Member Info for LONGWAIT

Yes, SNW, and we have a good idea of the Saudis' projected price: $60 or more.

That is, after they have finished trying to get it down to $20.

"Viruses thrive in lower temperatures, which is why CoV has spread fast to south-east Asian countries that are cooler and less humid than India. South Korea and Japan have seen rapid transmission. At the same time, India seems to have averted an outbreak, despite receiving a patient from China in early February," told KK Aggarwal, President, Heart Care Foundation of India to The Times of India.

https://weather.com/en-IN/india/science/news/2020-03-04-weather-the-real-hero-saving-india-coronavirus-experts-conflicted

Coronavirus ‘highly sensitive’ to high temperatures, but don’t bank on summer killing it off, studies say

•Pathogen appears to spread fastest at 8.72 degrees Celsius, so countries in colder climes should ‘adopt the strictest control measures’, according to researchers from Sun Yat-sen University in Guangdong province
•But head of WHO’s health emergencies programme says it is ‘a false hope’ to think Covid-19 will just disappear like the flu

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074131/coronavirus-highly-sensitive-high-temperatures-dont-bank-summer

Similar to COVID-19, the first SARS case was recorded late in the year. The number of confirmed cases peaked in April 2003, and no more patients were found in July. Scientists have never discovered a cure for SARS, and it is widely believed the virus dies off during warm weather.

As temperatures rise, coronavirus floats in the air or attaches to surfaces -- both places where it can survive for only a short time. But once in the body, its ability to infect does not decrease, said Ma Ke, a doctor at Wuhan Tongji Hospital.

zhttps://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Caixin/Will-warm-weather-kill-new-coronavirus-Scientists-not-sure

'SA need $80 to balance their books which is why they were pressing for more cuts ... If the reservoir works HUR will survive.'

May I change that to:

'The reservoir works. HUR will survive. If SA persists with treating America, Russia and the oil markets the way they treated Khashoggi, it won't survive.'

I think you're the one confusing day and night, AqS!

It's 18 C in the early afternoon in Tehran, but 12 C now, at 22:25.
In the morning, it is expected to fall to 8 C.
It isn't hot there yet.

I suppose, MTS, that now that the Saudis have a blood feud with the Ruskis, they won't be satisfied with anything less than the Russians coming begging for forgiveness on hands and knees.
Maybe they think they can bully the Russians into agreeing to the terms already refused by them on Friday.
At the moment, though, it's the Saudis, not the Russians, who are refusing to talk.

'The hot weather doesn't appear to be killing it off in Iran'
(AqS)

At this moment, the temperature in Tehran is 12 C and in Ahvaz, the hottest city in Iran, 17 C.

Not exactly sweltering.

I couldn't find the article under 'News and Insights' but Invesco directed me to it here:

https://www.invesco.co.uk/uk/news-and-insights/economic-and-financial-implications-of-the-covid-19-crisis

He made the point that the summer weather should kill CV off - something I think someone here may have mentioned.

This is all inordinately aggravating and if I survive this, I suppose I can survive anything.
I agree with littlened that this is no normal undervaluation.
The problem is that if the Saudis keep the price low enough for long enough, HUR won't be able to make much profit and the bonds could then become an issue.
It's as if the market is assuming the worst will happen, which is what it is in the habit of doing.
I don't see this collapse in the oil price lasting long for the following reasons:

(1) Saudi Arabia wants an oil price of $60 or more.
As Leonid Fedun, managing director of Lukoil, observed, the Saudi strategy is 'irrational.'
There is simply no point in keeping the oil price at $20 for two years, when what you really want is $60.
(2) The oil price was already weak before the Saudis made their demands of the Russians, because of the Corona Virus.
It's the Corona Virus that was bugging the Saudis.
It is arguable that they have overestimated the economic effect CV will have had by the time it is over.
(3) The recovery rate in China stands at 76.26 percent.
In a couple of weeks' time, it could be well into the nineties.
That does not seem to me to pose a menace to the Chinese economy.
The focus has, naturally, turned to Italy, where the recent figures are shocking, and gradually fatalities are occurring in new countries, including (today) Lebanon and Indonesia (one each).
The Chinese have shown - or are close to proving - that the virus can be brought under control and it hasn't taken them very long, either.
Once normality has returned, it will be interesting to see what effect it has on the oil price.
(4) Projections are for the oil price to rise in the coming years, presumably because of an increasing world population, economic developments in developing countries, and increasing scarcity.
None of those factors will change because of the Corona Virus or Saudi tantrums.
The price will return to $60.
When depends partly on how long the Saudis decide to cripple their own economy along with that of others, including unstable Venezuela.
But I'm not sure the Saudis and their gulf allies are going to be able to control events because life is not that simple.
If the Saudis do succeed in getting the price down to $20, many companies may decide to store oil instead of selling it.
I don't know whether HUR's contract with BP would permit that.
It's just - and I'm not underestimating how stressful it could be - a matter of sitting this out until the Saudis have satisfied their sadistic urges or realise they aren't getting anywhere.
Picking a fight with the Russians isn't always a good idea.

