Member Info for LONGWAIT

I suppose next we'll be reading that the HUR SP has gone negative and the MMs are offering to pay us to take shares.

That would make a nice change.

I said that if the OP went to $10 there could be civil wars or revolutions in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Venezuela, but if the price goes to minus $20, that would be very interesting.

Remember, those countries are dependent on oil for economic survival and the chaos that would ensue would put Corona in the shade.
Frankly, with people starving, it's going to be difficult for governments to enforce regulations on compulsory wearing of face masks and doubtful whether anyone would even be left to enforce them.

It is an astounding fact that a purchase at the bottom, at 425p, would yield a 20 percent dividend.
Of course, had I made the same point at the time, someone would have pointed out that such a high yield is too good to be true, as it usually is, and that the final dividend of 25p would be unlikely to be paid in these market conditions, but it has!

Assuming it is paid again next time, that would yield 10.9 percent at the present market price.

By the way, finding a stock at a 64 percent discount to net cash (80 percent at the bottom) is also 'too good to be true'.

You weren't hallucinating, JS.

There may have been a post along those lines from turnturnturn, but it seems that his account has been deleted, even though I never reported him.

Maybe the administrators decided that he was the reincarnation of TSD, who had previously been removed.

Generally today, I have been unable to load this page.
I usually get 'lse.co.uk is not responding' or 'lse.co.uk is not responding due to a long-running script' or the page does not complete loading (the bottom being blank) or the screen goes blank.

Has anyone else been having similar problems?

I've finally sent turnturnturn to join bartlebobton in the filter bin.

TTT's posts are along the lines of 'The share price is sure to collapse...as an investor, I'm nervous...the company is overvalued...take care, everyone'

I feel there is something both disingenuous and insidious about them, claiming that he is a committed shareholder while consistently predicting lower prices, and doing everything possible to dampen LTH's spirits while wishing them good luck.

In addition, he always cites the WTI price, presumably knowing that it's far lower (currently less than half of) than Brent.

'After the SARS outbreak it took a good 6-8 months for bookings to return to pre-SARS level.'

SARS didn't stop TUI from having a healthy share price during the epidemic.

Several countries have started ending or may soon start to end their lockdowns soon, including: China, South Korea, Israel, Germany, Italy, Austria, Australia, New Zealand and Brazil.

I can't see the present situation, with little economic activity and collapsed oil prices, lasting for years, and Alan Linn did say he anticipates oil being produced in two and a half to three years' time.

As I have been saying here repeatedly for the last few months, I believe RG has always sold in lots of 10,000 shares.
He used to sell about three lots per day, usually in the morning.
Recently, he has been selling fewer lots, and less often.
Today, there has been one sale of 10,000 shares at 09:52.

Now, the Trump administration has changed its tune and is considering discouraging U.S. oil producers to curb their own oil extraction. “The Trump administration is contemplating paying oil companies to leave their product in the ground, a measure that could help boost the struggling industry while the market has been crushed by an oversupply of crude,” The Hill reported this week. “According to reporting from multiple outlets, the Department of Energy (DOE) is drafting a plan that would pay companies to leave as much as 365 million barrels untapped by considering it part of the nation’s emergency stockpile.”

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Would-Trump-Actually-Pay-Oil-Producers-Not-To-Pump.html

For 'discouraging,' read 'encouraging.'

'I’ve identified what projects the SpotOn energy management have previously been involved with. One in particular was one of the largest North Sea projects of recent times.'

Some of us would appreciate it if you did share the fruits of your research, Delboi.

If by 'DM' you mean 'SM', it seems only Premium members can send private messages.

Ranger4 is well-known for spreading gloom here.
Maybe he should let Alan Linn and SpotOn know about this, as obviously he thinks he is better-informed than they are.

Yes, General Levy.

Oil prices have fallen to multi-decade lows as demand craters. But oil stocks are soaring as low-information investors buy the dip.
We are witnessing the greatest disconnect between equity prices and economic fundamentals in recent memory. And nowhere is that more evident than in the energy market where investors are pouring into oil stocks at the worst time ever.
Ill-informed investors are rushing to “buy the dip.” But they are trying to catch a falling knife. And it won’t end well.

https://www.ccn.com/oil-craters-but-energy-stocks-soar-as-silly-millennials-buy-the-dip/

I suppose the House of Sa'ud is ill-informed; maybe someone should tell it what is going on.
I suppose that according to CCN, buying RRE at £23 per share was a good idea, but buying at £4.22 a terrible idea.

The story-telling is preceded by Boccaccio’s account of the effect of the plague on everyday life in Florence. Remember that in 1348, Florence was the New York of the world: it was way ahead of everyone else in art, architecture, textiles and banking. Boccaccio himself was the son of a banker and when young spent what he later called “six wasted years” learning the trade in his father’s Naples office. He’d always wanted to be a writer.

Boccaccio says he was present during the plague in Florence, which killed at least two thirds of the city’s 100,000 inhabitants. The disease was so virulent, he says, that a pig which sniffed an infected rag would drop down dead immediately.

