is $1.33, then even after dilution, earnings will be 18p per share, putting the shares on a P/E ratio of 0.6.

I didn't go online at the open.
To mark them down to 10p at the open was ridiculous and I'm not surprised the price has trebled.
By the time I tried to buy, they were 26p.
I might not have tried, had I first checked the day's low, but I couldn't buy.
I did manage eventually to get a long spread bet.
It does show how completely pointless it is to buy when prices are high.

Thanks, Manyana.
' “We have very supportive investors and they continue to show confidence in the business,” he said, adding that the restructured board and cost-reductions had bolstered its investment case. He said it would have time to secure an “attractive partner” and develop the well. '

He is implying that the major investors will take up their entitlements to any new shares offered and that the cash injection should last long enough to complete farm-out negotiations.

Maybe the Saudi Oil Massacre will have ended before negotiations are concluded.

“This is a very unexpected and irrational decision to put it mildly,” Russian media quoted Fedun [co-owner of Lukoil] saying on Friday.

Spare a thought for the Israelis: this is the kind of Middle Eastern logic they have to put up with.

I'm annoyed with the Russians for not agreeing maximum cuts, but the Saudi reaction is totally inexcusable.

Seems we posted at about the same time, Alibi.
I agree with you that such low oil prices are unlikely to last long.
That is precisely why I think the same about PMO's share price - when the oil price recovers, they will be able to continue paying off their debt.

I'm not sure about that, LC.

People have been unable to buy TLW or PMO this morning.
If everyone is so desperate to sell them, why is it so difficult to take the shares off their hands?
PMO was 10p this morning and is now about 27p.
It was 115p a few weeks ago.
When the Saudis end their games, these prices will look like a dream.

Thanks too, Miss Dosh.
I was aware of the protective role of vitamin D against viruses.
For example,
'Low levels of vitamin D and exposure to the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) have been linked to the development of multiple sclerosis (MS), new research shows ...'
and it is thought that most people are deficient in vitamin D, although laboratory reference ranges do not reflect that supposed fact.
I don't know why Dr Campbell is talking about the possibility of millions becoming infected when he obviously does believe the Chinese figures (although not the Iranian ones).
He says the West is not doing well compared with China, so presumably he is expecting an explosion of numbers in countries outside China - and not just in Italy.
The recovery rate in China is now 72.5 percent, compared with 55 percent exactly a week ago.
I suppose even if the disease has almost cleared up in China in a few weeks' time, it will hardly compensate us for the mayhem being committed by the Saudis.

SA is threatening to sell its oil at a discount, but everyone knows that it wanted an agreement to support prices.
There is simply no point in keeping the price at $30 for a long period, as it will achieve the opposite of SA's declared aim and hurt Saudi Arabia herself - and it has been claimed that she needs a price of $80 to balance her budget.

Take a look at the crude/Brent historical chart.
Prices fell to about $30 in January 2009 and January 2016.
Both times, the prices subsequently trebled.

The total number of deaths in Italy is 366, but in the rest of Europe, including the UK, is just 44.

The total number of deaths in China is 3098, but in the rest of Asia is just 66.

The total number of deaths in Iran is 194, but in the rest of the Middle East it is just 7.

The total number of deaths in the USA is just 19, and only 1 in the whole of the rest of the Americas.

Daily death rates are rising in Europe, while apparently falling in China, but it seems that the virus is largely being prevented from spreading from the very few countries in which it has killed large numbers.

'...given the huge discounts KSA are offering on their crude, which the Russians will have to match ; where will it end?'

(Genghis)

Well, I suppose it could end in the fall of the House of Sa'ud, which would certainly give the media a story to keep THEM going (except that unlike almost everyone else, their existence seems never to be in doubt).

Then, I suppose we would have headlines of '$200 oil', with anti-American (possibly Iranian-backed) Islamists taking over SA and threatening to plunge the Middle East into perpetual chaos.'

My understanding is that the huge discounts offered will not become real until April, giving the Russians plenty of time to reach a compromise.

'Low prices cure low prices...'

Brent fell below $34 in 2008 and $28 in January 2016, but recovered to $85 in October 2018, after experts predicted it would never reach $100 again.
Only months before falling to $34, it had been $147 and people were talking about $200.
Now they are talking about $20.
SA would go bust on $20 oil.

AND NOW, BOND NONSENSE

'unless the bondholder has elected to redeem by paying 40p for shares that are currently 14.44p ...'

We don't know what the circumstances will be in the approach to July 2022, which Is two years, four and a half months away.

If, for example, sterling had recovered to $1.60, and the shares were above 32.5p, the bondholders would have an incentive to convert them.

At around the time that the bonds conversion deadline approaches, the company should be producing 40 kbopd.

If oil averages about $60 at that time, and Capex is $18, that would possibly produce a net amount of about £380m p.a.

If sterling were $1.40, the conversion threshold is just above 37p and annual profit from oil revenue would be £438m, against £164 m, in the event all bond holders opted not to convert their bonds to shares.
It has been reported that TLF has been feasting on bond mania after having failed to quench his thirst with water cuts.

I've only just seen your last post.
I'd forgotten about your possible encounter with CV.
Whether it was CV or something else, you obviously have a strong constitution.
Just as well, when you're investing in an AIM stock.

I'm relieved to hear, Double, that the beauties are still kissing your cheeks and not insisting on bumping elbows instead.
When I mentioned France, I didn't mean for one moment that CV would dare go anywhere near you.
I'm sure it would have the fright of its life, especially after the way you dealt with TSD.
By the way, since it seems no-one is going to attempt to answer my question, i.e.
'What is the difference between TSD and an STD?'
I may as well answer it myself:
'The difference is that you can get rid of an STD.'
(filtering it unfortunately leaves traces of the infection, and the administrators appear unwilling to eradicate it.)

China's recovery rate has reached 70.7 percent.
It has been rising by five percent every few days.
If the figures are genuine, the virus is certainly on the wane.

You've made a number of points during recent weeks or months, Manyana:
You thought TOR went because potential suitors wouldn't deal with him; you think Petronas could be a suitor; you say Petronas had deals with TOR which he didn't go through with.

It could just add up.