Member Info for LONGWAIT

Ramaphosa: SA and the world we live in will never be the same

https://www.moneyweb.co.za/news/south-africa/ramaphosa-sa-and-the-world-we-live-in-will-never-be-the-same/

Oil Prices Won't Be Negative Forever. But the Oil Industry Will Never Be The Same

https://time.com/5824263/coronavirus-negative-oil-prices-consolidation/

After COVID-19, Taiwan will have to navigate a world that will never be the same

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2020/04/20/after-covid-19-taiwan-will-have-to-navigate-a-world-that-will-never-be-the-same/

After the coronavirus, Australia and the world can never be the same again

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/28/after-the-coronavirus-australia-and-the-world-can-never-be-the-same-again

Sports, like the rest of life, will never be the same again

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/03/sports/sports-like-rest-life-will-never-be-same-again/

I remember the same cliché, after 9/11, yet what happened on that day has never happened since.
The use of this cliché is, in my opinion, a measure of the inflated importance people today, led by the dominant mass media, attach to themselves, and to their place in 'history.'
Everything becomes 'momentous' and history-changing.
In reality, the pandemic, which appears to be peaking, has killed 0.002 percent of the world's population.
The Black Death wiped out a third of Europe's population, including more than two-thirds of the population of Florence.
I doubt whether people then predicted the world would never be the same again.

I can't remember who it was, oldblue, but the vultures circle whenever they think they see a carcass.
It's enough for me that ilikesalmon has stopped ridiculing the company and Robert Trice and instead posted a harmless comment that HUR should have agreed to a takeover by a company I've never heard of.
But then he has had all his recent comments plus the one from 19 March last year removed.
Another clairvoyant poster predicted that PMO would open at 10p on Monday.
It's 24p now.
Have you noticed any oil shares making new lows since WTI went negative - I mean, since the media told us that the world will never be the same again - ?
Goldman Sachs, while doing their best to put us off investing in oil companies, by predicting low oil prices, has just taken a stake in TLW.
It was announced today.

It's funny, DU: I was wondering where you are had got to shortly before you posted your article.
It's certainly a very different explanation from the one generally being given, namely that people were being paid to take oil away because the producers had nowhere to store it.
If it's true, then it means rather more people seem to think oil is absurdly undervalued than the general media reporting would have you believe.

It's in the nature of all financial markets to overshoot in both directions, Pluginbaby, so the answer to your question is YES.
If you remember, when oil prices were in the 20s four years ago (with Brent at $27.67), Standard Chartered were predicting $10.
That was at the BOTTOM.
Goldman Sachs didn't finally realise that the bottom had been reached until long afterwards and then predicted higher prices just in time for a big correction.
(Krakenoil: please note.)
When Brent was peaking in 2008, at $147, 'experts' were predicting $200.
It never changes.
One thing I can tell you is that if prices stay this low long enough, MBS and Putin will be joining the US shalers.
America, Russia and OPEC will have to act to stabilise the situation and more countries will ease the lockdowns to help bring this madness to an end.

We're not in the endgame yet, Double.
Here is a brief comparison of company break-even prices per barrel for balancing the budget:
Saudi Arabia $80, Russia $40, HUR $30 (according to one poster, although I thought it was lower).
Obviously, how long each company could last with extremely low prices is another matter.
However, PVR raised enough cash to last another year just two weeks ago, and they are still some way away from even starting production.
It does seem that companies whose share prices are being punished the most now are the ones that are actually producing oil.

I would point out that PVR managed to raise enough cash to last for another year just two weeks ago, in the midst of this crisis, although admittedly before WTI prices went negative.
Some people are looking further ahead than the eye-catching headlines.
It was in 2001 that I finally lost all respect for the mass media when they recited the mantra, 'The world will never be the same again.'
They are not reporting events so much as sensationalising them so as to create excitement or fear.
OPEC may bring forward the oil price cuts, and then make more.
More and more countries will ease restrictions.
World populations are growing and oil will eventually be in short supply.
What's happening now is an example of the irrationality of humanity.
The same media could happily create headlines about oil possibly reaching $200 in a few years' time.
They make money either way.

