Member Info for LONGWAIT

Another concern, JB, is that France seems to be starting to catch up with Italy.

If the Chinese figures are accurate, they have got the outbreak well under control, with the numbers dying daily being in a downtrend and a recovery rate of almost 69 percent.
The real problem is Italy, where the toll seems to be rising by about 20 percent each day and the recovery rate has fallen to just above 10 percent.

Wrong, Oiler!

It's YOU who only want to see parts of the picture - the parts that could discourage shareholders, such as the fall in the share price, which is not proof that HUR was ever 'massively overvalued.'

Looking at your posting history, oiler87, I wonder why you have suddenly turned your attention to HUR.

You posted the same gulfbusiness link on nine BBs, one of which is HUR, between 20:00 and 20:11 today.
You posted the same Bangkok Post link on five BBs, one of which is HUR, between 19:46 and 19:53 today.
Both links are suitably doom-laden.
Until today, you hadn't commented on HUR for three months.
Your last comment had been:

02 Dec 2019 09:15
Warwick Deep.
"Following completion of drill stem testing of the Warwick Deep well, the decision has been made to plug and abandon the well."
Warwick West.
"the rig will now plug and abandon the well before demobilising."

You posted that comment twice, 46 minutes apart, presumably in case investors hadn't been sufficiently demoralised the first time.

Your comment before that one was:

RE: Calm down
02 Dec 2019 08:13

An offshore well needs a minimum of 3000bpd to consider going into development.
Another point to consider here is the Mcap of £920,000,000.

IMO, you are marginally less insidious than TSD, but will end up in the same place: the filter bin.

In a note to clients, analysts at SPAngel commented: "Following a disappointing year with the drill-bit at the GWA in 2019, today’s update provides additional clarity on the forward plan for these assets.

"It is no secret that Centrica has put its 69% stake in Spirit up for sale as it pursues a greener portfolio, and a reduction in committed capital clearly makes this deal more attractive to potential buyers. For Hurricane, this firmly places the destiny of the GWA development in their hands, whilst retaining the optionality of the original farm-out agreement if fully developed past phase 2."

They added: "With the Lancaster EPS throwing off material cash flows stemming from an admirable 20kbopd production rate, Hurricane can comfortably meet the additional upfront costs, if required, without any dilution to shareholders (either asset or equity), and so we see this as a good deal for both sides."

https://www.scotsman.com/business/hurricane-energy-takes-more-costs-renegotiation-north-sea-joint-venture-spirit-2177127

Just a thought, goldust:
using your figures, but replacing $50 with $60, which is where it may well stabilize when the virus crisis finally ends, and using an exchange rate of $1.30, and allowing for full conversion of bonds, gives a P/E ratio of 1.4, falling to 0.7 when production rises to 40 kbopd.

I'm not sure that that's cheap enough for Ashcroft or Hosie, but it's cheap enough for me.

I've just realised: your dividend estimate takes into account the 25p final dividend.
I actually make it 6.7 percent.

I've just realized: your dividers estimate takes into account the 25p final dividend.
I actually make it 6.7 percent.

Yes - I'm sure.
I remembered that the 'increase' would be 25p, but couldn't remember where I had read it.
I've just found it:

RockRose Energy PLC on Tuesday declared a maiden interim dividend, with further returns to be expected in its current financial year.

RockRose will be paying 60 pence per share for the six months to June 30, and is planning to return a further 25p as a final dividend.

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1569320195783394100/rockrose-energy-pays-first-ever-dividend-after-transformation-deal.aspx

Doesn't that mean that the total dividend shown by LSE is wrong?
Or does it mean that a final dividend is not taken for granted?

I'm not sure we're at the bottom yet, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Russians belatedly did a deal and oil surged.
Brent touched $70 in January and was $55 early in the week, and is obviously oversold.
It wouldn't take much to flush the shorters out.
I think the share price fall may have accelerated as a result of small investors throwing in the towel, which is what many do near the bottom.
I wish I had invested here at flotation or even a year or two later, but I was distracted by my losses (usually) on other oil stocks and didn't buy here until a couple of months ago.
I really didn't expect to get a good chance to average down, but it seems to be coming.
I think it will turn out well in the end, but could be a painful experience along the way.
By the way, I read somewhere that there is a plan to raise the dividend.
Does anyone know anything about this?
Thanks

'I'm told Victor Meldrew is cheerful by comparison...............'

