Member Info for Longknife

DP, didn't we already know Tam was "an operator". Same as Origin? Or anyone that has dug wells there? Not sure what your point is?

Unfortunately, into the $.08s today in the US. But up in London?

Some questions sticking in my mind are;
1- Did Sheffield know about Falcon's ROFR? It seems almost impossible that he didn't. If he did, it seems unlikely that he would just ignore it and hope that FOG was unable to execute on it. So....
2- Did he discuss w FOG or his board member at all before hand? Did he cut a deal w POQ beforehand- at least in theory?
3- it would seem to me that BS has a merger of Falcon and Tamboran in mind down the line, where he can get Falcon cheap. Why not have acquired this acreage w Falcon, had big control over all the acreage and then worked on a combined Tambo/Falcon merger without the acrimony.

It just seems odd that Sheffield would have let this little - albeit important- piece just hang out there and have to hope for the best.

Wet water actually making some sense today!!

Odie,
You are correct in that the buyer has to cover what origin had already promised to cover.
I meant that we would have to come up with money after these last two wells that were to be carried. I believe that was to be the end of our carry.

Taminow, the problem is, it CAN be taken away. I'm not sure of the exact caveats of the agreements, but Falcon needs to come up with its 22.5pct of any future costs (10s to 100s of millions) and we have almost $0 right now. We also have no way of raising any money except dilution other than holding the ability to obtain the origin acreage at a huge discount- $40m US. This is a huge asset for Falcon that will last 30 days and POQ needs to use it to extract promises from Tam and Sheffield to carry us going forward so we do not scuttle their plans or basically find another huge operator and make a deal w them for some of the acreage and to be carried to production. That is how I am seeing things here today- I could def be wrong but where I am righ now. Gltal

I'm not necessarily disagreeing, although it would have been better in my mind if Falcon was buying the piece. (And this was a conscious move by Sheffield to go w Tamboran and not Falcon-why?). My biggest question is how will Falcon pay for its downstream drilling now that BS has no incentive to help? His $10M investment pales in relationship to the money he could save on Falcon if it is unable to get financing. And if Falcon CAN get financing, at what cost? Seems better to bring in a partner like Santos and get carried again.

A merger with Tamboran would be acceptable if the shares were exchanged at a rate of say $.20 US . (Just thinking round numbers). We certainly can't exchange at the rate it's valued at by this transaction which is by $1.1 cents a share (minus the royalties). I would take Tamboran shares at a good exchange rate.

Got cut off sorry. The only scenario I see here that POQ may have been in on is if Tamboran had agreed to buy out FOG by issuing new shares, possibly at the same price Sheffield bought in at, or $.20- or possibly at current price. To me the biggest question is "why didn't Origin wait until after the two fracks to farm this down"?

I have to agree w oil on this- at least the "shocking disappointment" part. This amounts to $40 M US.
POQ should have got his Tuesday night investing club together and bought himself. Not counting possible future royalties, This values FOGs stock at $.011/share! That's 1.1 cents/share US. Who is going to carry FOG through the expensive drilling?? I imagine eventually, Sheffield will step up and say, hey I'll buy the entire float for some discounted price. If POQ has any cards up his sleeve, now is the time to play it.

For those who think that we just saw an aggressive management co take over and we will see increased drilling etc. who is going to carry FOG going forward? What incentive does Sheffield have to carry FOG now? To me it simply looks like an opportunity for him to either whittle down our pct or to say, "hey the price on beetaloo acreage has been set- here you go-For those that think the stock price will respond to the next two wells- look at Tamboran results. Ultimately we gave away 77.5pct of the beetaloo for a few 100 millions to prove up the acreage over years. After all that was done the acreage brought $60M.

B2B,
I'm also not looking to bash what Fog should be worth, but aside from the future royalties, Tambiran just got more than 3X what FOG has for $60M!

I never said they would tank. Although I think we will see a down day. I simply showed an equivalent value. My issue now is what is to keep Sheffield from bringing Falcon private and owning all of it?

Wet says they weren't dragging their feet and have accomplished a ton this year!!

For $60M there is no reason why FOG should not have raised the cash to buy this.

Here we were worried it was going to be $150M for 20Pct!!

Not withstanding the royalty payments, if this is in US $ then Falcon is worth about $17M or $.017/share. Yeah Origin has done a great job this year as many told us. What I don't understand is I tht they didn't receive any of the 77.5pct until they finished the full work program?

If this $150M is for 40 pct of origins piece, that would value Falcons piece at about $108M or slightly lower than where it closed today. Can Origin be that desperate to get out of this deal??

Newt, just doing some quick math in US $. Under your scenario if 20Pct of origins 77.5pct is worth $150M, the entire origin piece would be $750M and the entire Origin/Fog piece would be Apx $968M. FOGs piece Apx $218M w a billion shares outstanding would be about $.22 US. Certainly a long way from where we want to be but double where we are today. I'm hoping this is more. 10pct stake though and not a 50pct stake. At least some movement and Sheffield seems to be the key.

Hey Wet, you prove my point with everything you said. You think a lot has been accomplished -it hasn't. The market is telling you that. The market is telling you that Falcon is not improving. Facts are facts. I personally don't care how you feel about me. I don't care if you buy or sell. I doubt you have much in this anyway. I also don't care whether you think I should sell or stay. I have an idea, why don't YOU sell because you clearly get yourself too worked up reading anything not positive about Falcon.

PS- what are the rumors you referenced? Or were they all in your head?