'Plus of course oil has NEVER been in negative territory like now. The 'new normal' won't be the old one, that's for sure.'

A few minutes ago, WTI was trading at double the price it had been trading at just thirty minutes earlier (up from $6.50 to $13.00).

It seems that the days of long-term investors are over.
Everyone will have to become a trader in order to survive.

I would like now to respond to serious comments by two serious investors - Sprucegoose2 and Makinhay.
I wish I could share your confidence, Makinhay, but moments ago, Brent was $19.50 and WTI was $6.50.
As I posted at the time, it was reported that the real reason the Russians wouldn't agree to cuts in the first place was that it was possible that the cuts would be overwhelmed by the impact of the pandemic, and they have been proven right.
MBS's irrational reaction - to threaten to flood the market with oil priced at about $20 looks all the more absurd now that it's been trading as low as minus $40.
He may be pleased about that happening in the USA, but if it happens to SA, where he needs plus $80 to balance his budget, then it won't be just the American oil producers who will be out of a job.
Nevertheless, I would make further cuts, and wouldn't be surprised if they did.
Some experts have been questioning whether the reaction to the epidemic - aside from taking precautions - has been justified. Some have said it may not even last for more than a few months.
What worries me is when I hear talk of a second wave of infections next winter, or that we will have to change the way we live in future.
The people who need to make permanent changes to their lifestyles are the people who seem to think they can't manage to get three square meals a day (and I personally am on two per day because of a chronic illness) without including delicacies such as bat soup.
SG2 isn't the only poster to raise the possibility of a temporary halt in production.
I wonder whether, if Brent goes below $17, HUR can come to an arrangement with BP about that - assuming, that is, that BP have no one to sell the oil to (and if they have, what the hell is the oil going to be used for - secret flights abroad?).

I refer you to this poster's post of 19 Mar 2019 09:53, which makes it clear that his ramping today is actually a sarcastic ridicule of investors in this company.

I personally find such behaviour despicable and I think all other genuine investors share my sentiment.

To make a sarcastic comment about the CEO of HUR is especially despicable, as Robert Trice is highly regarded for his expertise and honesty.
Frankly, I don't see any future for your forum if you allow it to be infested with posters like ilikesalmon.

(sent to the administrators moments ago)

Just in case anyone thinks ilikesalmon means what he says when he writes:

'21 Apr 2020 16:07

Less talk, more buy buy buy. Buy Low sell high. Don't believe the negative hype. this is worth 2 billion and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. No idea how the price is so low, not with such a great engineer at the helm looking after us all.'

and

'Today 15:59
buy buy buy like crazy. Put your mortgage in it. It's worth a billion this company, it's going to be a £ in no time, I give it 3 weeks.'

please note that he wrote previously:

'19 Mar 2019 09:53

while I agree with this 100%. No one on this board likes to hear it, they will jump down your throat. Everyone here thinks the business should be worth 1 or 2 billion with no revenue.'

He questioned whether the company was worth a billion when it had no revenue; it has produced revenue for 10 months, and now he has returned to mock investors, the share price and Robert Trice.

I'm writing this before reporting ilikesalmon to the administrators and requesting that they remove him.
We've had TSD and turnturnturn coming here and taunting investors, and IMHO ilikesalmon is a similar kind of low life.
I did have an exchange with Double a year ago or two ago (or possibly both) in which I said that I was confident about HUR provided there wouldn't be a general stock market crash or oil price crash and he agreed with me.
More recently, I was thinking that HUR were on course to produce 40 kbopd in 2022, and thought to myself: what are the chances of the dreaded disasters happening in the meantime?'
My answer was that a general market crash was a distinct possibility and that a recession could cause a fall in the oil price, but I never imagined a pandemic like this or negative oil prices.
Obviously, I am now feeling rather foolish as the double (no pun intended) crash has happened and I'm still invested.
I think it is incredibly mean of people like ilikesalmon to come here and jeer genuine investors, and despicable to ridicule Dr Trice, whose only mistake has been not hedging - a mistake that probably most companies have made.
If it hadn't been for some Chinese people not being able to live a life without bat soup, we wouldn't be going around wearing masks, there wouldn't be a recession, tens of thousands of people wouldn't have died, HUR's share price would have recovered, HUR would be going from strength to strength, and ilikesalmon - like the vultures - would merely be biding his time waiting for an opportunity like this.