I don't BELIEVE it!!!

I believe that after conversion, there would be 2.434 bn shares, an increase of 22 percent. reducing any EPS figures calculated on the basis of the present number of shares in issue by 18 percent.

Yes, indeed, Manyana.

Linn said that now, attitudes have changed and the majors are interested in proven oil fields that need to be developed, rather than exploration.

That's obviously why they pulled out of South Dunquin and Avalon.

In a post a few weeks ago, I indicated the number of extra shares that can be expected to be created by conversion of bonds.
That obviously would affect earnings per share.
As for Lancaster, I think it is expected to continue production after six years.

My advice for bedtime reading, listening and viewing, DU, is to avoid :

Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (an early study of crowd psychology)
Skeeter Davis, singing 'The End of the World'
'Titanic' the movie
Japanese movie, 'Boom or Bust'
The movie 'The Treasure of the Sierra Madre,' about ill-fated gold prospecting
'The Crash', a 1932 American drama film, starring Ruth Chatterton as a luxury loving wife devastated by the Wall Street crash of 1929.
(not sure what a luxury wife is, but don't let your wife near this movie)

Provided you keep away from such materials, you should survive in your bunker - even if no-one else does.

Yes, Sir Nigel, there is something so unassuming about Linn's manner that only a paranoiac could imagine he might try to pull a fast one.
TOR never did, but - perhaps partly because he was never really an oil man - he acquired a bad image.
PS: let's wait and see what the Russians do first, before deciding whether doomsday is approaching.
IF the Chinese numbers are reliable, the recovery rate in China has reached 67 percent.
Italy is doing badly and the virus is spreading in Europe, but presumably every country is doing its utmost to prevent the disease from spreading.
Only a few countries have so far been badly affected.
It's just a question of when the tide will turn, both for the virus and oil price.

' I'm happily married (although the wife tells me she's not).'

You can never believe what a woman tells you!

I've only just read the RNS, financial press's interpretation of it, and most of today's posts.
I would add only the following comments:
First, after all the muck thrown at HUR, with certain people - including TLF, Jamie Ashcroft, James Hosie and - last as well as least - TSD - questioning whether HUR's barrels contain oil, whether the company is a stable producer, and whether the company even has a future,
and with all the doubts expressed here about whether HUR was producing 12,500 bopd, let alone 20,000 bopd, because of sightings,
and despite the reasonable expectation that initial production would be slightly less than 20 kbopd,
the company confirms an increase of 50 percent to 20 kbopd
and the share price makes a new - almost 4-year - low!
To be honest, the thing that impresses me most is not the confirmation of 20 kbopd, which I said I didn't doubt would come, but the reaction of all genuine investors here.
As I said a few years ago (!), the things to worry about are the oil price and general stock market, not the HUR management.
I hadn't reckoned at that time with a concerted 'character assassination' of the company, but that should pass.
One final thought: if RB knew about the likely contents of the RNS before accumulating his stake, does that mean he has read the market correctly?

:

First, after all the Muck thrown at HUR, with certain people - including TLF, Jamie Ashcroft, James Hosie and - last as well as least - TSD - questioning whether HUR's barrels contain oil, whether the company is a stable producer, as whether the company even has a future,

and with all the doubts expressed here about whether HUR was producing 12,500 bold, let

it is entirely fitting that on the day that HUR confirms a

That was the explanation I myself offered just a few days ago!

02 Mar 2020 00:37

'The latest figures indicate a recovery rate of more than 50 percent worldwide, but 55 percent in China.
I suppose the difference is due to the fact that patients in China have had longer to recover.
I think that the recovery percentages will improve further and progressively.'

But on another oil BB, someone said he's sure the Chinese figures cannot be trusted and then I read a report which suggested massaging of figures, by omitting data for certain areas.
The figures do vary considerably: e.g., 66 percent have recovered in Thailand, although it's not comparable with China, as only one person has died.
I think the question concerning the reliability of Chinese figures is important, because if they are reliable, then that means the country where the virus originated is well on the road to recovery.

Yes.
You're right, Aqua, about travel restrictions NOW, but what if the Chinese are fiddling their figures and eventually the figures indicate that the epidemic has ended when it actually hasn't?
Then those travel restrictions might be lifted prematurely.
Maybe the Chinese will do another fiddle and keep the recovery rate at 99 percent, in order to avoid having to declare the epidemic over.