Member Info for LONGWAIT

Situated 120 miles north-east of Aberdeen, the GBA is host to discovered resources “in excess” of 200mln barrels of oil equivalent.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/916662/jersey-oil-and-gas-bolsters-expertise-as-it-eyes-progress-for-gba-projects-916662.html

Shall we contact Ashcroft, who has been rubbishing HUR in his last three articles about it, and complain that he's exaggerating?

If you're right, DC, then the bonds, if purchased in the market, would offer a 20 percent coupon yield.

I was going to say something similar, Daltry.

You mean that HUR could redeem bonds early unilaterally?

Apparently those posters who only weeks ago were urging HUR to buy its own shares may have missed this point, but even more the point that HUR needs to conserve cash to redeem all the bonds if necessary.

I made my first investment in HUR in the summer of 2014, DW, and have added so much since then that it almost frightens me when I think about it.
What I am curious about is how I and others could think it offered good value at 40p then, but people were saying it was trash recently at 10p.
Maybe it has something to do with the fact that the oil price was about $100 then.
I do recall being insulted by one poster who called me a 'fool' when I warned that the price could halve again from 20p to 10p, which did happen.
Here we are four years later, and it has happened again.
We now need a stronger oil price for many reasons: to help the share price, to be in a position to convert the bonds or redeem them with profits earned, and to be sure of being able to continue drilling.
If Lincoln Crestal could still go ahead, that would obviously help prospects.

I don't think it's within the terms of the placing to convert the bonds to shares if the SP is below $0.52 at the redemption date, Dogwalker.

I don't think you've taken into account the repayment of the bonds in the event that HUR's SP fails to reach about 40p during the next couple of years, Dogwalker.

As I said a couple of days ago, I thought HUR's overall break-even price was lower than the $30 cited by one poster.
As for the question about how HUR can manage with an oil price of $21, I would ask how Putin, MBS, Trump, and their respective economies, will survive, and Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Nigeria are going to avoid revolutions unless the price recovers.
I would also mention the fact that the EIA recently forecast Brent at $79 by 2025.
The world population is, unfortunately for the world, still growing, in spite of the mass media's best efforts to convince us that the population and oil prices are in terminal decline.
Long-term demand for oil is increasing, long-term supply is decreasing, and they haven't yet devised a jumbo battery to power jumbo jets.

A British Petroleum-led project in Azerbaijan will have to cut production in May for the first time as Azerbaijan will need to take drastic measures to meet its new quota under the OPEC production cut deal, three sources told Reuters on Thursday.

This is rare for Big Oil, who is typically exempt from such production restrictions because countries need these big oil players in their backyards to develop oil resources. Big Oil has never seen a mandatory production cut in Azerbaijan.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/In-Rare-Development-Oil-Majors-Are-Forced-To-Cut-Output-Under-OPEC-Deal.html

Sorry.

I realised as soon as I pressed 'post message,' that I was referring to the wrong company.

But it would work out well for JOG too, as they are also a few years away from production.
Whenever I read comments about the expected decline in the oil price, as oil is replaced by other fuels, I think of these projections that point to ever-higher oil prices!
It isn't just that oil will become rarer, but also that the world population is - regrettably - increasing, emerging markets need more oil, and oil exploration has declined dramatically.

'The EIA forecasts that, by 2025, a barrel of Brent crude oil's average price will rise to $79/b ...
By 2030, world demand will drive oil prices to $98/b. By 2040, prices will be $146/b, again quoted in 2019 dollars. By then, the cheap oil sources will have been exhausted, making it more expensive to extract oil. By 2050, oil prices will be $214/b, according to Table 1 of the EIA's Annual Energy Outlook.'

According to Alan Linn, production from Barryroe should start in late 2022 or early 2023.
If Brent is about $79 in late 2024, rising to nearly $100 over the next five years, PVR should do very well.

By 'authoritarian,' Double, I meant that they don't mow people down, as in Tiananmen Square, or fabricate the numbers dying from Corona.
Taking a look at the figures, percentage recovery rates include:

Germany 68, Switzerland 70, South Korea 78, Denmark 67, Australia 75, New Zealand 73, Spain 42.

Yes, MakinHay, I didn't share your confidence even though last time HUR dipped below 10p, it had rebounded to 15.5p (which may have influenced your decision) simply because, as I said, the Market is irrational.

Well, Double, my source is merely the official figures.
No-one, it seems, believes the overall Chinese figures, but then no-one now, it seems, is contradicting the latest
Chinese figures for daily fatalities and active cases - which indicate that people have stopped dying of Corona and the number of active cases is about 950.
You can look at figures from South Korea, Denmark, Germany, Switzerland and Austria, none of which has authoritarian governments.
I haven't heard of anyone questioning their figures.
Many people are still dying in Spain and Italy, but the numbers are showing signs of peaking and reversing

Don't be surprised if a few years from now, after oil has got back to $60, it spikes to $100 when a major war breaks out in the Middle East.

The question I would like to ask is: if no-one needs oil and it's worthless - actually worth less than zero - why has the price of June WTI trebled from its low on fears of conflict between America and Iran?

I disagree, MakinHay.

First of all, the market isn't rational.
We had May WTI at minus $40, then June WTI went from $6 to $13 in 30 minutes, apparently because it seemed there would be war between America and Iran.
It's now $18.
Secondly, the Corona Virus is in retreat.
In China, there are fewer than 1,000 cases left and in South Korea, it's heading for 2,000.
Recovery rates in some countries, including Austria, Germany and Denmark, are outstanding.
I read an article today suggested we follow China's example and concentrate on testing large numbers of people instead of treating everyone as a suspect, so to speak.
Thirdly, governments are not going to be able to keep the restrictions in place for much longer, because people will have had enough of them if they last much longer.
Fourthly, so many countries are facing serious consequences if the oil price stays this low - and also Trump, MBS and Putin.

Yes, indeed, PTS, although the threshold was passed six days ago and we don't know how long it took GS to accumulate its stake.

I would point out that TLW shares were just above 7p five weeks ago and are now 25p.

Je me suis trompé!

I stand (or sit) corrected.

It just goes to show how long it is since I last played poker...

I think a compromise is possible, Double, and you could play cards (raising stakes through masks) while sitting two meters away from one another.
As I recall, poker players like to keep a safe distance from each other anyway, so as to safeguard their cards' faces.
As I said, the Israelis are re-introducing prayer on similar terms in houses of prayer, presumably including churches, although without anyone being raised (except possibly Lazarus).
Regulations are being relaxed in several European countries and it can't be long before France joins them.
The UK, as ever, is likely to be last.

'So whoever buys into Barryroe gets the benefit of half the costs to date which is worth having.'

Are you assuming, Manyana, that the deal will be 50-50?
If so, I think you're possibly being over-optimistic.
I wouldn't complain about a 25-75 deal, but 50-50 would be tremendous.

Yes, Double, I do agree with you except that I would make two points.

First, terrorism against airlines started more than 30 years before 9/11, which is why air travel was already rather tedious (although 9/11 proved it to be insufficiency so) before that atrocity was committed.
You could say that from around 1969, air travel was never the same again.
Secondly, I am not against people being required to wear masks or limit close contact with others, until the epidemic is over, but I can't see people accepting such practices till the end of time.
I noticed that Angela Merkel is warning of a second wave of infections, some are warning of a winter resurgence, and others are speculating about the next Corona from China.
Instead of permanently changing our way of life, it might be more profitable to put pressure on the Chinese to make long-term changes to their eating habits.