Member Info for LONGWAIT

I don't know what you mean, John.

I didn't even mention Trump's character.

In which case, Shedful, this must be a buying opportunity.

Not long ago, The Saudis were allegedly trying to ruin America's oil industry by keeping the price down when America wanted it to rise.

Now, America wants low prices when Saudi Arabia wants high prices.

Thanks, Muz and Jez.

If something like that happens, then there is still everything to play for, albeit from a bombed - out share price.

If so, what would SOU do with the proceeds?

More drilling?

I do remember reading a post here by a poster who was interested in both companies.

He said he liked the look of HUR, but thought that SOU might have more potential.

It certainly has more potential to disappoint.

Do we have a clear idea of what the company will do if TE-10 and TE-11 fail?

One poster suggested re-drilling two old fields; it so happens that SOU were talking about the possibility of doing just that with TE-1 and TE-2 a while ago.

JP has been reported as planning a LE regardless of what happens with the next two drills.

Based on what we know, it wouldn't be much of an event, if it happened at all, unless the seismic results really are worth pounds per share.

Would it not made sense to continue drilling, assuming the necessary finance can be arranged?

If it cannot, then that would imply that there is no confidence in the company's project.

I think AIM is dominated by share price manipulation.

The only thing that will end it in the investors' favor is a bid.

Yes, LC.

JP was asked specifically whether the 150 p figure per TCF was based on in place or recoverable TCF.

He replied that it was based on TC in place..

I don't remember him saying that you had to multiply that figure by 0.47, either - just that 1 TCF was worth 150 p.

At 12:45, Malcy starts to talk about shareholders who had hoped for a takeover price of 100 p and comments that it looks like merely 'a stop on the journey.'

JP replies that each of the three prospects has 'three-digit potential ' and that Tendrara might have four-digit potential.'

https://www.malcysblog.com/2016/09/tiptv-ceo-interview-james-parsons-of-sound-energy/

At about 9:30 - 9:50, Malcy and JP discuss the value to SOU of each TCF.

JP says at $8, it's 100 p net.

Let's say TE-10 is successful and the mid-case applies.

Adding that to TE-5 gives 92 + 26 = 118 p per share.

How do we then get to JP's '5- or 10-bagger'?

… bearing in mind that the share price was not very far short of 100 p when he said that.

Presumably, that's where some posters got the idea that 1000 per share was achievable.

Well, Wagner, based on JJ's guidance, the value of TE-5 is 26 p per share, not 56 p - nor even 50 p or 45 p..

Well, Jimmybob, is Seismic expected to constitute most of the value of the company when it is sold?

You know, Jimmy bob, JP did always say that most of the company's value would come from seismic results, topped up by drill results.

The way most posters seem to have been looking at it is the other way round.

As the share price has dropped, they have become convinced (correctly) that TE-9 would fail and that the next two drills will fail too.

There are two possibilities: the directors are wrong about the value of the seismic results or the posters are wrong about the importance of the drill results.

In due course, we will find out who is right.

I remember a few years ago reading a post by a shareholder who had just attended a company meeting.

He said Keith Bush told him he thought a reasonable price for Northern Petroleum shares would be x p, naming a figure several times the quoted price.

Since then, the price has collapsed and Bush has departed, taking all the shareholders' hopes with him.

I think the problem is that no one can tell you what the sale price of a company or a company's asset will be.

They can tell you what a fair price would be.

But how about asking what a fair share price would be?

Thanks for your replies.

If 50 p per share is a conservative valuation of what we already have found, why are people throwing in the towel at much lower levels - maybe all the way down to 15 p?

They seem to be saying that not only can they confidently predict that TE-10 and TE-11 will fail, but that TE-5/6/7 are failures too.

Do all your figures relate to TE-5, Speculater.
What about TE-6?

'Tendrara, Badile and Sidi Moktar are Sound Energy's three strategic plays which, according to CFO Mary Hood, each have "three digit potential" for the group's share price.'

'“Did the multi-TCF potential surprise us? No, it didn’t. But, what we were looking for [fromTE-6] was a commercial flow rate of say 3 to 3.5 million scuffs [standard cubic feet or ‘scf’] per day, and what we’ve actually got from that first well, the T6 well, is a flow rate of 17 mln scuffs per day.

She added: “It definitely surpassed our expectations.”

(https://www.proactiveinvestors.com/companies/news/166026/sound-energy-turns-up-volume-on-remaining-potential-in-morocco-and-italy-166026.html)

What has happened to expectations from TE-6?