Member Info for LONGWAIT

Recent posts by WorldGoRound:

12 Mar 2020 20:03
Posted in: TUI
this will never be tempting in a million years
90% of all Wall Street era companies have vanished off face of planet

Posted in: CNA
Captain to rear gunner bale out now!
12 Mar 2020 19:57
Bale out now in a death spiral
this going to ZERO!
Thank lucky stars I dont own any shares
You got a week-at most

Posted in: FGP
no chance this going into ground
12 Mar 2020 19:53
going to zero

Posted in: LLOY
hey guys you know this is going to zero?
12 Mar 2020 19:52
biggest crash in history of world

In my opinion, posters like him are sociopaths - like vandals and arsonists - who want to see others suffer.

It's strange: on just about every company I look at here, I see the same definite opinions: 'it's hard to see the company surviving,' only a miracle will save this company,' 'I'm amazed anyone is still holding shares in this company,' game over,' 'Armageddon,' and confident predictions that the company will soon no longer be a going concern.

'the possibility of open conflict with KSA has to be considered'

OMG

Does that mean a $100 oil price again?
That would certainly solve Iran's economic problems!
If it does happen, I hope there isn't any hand-to-hand combat, because Iran has the second- or third-worst CV outbreak in the world (depending on whether its declared figures are to be believed) and we wouldn't want any of MSB's troops to catch anything - would we?
Allah forbid that the germ might reach the palace!

While Saudi Arabia and Russia dig their heels in on an oil price war, the Trump administration is admonishing them for actions that are harmful to the global economy. In a rare rebuke, the Department of Energy issued a statement that said, "attempts by state actors to manipulate and shock oil markets reinforce the importance of the role of the United States as a reliable energy supplier to partners and allies around the world."

President Trump slammed OPEC plus in a tweet, blaming them for the stock market selloff, the worst since 2008 on Monday, and now is looking to take advantage of what was an ill-advised shock to global markets. U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin even had an emergency meeting with the Russian ambassador in Washington, Anatoly Antonov. He followed up with a statement and emphasized "the importance of orderly energy markets" to the Russian ambassador.

I would expect, based on history, that Trump will not take this assault on the global economy by OPEC and Russia standing down.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-wrath-hit-russia-saudi-170506707.html

Yes, indeed, Genghis - there are plenty of unknown unknowns.
I did quote from an article on the subject of a possible tax on Saudi oil in my post of 15:17.
If I were Trump, I would impose a whopping tax on Saudi oil; Americans would still be able to buy oil cheaply.
When you say,
'The CV makes this the worst time to launch a price war, just as demand is plummeting, and the timing of recovery unknown.'
do you mean it's the worst time for us?
In that case, you mean it's the best time from the mad crown prince's point of view?
According to one report, the reason the Russians gave for not agreeing to additional cuts was that it is impossible to predict how bad CV will get or how badly it will affect the oil price.
They preferred to wait and see.
We know what kind of person MSB is, because Khashoggi found out.
Once MSB has made a decision, that's it; the matter is settled.
He expects the Russians to fall into line and is behaving the way his namesake behaved in the sixth century.
Eventually, someone should stand up to him and explain that if he doesn't respect diplomatic norms, the men in white coats will have to be called.

I forgot to provide the link:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/saudi-arabia-could-be-bankrupt-within-five-years-imf-predicts-a6706821.html

Saudi Arabia could be bankrupt within five years, IMF predicts
Saudi Arabia generates 90 per cent of its income from oil - a commodity which has recently plummeted in value
Adam Leyland |
Friday 23 October 2015 19:39

Saudi Arabia’s cash reserves are in free-fall and the country could have only five years of financial assets remaining due in large part to the fall in oil prices, according to a report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Saudi Arabia currently has $654.5 billion in foreign reserves, but the cash is disappearing quickly.

Because the oil price drop is likely to be large and persistent, the kingdom is expected to join other oil exporters and make substantial budget cuts, Al-Jazeera wrote.
___________________________________

Before some clever Dick points out that the article was published in 2015, I am aware of that and would point out that according to macrotrends, the price of Brent at that time was $47.99.

The writer and the IMF were both wrong: the price of oil has generally been higher since then and that has slowed down the fall in value of SA's foreign reserves, which stand now at $490 bn.
How long could she afford to sell oil at $20mp.b. ?

The price is now back to the low following the successful sidetrack, after the announcement that the find might be of ONLY 25 mmboe.

Now, JOG has been awarded licences for another 100 mmboe, as well as a multiple of its original stake in the 25+ mmboe, yet the market is saying that it is all worthless because, supposedly, oil no longer has any value.

And why?
Because the mad crown prince is practically giving oil away.
What are the chances of his being able to keep that up for long enough to prevent JOG both from farming out its assets and
selling oil at a profit - bearing in mind that while he is trying to bankrupt oil companies, SA itself will be in danger of bankrupting itself.

Trump’s Answer to the Oil Crash Could Be a Tax on Saudi Crude

If Donald Trump wanted to shield U.S. shale from oil’s crash, he could unleash a familiar weapon against rival producers such as Saudi Arabia: tariffs.