I agree with you about RG, JA, but JOG say they have enough cash to last until the end of next year, and presumably they could find a way of making it last into 2022, if necessary.
Even if they haven't concluded a deal by then, the market could by then have improved considerably and raising cash might not be a problem.
That is, provided we haven't got Son of Corona by then.

I agree with you about RG, JA, but JOG say they have enough cash to last until the end of next year, and presumably they could find a way of making it last into 2022, if necessary.
Even if they haven't concluded a deal by then, the market may by then have improved considerably and raising cash might na problem.
That is, provided we haven't got Son of Corona by then.

A topsy-turvy market that has oil prices for October delivery at $31 a barrel has oil firms anxious to sock away millions of barrels now to sell at a profit later.

https://www.marketscreener.com/MCGRATH-RENTCORP-10022/news/A-hunt-for-any-storage-space-turns-urgent-as-oil-glut-grows-30448873/?countview=0

Thanks, DelBoi.
I know, PS - and I didn't mean to imply that you ever subscribed to the 'conjob' explanations.

As you may have noticed, PS, WTI was trading at minus $40 today.
Do you think SpotOn's prospective partners broke off talks when they heard the news?
If everyone takes your position, there is going to be a fantastic spike when the pandemic ends and stored oil has been used up.
I agree with hereandnow: there is nothing 'speculative' about SpotOn's investment.
It is rather a sign that they are not going to turn out like APEC.
They wouldn't have got involved unless they were confident that they will be able to secure a farm-in to Barryroe.
Frankly, all the 'Conjob' comments about SpotOn were rubbish.
Even APEC's attempt wasn't a 'conjob'.
When I think back over all the posts I've read here, I've read that TOR was a crook, that there isn't recoverable oil in Barryroe, that APEC were trying to get 50 percent of it for nothing, that Alan Linn is a conman, that SpotOn is a conjob, and that there were no negotiations with anyone (until SpotOn's identity was revealed).
Complete nonsense.

Is that a joke about PMO opening at 10p tomorrow?

By the way, at 19:13, you wrote: 'Minus 2.79 down minus 118 percent'

WTI's going negative appears not to have had much impact on American oil companies, Red.

The NYSE is still open!

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for May delivery cratered by as much as 316 percent to -$39.55 a barrel.
“With demand still dead and OPEC+ cuts not hitting fast enough, the market looks like it has no bottom.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-crashes-lowest-level-since-113552445.html

Well, if prices can go negative, then by definition they have no bottom.
I wonder what view spread-betting firms take of negative prices.
It should certainly make anyone thinking of going long of oil think twice.

I'm having to keep closing my browser in order to be able to post any comments here.
Livecharts is now quoting WTI at $0.01.
I don't know whether the chart has the ability to g8 negative.
Point taken, themari, but we are not going to be able to defeat nature.
We were made to live in the natural world, not in boxes.

There have been demonstrations in Brazil against the restrictions and the President has called for an easing of them.
In Israel, where the disease has been spread in synagogues, they are nevertheless planning to let people pray again - provided they keep away from other worshippers.

I can't see most countries keeping the lockdowns going for much longer.

More and more people are arguing that the lockdowns are actually doing more harm than good.

The Corona pandemic is scandalous and governments should never have been put in such a difficult position, but we seem to have lost a sense of proportion: death cannot be avoided indefinitely and it doesn't make sense to close the world down when the risk to healthy people is quite low.

Mind you, I don't miss hearing the aeroplanes here.