It seems that many inhabitants practised lockdown:

“Some people were of the opinion that a sober and abstemious life considerably reduced the risk of infection. They therefore formed themselves into groups and lived in isolation from everyone else.”

https://www.idler.co.uk/article/social-distancing-during-the-plague-in-florence/

It's interesting that you should mention Belgium, because I noticed it some time ago and when the daily death total breached 400 two days ago, I was horrified and yet the media appear not to have noticed.
Per capita deaths in Belgium are almost exactly four times those in America.
I forgot to include Germany in my list.
It is remarkable that the countries doing best in Europe are Germanic rather than Latin: Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Denmark.
One of the countries in the forefront of the search for a vaccine, Israel, has been taking the outbreak remarkably seriously, even though deaths per capita in the UK are 12 times the number in Israel.
I'm not sure where the UK will end up, but it may not have peaked yet and Spain, which the Government there said had peaked, may be rising again.
It looks as though Italy really has peaked.
It looks as though some countries are starting to question whether the 'lockdowns' can be sustained for much longer because of the economic cost.

'You should maintain social distance at all times, but everyone can gather closely on bridges to clap once a week.'

Definitely in the style of Woody Allen, who in an extract from a mock self-help book advised young people to 'try not to go bald'.

We should certainly all try not to catch the virus!

The authorities do keep changing their positions.
For example, France's daily deaths figures suddenly jumped about fourfold when they started including deaths from nursing homes.
China's total figure jumped by fifty percent when it decided staff may have been too busy to report deaths.
New York suddenly added 3,700 people presumed to have died from the virus even though they had not tested positive.
The good news is that there are only 1,058 cases left in China (according to the authorities) and fewer than 2,500 in South Korea, and other countries in which the total number of recoveries outnumbers total active cases are: Switzerland, Austria (by a big margin), Denmark, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, Iceland and New Zealand .
I expect other countries to join them in the next few months.

I assume you were using 'sure' sarcastically, Double.
I learnt many years ago that most scams came from Russia and Nigeria, and remember a man who had what sounded like a Nigerian accent claiming on the phone to be from a British Bank, giving me my name and address and asking aggressively for my date of birth.
I also remember getting an email asking me to log in to my account with the same bank, 'for security reasons', but the scammers couldn't even spell the name of the bank correctly and the email address had .com instead of .co.uk.
The email came from an address with Nigeria's time zone.
I didn't quote the article in order to elicit sympathy for Nigeria, which has the worst record of numbers of representatives claiming diplomatic immunity when caught committing offences.
It just so happens that the article was about Nigeria.
Just as well it wasn't about Iran!

I agree with Theinvester, EC, about America, but agree with you about Germany, which has managed remarkably well.
There are only 1,058 cases left in China (according to the authorities) and fewer than 2,500 in South Korea
Other countries in which the total number of recoveries outnumbers total active cases are: Switzerland, Austria (by a big margin), Denmark, Australia, Malaysia, Thailand, Iceland and New Zealand .
I expect the number to grow in the next few months.

The real oil market is killing Nigeria.
One of the country’s benchmark grades, Bonny Light, fell to about $12 or $13 a barrel this week, according to traders monitoring the West African market.
The country sells its barrels at premiums or -- more recently -- discounts to Dated Brent, a physical North Sea crude price that’s published by S&P Global Platts. Dated Brent was at about $18.10 a barrel on Wednesday, and Bonny Light was $5.70 less than that, according to traders. That works out at about $12.40.
When headline oil futures were around $22 a barrel last month, Mele Kyari, the boss of the state oil company, said that Nigeria would be “out of business” at such levels, according to a local media report.
The prices are well below the cost of producing oil in Nigeria -- about $22 a barrel, and lower still than the the nation’s fiscal breakeven, assessed by Fitch Ratings about $133 a barrel. Nigeria depends on crude sales for half of government revenues and 90% of foreign exchange earnings.
The country sells its barrels at premiums or -- more recently -- discounts to Dated Brent, a physical North Sea crude price that’s published by S&P Global Platts. Dated Brent was at about $18.10 a barrel on Wednesday, and Bonny Light was $5.70 less than that, according to traders. That works out at about $12.40.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-17/nigeria-s-banner-oil-hits-12-millions-of-barrels-remain-unsold

According to Bloomberg, Brent for June Delivery is $18, but according to CNBC, it's $28.
Why are Nigeria selling oil at a loss?
Wouldn't it make more sense to stop selling?
“We are working assiduously to guarantee a steady market for our crude in the short and long term.”
What's the point of guaranteeing a steady loss and helping one's economy go bust?

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Saudi-Energy-Minister-Global-Oil-Cuts-Could-Reach-20-Million-Bpd.html

Crude oil price forecast: what to expect from the global oil market in 2020 and beyond
Alexandra Pankratyeva 14:45, 5 December 2019

On Tuesday, December 3, 2019 Brent crude traded at $60.78, while US WTI stood at $56.06.
The United States will drive the global crude oil supply growth
According to the McKinsey & Company's Global Supply and Demand Outlook, if OPEC+ keeps control over production levels and crude oil demand growth stays healthy, we can expect crude oil prices to hover in the range of $60-$70 in 2020.
The World Bank also builds a very positive crude oil price forecast graph, anticipating that all three major benchmarks, including WTI, Brent, and Dubai Crude continue to move up after 2020 to reach over $100 per barrel on average by 2025.

https://capital.com/crude-oil-price-forecast