I was thinking that there could be a case for boycotting SA, but then it occurred to me that there could be considerable practical difficulties.
One could hardly call TUI (if they're still around after their shares have fallen by 75%) and ask to cancel one's holiday.
What's the point of going there unless one is partial to death by stampede at the Haj, or in urgent need of 'drying out '?
Then, it would hardly be possible to remove SA products from one's shopping bag, as they are extremely difficult to locate in a supermarket.
And how can you boycott the one product they do sell, when they are practically giving it away?
So I suppose the BDS movement will have to confine their efforts to boycotting a country that has never treated the Russians in the despicable way that the Saudis have, even though it was itself boycotted by the USSR for decades, and to whom we are indebted for the very parts in the computers on which we type these comments - Israel.

In the event you are in the unfortunate position of still seeing TSD's investor-baiting comments, there is one option other than filtering: you can report him to administration.

Just click on 'Report Post'.

I beat you to it by nearly an hour, Genghis!

Brent oil prices jumped 10% on Tuesday above $37 per barrel after Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said Moscow was ready to discuss new measures with OPEC, effectively offering an olive branch to Riyadh.

But Saudi Arabia’s energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman appeared to rebuffed the idea.

"I fail to see the wisdom for holding meetings in May-June that would only demonstrate our failure in attending to what we should have done in a crisis like this and taking the necessary measures,” Prince Abdulaziz told Reuters.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/saudi-arabia-russia-raise-stakes-123106547.html

It is at least possible to discuss things rationally with Russians.
Trying to negotiate with Arabs is another matter.

Thanks, DC, for the link to the interview with Zac Phillips.
I too think the oil price will rebound strongly during the next couple of years.
Brent was $70 in January and I don't see why it shouldn't get back to that by 2022.
I said previously what I thought about Jamie Ashcroft, who was positive about HUR before First Oil, but found everything wrong with it after it had been producing for nearly eight months and after its SP had fallen by 60 percent - which is not rational.
Minutes ago, I read reviews of TUI by Rupert Hargreaves on TMF.
On 23rd May, he wrote about 'speculation that the company is hiding the majority of its obligations in joint ventures', 'I think it might be worth giving Tui a wide berth for the time being' and 'I’m sceptical that the company can maintain its current 7.8% dividend yield.'

Yet on 19 November, less that four months later, he said he would invest in 'FTSE 100 dividend champion' TUI, explaining:
'investors can look forward to an 8.4% total annual return for the foreseeable future ... Analysts have pencilled in earnings growth of 43% for fiscal 2020, and the dividend is expected to rise as well, hitting €0.67 per share, giving a dividend yield of 5.5% on the current share price.'

Talk about Jekyll and Hyde!

I'm not comparing Zac Phillips with either Ashcroft or Hargreaves.

On 22 March, when the SP was 49p, Hargreaves wrote about HUR:
'If the company can bring its flagship Lancaster oil field ... into production successfully, investors could be well rewarded. However, if the company fails as so many other oil exploration companies have done before it, then shareholders could lose everything ...
Management still believes that the production system will be up and running during the first half of 2019, but after two setbacks already, if I were an investor, I would be starting to get worried.'
All of Hargreaves fears have been laid to rest, yet the SP has fallen by nearly 80 percent since he said, 'investors could be well rewarded' if the EPS were successful.

Come on, Heidelberg - it's not that bad!
There was a gigantic trade worth £31.04 yesterday.

Trinity's market capitalisation is one eighth of HUR's and its production about one-seventh, so measured by production, its SP is only slightly cheaper than HUR's.
Its operating break-even is $26.30, which is higher.
It had about 2.75p per share in cash at the end of last year.

A long-standing deal between Saudi Arabia and Russia — two of the world’s oil-producing powerhouses — fell through over the weekend, sending global markets into a spiral and dashing future economic prospects in the US.

And it has almost everything to do with the coronavirus — or, more specifically, the drop in Asia’s oil consumption that’s being driven by the coronavirus outbreak there.

https://www.vox.com/2020/3/9/21171406/coronavirus-saudi-arabia-russia-oil-war-explained

The recovery rate in China is about to break through 75 percent and the daily deaths figure has been in a downtrend, now down to 17.

If the epidemic in China peters out soon and Chinese demand increases, the Saudis' strategy may yet unravel.

Well, they did bottom out last time at about the same time in January 2016: HUR at 8.85p and Brent at about $27.75.

But at that time, HUR had no EPS and no income.

... especially, Alibi, when you consider that although buys outnumbered sells by 2:1, the price continued to fall, having opened at 12p.
It should have finished well above 12p.

'it's a worrying symptom of the current madness and paranoia.'

I read an article tonight about how worries about CV have caused the fall on Wall Street.
There is something misleading about a claim made at the end of the article that there ARE more than 110,000 cases worldwide.
There HAVE BEEN more than 110,000 cases worldwide, but most of those infected have ALREADY RECOVERED, and the article doesn't mention this fact.
It reminds me of the supposed worry that HUR has never recorded an annual profit, which implies misleadingly that the company is not profitable.
The main thing is that you catch the RNS and not the virus.
I read that it is possible to catch it twice, which could be relevant in your case, Double.
I'm not sure Dr Campbell would advise you to attend the tournament.
You never know what those cards may have been marked with!

The mention of the 'long-term share options agreement' is just one of several clues that have been announced during the last few months, from which anyone could have deduced that the company was not about to go into receivership, but doomsters are not to be distracted by such signs.

Another sign was the announcement that the company was seeking a new CEO.
While such hints were being circulated, we were getting posts about how the company was about to run out of cash and go under.