Member Info for LONGWAIT

Welcome to the 'Filter BB Club,' Double.
As for MBS's ordering the arrests in SA, I had read about it and it suggests paranoia on his part.
It is also reported that he became convinced that Putin has been cheating on their longstanding deal on limiting production, and that this played a part in their falling out.

I think there are many possible ways in which the Saudi strategy could backfire: if it works too well, it will do so much damage to the world economy that it won't then be possible to raise the price to $60, which is what MBS really wants.
There could then be chaos in Venezuela, Iraq, and even Saudi Arabia, with MBS's fans there turning on him as the Saudi balance of payments steadily deteriorate and economies have to be made.
My feeling is that the strategy will come unstuck if it is implemented, most likely as a result of political pressure, but I'm not even sure that MBS will go through with it.
Doomster posters never consider that possibility, because it would destroy their dreams of ruin.

It's £12.13 to buy now, JB, just below where it opened yesterday.
It could open higher again on Monday.
I was interested in it because of the talk of the dividend, but was busy averaging down on other stocks.
According to LSE, even after the recent recovery, the shares yield 12 percent.

The Dow Jones closed up 1,985 points.
I was expecting to see a post by TSD, informing us that it had closed down 1,985 points, or from WorldGoRound , telling us that this is the 'biggest crash in history of world', but they seem to have made themselves scarce.

Yes, canetois, barring a miracle, the weekly Haj will be cancelled.
Disaster strikes the Premier League just as Premier Oil is recovering!

Everywhere you look in Saudi Arabia, disaster seems to loom on the horizon. This week the region of Qatif, a Shia stronghold in the oil-rich Eastern Province, was put under quarantine for two weeks because of coronavirus. All international visitors are now banned from entering the country, just months after the new tourism industry — part of a drive to diversify the economy away from oil — was launched. Mosques in Mecca and Medina have been closed, the umrah — or lesser pilgrimage — put on hold, and barring a miracle eradication of the virus in the next few months, the annual hajj will be cancelled for the first time ever. This means billions of dollars of lost revenues in a country with a colossal $50 billion budget deficit and which — because of Bin Salman’s most recent reckless move — is preparing an emergency budget for this year based on oil being as low as $12 a barrel.
Meanwhile, military checkpoints have been set up all over Riyadh, the capital, after Bin Salman launched yet another purge of perceived rivals. Dozens of senior princes, interior ministry big wigs and military figures were arrested and accused of planning an imminent coup with the help of Washington’s intelligence agencies. So Bin Salman, having alienated Russia and gone to war against the American shale industry, finds himself more isolated internationally than ever, and with no powerful friends or allies at home apart from the ailing king. He has torpedoed the world economy, and in doing so may have created other problems much closer to home.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/crude-tactics-russia-and-saudi-arabia-s-war-over-oil-prices

You think 8.24p could have been the bottom, PTS?

I'm not sure whether you're referring to my post about PMO, Genghis, but in case of any misunderstanding, I was referring to discussion about PMO on the PMO BB.

I mean: that happened yesterday.
Today, it's up 70 percent.

Well, Daltry, when poster after poster said the oil price slump would kill PMO, a poster calmly explained about the hedging.
He wasn't even worried.

I've bought some more!

I disagree.
The recovery rate in China is about to breach 80 percent, with mortality down to single figures daily and only 10 or 20 new cases daily.
That has been achieved just two to three months since the outbreak began.
If other countries take similar measures, then with the help of the summer heat, they should be able to reduce mortalities to a trickle by the summer.

Having missed the chance to buy at 57p last time, when it bottomed, I just bought some more.
I paid 55p.

OPEC’s second-largest producer, Iraq, has been grappling with street protests for months and the coronavirus outbreak for a few weeks, and now it faces another tough ­test for its finances—the oil price crash will likely force heavily-oil-dependent Iraq to suspend new infrastructure and energy projects.
The OPEC producer may also have to resort to international borrowing to make sure it can pay salaries to public servants after oil prices collapsed to half the price Baghdad had planned to budget this year, Iraqi lawmakers and officials told Reuters.
Iraq, which relies on oil revenues for 95 percent of its budgetary income, is one of the least diversified economies in the Middle East. It will likely have to enforce strict austerity measures after its fellow OPEC member and the cartel’s de facto leader, Saudi Arabia, launched an all-out oil price war with Russia, after the former allies abruptly ended the OPEC+ production cut deal last Friday.
“The oil price collapse ... means the deficit will be doubled and the only choice left for Iraq is to resort to international creditors,” Mudhhir Salih, an economic advisor in the office of Iraq’s prime minister, told Reuters.
According to an analysis of Iraq Oil Report of official Iraqi export data, should Brent Crude prices stay at around US$30 a barrel, Iraq’s revenues would be less than US$3 billion a month, which is US$2 billion short of the sum Iraq needs just to pay its current expenses.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/OPECs-No2-Suffers-From-Saudi-Russian-Oil-Price-War.html

IF the Venezuelans can succeed in brokering peace between Russia and SA, and oil prices recover, the share price may have bottomed.

