Member Info for LONGWAIT

'Current production rates are not meaningful - we know there is plenty of oil and fractures will produce at very high initial rates.'

That has to be the post of the week.
After all the ( some supposedly-expert) opinion that fractured basement reservoirs don't work, that the oil wasn't there, that even if it was, it wouldn't be possible to extract it, that even if it could be extracted, it wouldn't last six months, that even if it lasted six months, the production rate could not be increased because of water cuts and because FB was unproven, we now hear that to produce at 20,000 bopd is actually quite normal.

'I would suggest we are one of the only oilers making production profit at this time. GL all LTH'

HUR and RRE have similar production costs to UKOG's and both RRE and PMO have substantial hedging at much higher prices than the present one.

No sign of barnyards yet today.

Maybe he's back in the barn - or the yard.

Thanks, Coldjoe.
I sometimes think about such articles and predictions, especially because at the time they are treated with such respect, but afterwards forgotten.
The wooden spoon goes to Standard Chartered for predicting $10 shortly before the price bottomed at $28.67.

'I initially bought into ithaca at 19.54p, January 2016 during the previous downturn ... and felt robbed with Deleks offer of $1.95 share offer'

I would be interested to know, OM, whether at the time, posters were telling you that you were mad, that the price would be sub-10p within a week, that the company would go bust, etc.

It has been reported that some European countries have started easing the lockdown.
Some posters have expressed fears to the Grammar Police about being locked up when the lockdown is finally reversed.
We can assure all posters - with some notable exceptions, including ttt and TSD (if he returns or if it transpires that he really is ttt), that it is not the Grammar Police's policy to lock up posters except for especially egregious grammatical misdemeanours.

Wuhan has returned to something like normal, Spain has started to end its 'lockdown', it seems that the number of daily fatalities in Italy too may have peaked, and the number of active cases in South Korea is down to 2,750, with only 225 dead so far.
Most recorded cases in Germany have recovered.
Some scientists think the Corona Virus outbreak cannot last more than a few months anywhere.
I expect more countries to report soon that they think the epidemic has peaked.

China has been stockpiling oil for years. Low prices give it reason to buy more

Hong Kong (CNN Business) — Oil is cheaper right now than it has been in years. That's great news for China — the world's second largest consumer of oil and its biggest importer — which has been building up huge reserves and needs energy to restart its economy.
... it's still "clearly good timing" for the world's largest importer of crude to step in and snap up whatever it can, according to Dennis Ip, head of China and Hong Kong energy research at Daiwa Capital Markets.
Stocking up on foreign oil

Hoarding inexpensive oil is critical for China, which has been working for years to bolster its emergency stockpile of oil reserves.
As the country's economy grows, China has become increasingly reliant on foreign oil. Last year, it imported 72% of the crude oil it used, the highest proportion on record, according to CNPC Economics and Technology Institute, the research arm of a major state-owned energy conglomerate in China.
Even government researchers in China have pointed out the fortuitous timing of last month's crash.
The country needs to "seize the opportunity of super-low oil prices" and expand its strategic oil reserve before prices rise again, according to an article published in state media last month by Wang Li, a researcher for the Ministry of Commerce.
But the reserve may not be the only reason China wants more oil right now. As the country emerges from the worst of the coronavirus pandemic and tries to restart its economy, it is going to need more oil. Factories are starting to open up again, and cars are returning to the roadways as lockdowns are lifted.
Domestic refineries are also reopening along with the rest of the coronavirus-stricken economy, meaning that they can now process foreign crude again, said Yan Chong Yaw, director of oil research and forecasts in Asia at Refinitiv.
In his article last month, Wang, the Ministry of Commerce researcher, noted that barrels trading below $30 are "abnormal" and unlikely to last long.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/08/business/oil-prices-china-imports/index.html

I agree with all the comments about the shares being cheap, but I was surprised by the predictions for the share price during the holiday.
I had a feeling the oil production cuts would end in an anti-climax, but what I didn't anticipate was that the Saudis would continue selling oil at a discount to Asian countries:

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Falls-As-Saudi-Arabia-Launches-New-Price-War-With-Record-Discounts.html

Yes, Cebo.
It's typical of today's bad journalistic practice of using a misleading headline which does not accurately summarise the content of the article.
Anyone who reads the article will realise that all goes well, whereas anyone just reading the headline (as some people seem to do) will think that HUR has become a water producer.

