Member Info for LONGWAIT

'which we all know it does'

We now know that we didn't know what we thought we knew.

Kelly's widow identified the packet of paracetamol which was found on him and which had been emptied.

How would assassins have broken into the family home unnoticed; why would they have stolen the packet of paracetamol; how could they have committed a murder without anyone in the village noticing them?

If not much has changed, can you explain why the share price has collapsed?

Is it due to private investors giving up or shorting?

'... a salesman would never ask you to buy a bad product ' ?

You mean '...a salesman would never tell you he's selling a bad product.'

But the analogy with SOU is not a valid one.

Agreed, SJ.

It's too late to sell, but what's the point of trying to catch a falling knife?

People here were buying at double the present price because they thought it was too cheap.

I for one will not average down until there is good news.

The argument that the price could soar on good news and one should therefore buy before good news is one that has never appealed to me.

Remember: this share could have been picked up at less than 20 p when oil had collapsed and there were fears that the company would go into receivership.

Since then, the company's prospects have brightened considerably, in terms of financing, production, exploration and even - although less noticeably - debt reduction.

If you can buy at anywhere near 20 p, it has to be a bargain.

'I do believe however that the share price fundamentally undervalues the business.'

That is not much consolation when, like me, you are losing about three-quarters of your investment on paper.

' given the poor sentiment that festoons this share at present, the chances are that all 3 wells will potentially fail / encounter problems.'

The poor sentiment cannot influence the outcome of the drills.

Well, JC, option 3) sounds something like what HUR are doing, which resulted in a share price slump when they raised funds to go it alone.

Thanks, Tidd

I agree.

I don't see the price going up by multiples overnight, either.

But I do think that will happen in time.

'unknowable nature of the geology'?

You mean we don't know whether HUR can get oil to flow?

Correction:

I confidently predict that whether the market is logical or not, the price of HUR shares will make a record high somewhen in the first half of next year.

You never cease to amaze me, Double!

That's the first time I've seen the word 'somewhen'.

I had to look it up to make sure you hadn't coined it.

I confidently predict that whether the market is logical or not, the price of HUR shares will make a record high in the first half of next year.

I agree, Double.

In my opinion, the market is illogical and manipulated and, as Bernard Baruch observed, its purpose is to make fools of us.

Yes - I agree.

As I explained, I am holding on because I don't know that TE-1O will fail.

But Jez is already expecting congratulations on being proven right that it will fail.

Why is he still holding shares?

'...Should Te-10 be a failure, which I suspect it will be ... and I'll remind you of that when it happens. You and others should listen very carefully to my predications because it could have saved you an awful lot of bother... I look forward to topping-up when the share price hits single figures.....and it will.'

(JezTheFez)

You may suspect something will happen; you may make predictions; but you cannot say 'it will' happen or when it happens', because, like the rest of us, you don't know.

My last post was in reply to Shpunken.

I don't understand why people who are holding for a single-figure price before buying are being urged to sell now.

I am holding too, but I won't sell, lest there be a rally - most likely on TE-1O success.

I am considering buying after TE-1O, regardless of the result, depending on what happens to the share price.

'Hence for Te-10:
P50: 2.6TCF*50% recovery*47% Sound share *£1.50 sensitivity = 92pps
P90: 1.2TCF*50% recovery*47% Sound share *£1.50 sensitivity = 42pps
P10: 5.0TCF*50% recovery*47% Sound share *£1.50 sensitivity = 176pps'

(JJ, as quoted by Wanger18 on 23 November, on page 57 - this page being page 1)

I'm assuming, Jimmybob, that your post was intended for me.

As I indicated, my figures are based on JJ's estimates, as given by another poster who had had correspondence with him.

I was referring to TE-10 alone.

The mid-case would yield 92 p per share.

I made the point that if no gas is found, the value to SOU shareholders is 0 p.

I appreciate there is a fear of posters trying to manipulate the share price, but, as I pointed out before, I am already losing 80 per cent on paper.

The point of my 5 TCF - 178 p / 2.6 TCF - 92 p / 1 TCF - 35 p / 0 TCF - 0 p comparison is that I don't agree that the odds favour buying before the results are announced.

I have no wish to see the price fall any further.