Venezuela Looks To Play Mediator Between OPEC And Russia
By Julianne Geiger - Mar 12, 2020, 8:30 PM CDT
Venezuela is in discussions with OPEC and Russia about the current oil price collapse, Nicolas Maduro said on Thursday at a press conference shown on Twitter, according to Russian news agency TASS.
According to Maduro, Venezuela reached out to its “partners” to take steps toward opening up a new dialogue between OPEC and non-OPEC nations.
Venezuela, an oil-dependent economy that has seen its production drop by half over the last couple of years, has already been dealing with low oil prices, with the price of its Merey falling almost $20 per barrel month on month in February, or 35%, mostly from lower demand in China, according to OPEC’s most recent Monthly Oil Market Report.
It is particularly susceptible to even lower oil prices of today and is motivated to bring the two spatting parties together.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuela-Looks-To-Play-Mediator-Between-OPEC-And-Russia.html

The price war between Russia and Saudi Arabia will cut Venezuela’s oil revenue by $6 billion this year, according to consulting firm Ecoanalitica, which estimates 2019 oil revenue was $23.1 billion. Traders buy Venezuelan crude at a discount of about $20 to international benchmarks due to the complications of buying sanctioned oil, according to Francisco Monaldi, a lecturer at Rice University.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/maduro-says-oil-price-crash-is-brutal-blow-to-venezuela

Last night, before I went to bed, Brent was $32.80.
It touched $35 about 45 minutes ago.

I guessed that something like that had happened, Double, and don't blame you for absenting yourself.
As you say, it's impossible to call the bottom, but as another poster pointed out, the lower it goes, the greater the upside.
I know there are doomsters (one of whom posted yesterday on another share and was actually called by me - and you know how unfailingly polite I am - a 'sociopath', after I discovered that he had been predicting the end of company after company and urging everyone to sell) who like to scoff at the idea of upside when the world is about to end.
I will simply mention the fact that HUR previously rose from about this level to 67.5p.

I appreciate your taking the time to reply to my SOS, JB, even though the world is collapsing.
I can't see any blue privacy icon bottom left!
The one I want to get rid of is bottom right and I don't see any 'off' option.
It's funny that you should mention ccleaner, because I used to use it on a previous computer.
As for cookies, not only do I avoid eating them, but I delete them regularly, along with my browsing history.

Like you, Du, I'm optimistic about JOG long term.
Unfortunately, there are people on this forum and others who trot out the usual groundless arguments against investing in a company like this.
For example, allegedly, it's a titchy little company and no major would be interested in it; it doesn't matter how many hundreds of millions of barrels of oil it has got, because it's never going to get them out of the ground; there's no future in oil because it's going to be replaced by hydrogen or something else - and also because there soon won't be any left.
The latest 'argument' against investing in JOG is that MBS, supposedly, is going to keep oil at $20 for eternity and JOG will never be able to make a profit.
I am going to stick my neck out and make a prediction: oil is going to be around and being produced long after MBS has departed - and let's not forget that King Faisal of SA did not die naturally, peacefully or expectedly.
Furthermore, the chances are that the pandemic as well as this oil price crisis will end long before JOG gets to First Oil.
Unlike oil producers, JOG needn't regret having failed to hedge against a fall in price.

' With substantial hedging in place at $65 pb until July, running out of cash is not going to happen.'
(Bladesman)

The fact that you needed to point this out is a bad sign.

According to a Chinese expert on the Corona Virus, if other countries followed WHO guidelines and applied them as strictly as China has, the pandemic could be over by June:

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/china-coronavirus-adviser-expects-global-coronavirus-pandemic-to-be-over-by-june

If PMO's hedging lasts till July, then strict measures as well as the effects of heat on the virus could mean the pandemic is on its way out by the time the oil price can even start to do PMO serious damage.

Most of what I have read on this forum today is not reasoned argument so much as sheer panic.