Member Info for LONGWAIT

I bought some more today for 1.49 p - only a modest amount, but I now have more than double the holding I sold four years ago.

I can remember markets in which you couldn't buy a speculative share at a reasonable price on the way up.

The market has certainly changed.

It seems that the most likely explanation for the share price plunge is private investors bailing out, convinced that the drills will all fail and the company with it.
If they are wrong, then the question is: will the share price recover sufficiently for most of us to recover our losses?
Even if all goes well, the share price recovers strongly and we all make a profit, it is hard to believe that this investment will turn out to be life-changing in the way suggested at The Gherkin.
As for JP's dreams, at the moment they seem to shareholders more like a nightmare.

I agree, Timster, but that would seem to suggest that SOU is expected to go into administration.

Looking at things dispassionately - and that is hard to do when, like me, you are already losing 80 percent on paper - is that what we really think?

We actually do not know what the true situation is.

'But what I can tell you is even with a modest 17 TCF - our base case - an onshore development in Morocco with that sort of volume. - that equates to many many multiples of our current share price.
JP at The Gherkin, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em7JoYgAMTU, 9:25 - 9:40.
The share price at the close of trading on the following day was 77.75 p.
If, say, JP meant 8x, that would mean 50x the present share price.
Either this is a fantastic buying opportunity or JP was wrong.
I still don't see how providing transcripts of what JP said, stating facts, or asking pertinent questions constitutes 'blaming others.'

I have been providing transcripts of what JP has said, and I said that I think it is unethical for a poster to wish financial misfortune on another poster.

Can you substantiate your claim that I am continually blaming others'?

' This is a winning team. We make no excuse about the fact we like to win. And the twelve - month numbers - on the first of January. - kind of speak for themselves: a 308 percent increase in the share price and a 439 percent increase in the market cap. 2016 has, for sure, been a good year for Sound. So whilst, yes, we are probably the most successful oil and gas company at the moment, I am actually convinced - somewhat counter - intuitively - that we actually have more upside potential than we had a year ago.'

JP at The Gherkin, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em7JoYgAMTU, 5:49 - 6:20.

'... let me put on the table, right now, that I believe the Eastern Morocco - TAGI and PALAEOZOIC - will prove over the next year - maybe two - to be the making of our company, the making of Morocco, and the making of the dreams of most of us here today (loud cheering and applause).'

JP at The Gherkin, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=em7JoYgAMTU, 2:28 - 2:50.

It seems to me that one of the reasons so many investors have lost confidence is that they know JP said he intends to sell the company next year, regardless of the outcome of the three drills.

That means time in running out to prove up our supposed resources.

I have to say that I haven't ever heard of a company saying not only that it intends to sell up, but actually setting a date for it.

My understanding of how the market works is that a company is sold when someone makes an acceptable offer for it, not when it decides it would like to be bought.

If there were a workable Plan B to carry on, there might not be so much despair among shareholders.

'the gas you have found so far is not enough to pay for the development costs and will be left in the ground.'

We were repeatedly assured by supposedly-knowledgeable posters that the gas found so far is worth about 50 p per share.

Now we're being told ab 25 p.

Are you saying it's even less?

About Malcy: he opined that LOGP was extremely undervalued at 40 p five years ago.

It collapsed, falling to 0.47 p.

It has recovered to 1.65 p and may get back to 40 p if Barryroe is successful, but I would prefer to buy shares in companies like LOGP and SOU when they are rock bottom rather than when Malcy recommends them.

If and when SOU's fortunes change, I wonder how many of those who have thrown in the towel would buy back and how long it would take for confidence to return - if it ever did.

My guess is that the share price would not rise hugely in the short term.

Well, most of us have indeed held on and regret having done so.

His stated plan to sell the asset, regardless of whether the three drills be successful, accords with his view stated elsewhere that most of the value would come from seismic.

As far as I can recall, I haven't read a single post that agrees that this idea is feasible.

Welcome to The Gherkin... This evening, we are all part of something rather special ...

Perhaps you want to understand what 31TCF means for your investment. …

or perhaps you want to see... the fire in our eyes. - if it's still there!

I don't think CA would ever short HUR either, NW.

I don't think RB was joking when he said he thought HUR could one day be worth 17 bn and I remember he bought HUR shares at about 50 p on their way down to 24 p.

So, NW, you're sure that CA are not shorting HUR shares?

'volumes are under-estimated (less petroleum is discovered than was estimated).'

You mean volumes are over-estimated?

Dr Kelly's conversion was widely reported by the media:

A weapons expert educated at Oxford, Dr Kelly was a religious man who followed the Baha’i faith, which rejects suicide in any circumstances.

https://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/kelly-family-come-to-terms-with-suicide-1-656644

Dr Kelly's widow Janice has told the inquiry that Bahai "really was a spiritual revelation for him".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/3201133.stm

The family of Dr David Kelly is likely to bury him in accordance with the Baha'i faith he adopted four years ago, after being told yesterday that his body would be released later this week.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1436754/Bahai-funeral-for-convert-to-Middle-Eastern-religion.html

Barney Leith, secretary of the National Spiritual assembly of Britain, who knew Dr Kelly and will testify before the Hutton inquiry about the impact of the Baha'i faith had on him, said he could not know whether the scientist might have taken his own life because of guilt. But he added: "The teachings of the Baha'i faith strongly emphasise the importance of ... keeping one's word."

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2003/aug/22/huttoninquiry.politics

No-one has ever claimed that the paracetamol killed him.

It is more likely that he went to the woods to commit suicide than that a team of assassins were able to break into his home, steal the paracetamol packet (which was identified by his wife), find him in the woods, murder him, and leave the village without being noticed by anyone.

I don't think I am being naïve, Jelenko.

Some conspiracy theories are flawed.

Why were his wife's paracetamol tablets - a whole (empty) packet - found on him?