The U.S. president’s trade war with China that spawned tit-for-tat levies has shown his administration is willing to break with precedent to combat economic adversaries. Now, with Harold Hamm -- a shale industry titan and Trump confidant -- seeking to file a complaint against the Saudi plan to flood the market, the White House could take action.

The Energy Department on Monday decried “attempts by state actors to manipulate and shock oil markets” as crude crashed by the most since 1991 after Saudi Arabia and Russia pledged to boost output.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-11/trump-s-answer-to-the-oil-crash-could-be-a-tax-on-saudi-crude

Yes, Genghis - I read yesterday that it was JMK who said that, but decided not to point it out.

I already have my reputation for police brutality as a member of the Grammar Police to consider...

'by that you mean jpmorgan have reduced them to below the minimum to report their holdings.. or are u just having a laugh ?'

I have been posting for nearly six years and anyone familiar with my posts knows that I am a serious investor.

According to the RNS, the 'resulting situation' is 5.22 %, whereas previously, it was 'below the minimum threshold.'

Have you noticed that JPM and MS have increased their holdings?

One of Warren Buffett’s best known bits of investment advice is: “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” The fundamentals for TUI still look good, so Hamed El Chiaty might have just struck a bargain deal for himself.
— Patrick Whyte

Egyptian tourism entrepreneur Hamed El Chiaty has bought a 3.4 percent stake in TUI Group.

El Chiaty, who, along with his family, also owns travel conglomerate Travco Group, said he knew and trusted TUI’s management team. He noted that the company’s move from a traditional tour operator to an owner of hotels and cruise ships ensured it could “absorb the temporary burdens” caused by the worldwide grounding of the 737 Max aircraft and the coronavirus outbreak.

El Chiaty is no stranger to TUI having at various times in the past held a small stake in the business. He has also worked closely with the company through Travco.

https://skift.com/2020/03/11/egyptian-tourism-entrepreneur-buys-stake-in-tui/

I managed to stop the VISA advertisement from appearing, by going to the Gumgum website and opting out.
The blue Privacy button is still there, though.
About the real virus: the recovery rate in China is close to 78 percent, with just 11 new deaths.
In a couple of weeks time, the recovery rate should be well into the 90s.
There are new deaths in Greece and Algeria, for the first time.
The main problem in Europe is Italy, followed by Spain and France.

Sorry to digress, but talking of viruses: I now have a blue 'Privacy' icon appearing in the bottom right hand corner of my screen every time I load a new page on LSE.
It doesn't matter what preferences I save - it stays there.
Also, the same Visa advertisement keeps appearing along the bottom of the screen.
It doesn't appear on other websites.
Does anyone else have this problem?

Avian Coronavirus Infectious Bronchitis Virus (IBV) vaccine by MIGAL Research Institute

The MIGAL Research Institute in Israel announced that an Infectious Bronchitis Virus (IBV) vaccine developed to treat avian coronavirus has been modified to treat Covid-19. The vaccine has demonstrated efficacy in pre-clinical trials conducted by the Volcani Institute.

The IBV vaccine was developed after four years of research and has high genetic similarity to the human coronavirus. The institute has genetically modified the vaccine to treat Covid-19 and will be available in the oral form.

The institute is currently exploring potential partners for producing the vaccine in the next eight to ten weeks and obtaining the necessary safety approvals for in-vivo testing.

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/analysis/coronavirus-mers-cov-drugs/

Actually, Genghis, it was Leonid Fedun of Lukoil who said that.
I'm not sure they're bluffing about starting this war, but I'm not sure they will want to prolong it.
The WHO has now declared the CV to be a 'global pandemic.'
I suspect they were afraid of being savaged by the mass media if they didn't do so.
Now the mass media can milk the pandemic for all it's worth.
I'm reminded of a cull of Canada Geese at Hyde Park in the 1990s: the authorities claimed they were too numerous and had to be reduced in number.
Shortly afterwards, there was an outbreak of botulism which devastated the waterfowl there.
If this pandemic turns really nasty and kills millions, the oil price won't need the Saudis to force it down, and the Saudis will be desperately seeking ways to support it.
If, on the other hand, the pandemic peters out in a summer heatwave, the oil price will recover and the Saudis' argument with the Russians will turn out to have been wholly unnecessary.
Sometimes, it's best to wait and see how things develop and that is, in fact, what the Russians suggested to the Saudis on Friday.

Not sure whether the Russian minister was referring to WTI or Brent - presumably, WTI.
That would mean perhaps 45-50 and 50-55 in Brent prices.

The price of Brent jumped suddenly from 37.6 to 39.4 just before 1 a.m. today.
$40 is certainly a psychological barrier now.

Thanks, JB.

“We are not in a price war with anyone... We are competitive. We watch the market and understand that such a situation will help the market to recover. High-cost projects will disappear,” Sorokin said.

The deputy minister sees oil market equilibrium at $45-55 per barrel, which is comfortable for producers and low enough for the global economy to recover from the coronavirus impact.

Provided there are no further shocks, Sorokin said he saw prices rising to $40-45 per barrel in the second half of this year and to $45-50 - in 2021.

Latest news:
'Bundesliga matches to be played without spectators'

I hear that the next measure will be
'Bundesliga matches to be played without players'
and
'Poker tournaments to be played without cards'