HUR have started developing their Lancaster asset without a farminee.
They are producing 20,000 bopd.
If the oil price recovered further and PVR were producing at that rate, they would be earning more than their current market capitalisation in a single year, even with just a 25 percent interest.

'...don't rush the chef to serve the banquet...'

It's been an inordinately protracted hors d'oeuvre, n'est-ce pas, Mario?

'The GWA JV has now agreed a new cost allocation where the JV will build out the equipment and materials required to tie back a single well from the GWA to the Aoka Mizu FPSO on a 50:50 basis..'

Does that mean they have to go looking for another Lincoln Crestal, or would they just try somewhere nearby?
It seems farcical.
What if the same thing happens again?

'Consequently, the company no longer plans to drill any additional horizontal producers on the GWA in 2020 and an option being considered is drilling a third horizontal producing well in Lancaster. First oil from this well, if drilled, would be expected in Q122. '

Does that mean no increase in production for nearly two years?

According to the Times article, Fjelland put SpotOn together a year ago.
It is possible that he was a tea boy at Schlumberger for 12 years, but according to Linkedin, he has had six other jobs during the last 28 years, which suggests strongly that at the very least he progressed to making coffee.

I can give you some idea of what he was doing 19 years ago:

Published on 20.07.2001

PathFinder contract of 400 million

PathFinder Energy Services AS pulled the longest straw in the battle for well logging and directional drilling for Philips. The contact value must be between DKK 300 and 400 million.
This is the largest contract for PathFinder on a world wide basis, says a brilliantly satisfied Ståle Fjelland. He is the head of PathFinder Energy

https://sysla.no/jobb/a/MRnWrR/pathfinder-kontrakt-pa-400-millioner

As I've pointed out before, Daltry, Goldman Sachs have a history of facing the wrong way on the oil price and then facing the other way just as oil itself is about to change direction yet again.
I agree with Cebo's implied comment that they have no more idea about future price movements than we do.

Thanks, EAS10.
I don't know whether you have read the Times article to which JS provided a link, but it has some biographical information on Ståle Fjelland, who worked for Schlumberger from 1980 to about 1992.
I agree with the comments that it is frustrating not knowing anything about the history of SpotOn Energy and it 'looks' as though it hasn't any experience of doing what it says it does.
However, the facts that its last two CEOs are former Schlumberger and BP employees respectively and that it has already invested in PVR, as agreed, surely give one reason to think that it is perfectly legitimate.
We shall know in about five weeks' time whether SpotOn has fulfilled its commitment to make a further subscription for shares and we should know soon the identity of the members of its consortium.
I see every reason to remain sceptical until then but reserve judgment until details have been disclosed.

Your post is defamatory, ranger4.

You're implying that when TOR tried to farm out Barryroe, he 'knew' it couldn't be developed, you call APEC confidence tricksters, and accuse Alan Linn of 'luring' investors, again implying that he is behaving dishonestly.

Are you saying that the thousands of barrels of oil per day that flowed from Barryroe were faked?

'I complained the wine was corked, but the priest wouldn't go and get something better...'

Thank goodness you didn't complain about the flavour of the wafers!

Sorry to add to today's digressions (or is it 'transgressions'?), but it looks as though the epidemic has peaked in Spain, one of the worst-affected countries.

'From Monday, workers in sectors such as construction and manufacturing will be allowed to return to work, though the government extended restrictions on movement across Spain's land borders with France and Portugal for another two weeks.
Online Easter service
The lockdown has caused major disruption to the Catholic country's renowned Easter celebrations, forcing clergy and worshippers to devise creative ways to participate.'

https://www.france24.com/en/20200411-spain-to-ease-coronavirus-lockdown-as-rates-of-infections-and-deaths-slow

Virtual Communion?

Three points.
If APEC were, as you imply, con-men, then what have they actually gained from the whole exercise of pretending to be entering into a contract with PVR?
Unlike SpotOn, APEC's money never arrived.
So far, SpotOn has been spot-on.
As for Pageant: assuming it is so obvious that SpotOn is a CONJOB that you can see it, they must also be able to see it.
What, then, would be the point of investing a further £600,000 and how could Pageant possibly imagine that their existing holding would thereby be protected by a CONJOB?