Member Info for Longknife

WW,
Thanks for the advice. However, I am now questioning your reading comprehension skills as well as your general knowledge. I realize you thought Origin was doing a great job for Falcon and was very busy but the fact is they were NOT! And now we have more delays. My point is we should sell this as soon as we have any sort of commercialization proved and not get into being a producer. Frankly, I don't think that day will ever come. And if this well does NOT show commercial rates, someone will step in and buy all of FOG for under $10M. And....I always worry when a board devolves into people saying, "if you don't agree/can't stand the risk/don't like the management/direction etc, then maybe you should just sell"! That generally means the end is near.

Here in the states we have a saying, "make hay while the sun shines"! That's why I still don't like the idea of pushing the monetization of FOG out 3,4,5 years. You never know what's going to happen in the future. Like the political climate.

I'm shocked there were enough people buying. Although prob a good time to sell tax loss and buy back in a month. Nothing happening here for 5-6 months

Newt- some good points on reevaluating but there really is very little in the way of choices. Esp for those that have been in 10 yrs or more. Sell now for a big loss, wait for a double in the fairly near term and get out, wait for a big payoff (10x) or a combo. A double on a 10-15 yr investment is a very avg return but certainly not the HR people were hoping for. I have to agree with whoever it was that said that POQ talked the board into this new strategy so he can get about her 5-10 yrs of pay out of this and still play the big CEO role.

Oleo,
Yeah not sure if we're starting drilling by the end of the month we have to wait until end of the 1Q for results? That's almost 6 months away! And after having accomplished NOTHING the last 12-15 months, the wait is that much longer. The wait for this stock price to go up looks to be even longer than that. Frustrated? Yes. But it could be a lot worse.

Oleo,
Let's be honest. When you say, "Fog sold the 77.5% for just 6.75 million australian", what they really said was They agreed not to interfere w the sale for that money. Plus the right to option in or out of each well as described. I have to say, it doesn't seem like much. I don't know if we had an option here though. The biggest issue for me is that instead of "2022 being the biggest year in the history of the beetaloo", we are now looking at years and years of seeing this stock monetized. I don't believe the next two wells (successful or super successful) will make much of a difference in the share price and then We wait and wait and wait. Certainly the world will be a different place by then and who knows what the market will be for this gas. I think you're right in that POQ changed direction to suit his own career. Prove it up and sell it. That's what we've been told and now a big change.

Darn it, I didn't hear him say anything like that.

B2B. As someone said, I think I was sleeping when the meeting was held. My point is, if it was a heavy hitter it should be able to come up w that cash easily and not be looking for money from FOG. I'll listen to the replay though- thanks

Frackme. Thank you for the answer. I didn't get to hear the presentation today. What springs to mind is; with a price of only $40M US and then maybe another $60M for the two wells, if dilution was required it couldn't have been much of a "heavy hitter".

Frackme- I agree with most of what you said but why do you think a buy out would have resulted in dilution? I would think the point of the buyout would be no dilution. Simply letting a buyer in for the right to buy the 77 pct of the beetaloo at a very low price and a carry for FOG down the line. While I think and stated previously that this is a likely outcome and not a terrible one, there is dilution coming! Let's just hope the price is much higher at that point. JMHO

I have been wondering about the agreement FOG had w Origin to provide their share of funds, let origin have control etc. Do we know for certain that those same terms to someone who has simply bought the acreage? (Which since origin never completed the wells it would seem they don't own the 77 pct yet). My question is would FOG have the option to simply say "sorry we're not contributing to the wells" and let Tam prove it up themselves? Simply sit on the sidelines?

B2B,
Thanks I read them but I'm not invested in Tamboran. I'm invested in FOG and concerned about it going forward . I agree Tam will be in a good position if it gets this deal done.

That would seem to me to be a decent idea provided that Fog is valued at a decent number. I would take stock in a Tam-FOG co with 100pct of the acreage.

Newt- Thanks again. I just don't see two good wells raising the stock to .30. I hope it does but even so 250M shares is a whole lot of dilution!

Newt,
My reference to a billion shares is if we don't do anything and Tambo takes over the deal. Even if we are carried for the next two wells and they do well I don't know that we will see a huge rise in share price. At that point Tambo will be looking for money to continue moving forward on more wells. FOG is currently worth less than 80M US. Where do we think that money will come from? Either through issuing more shares or through giving up more of our 22.5 pct. And if we need to come up w $50-$100M for new wells that comes out to 500M to 1B new shares at $.10 (a 25pct premium to where we are now). I'm not sure how else FOG comes up w cash if the Tam deal goes through. I would love to hear some alternatives to this. (Meaning IF we end up w Tam acquiring origins interest)
Thanks for your info- always appreciated.

Oleo,
My biggest issue is if this deal goes through as it is structured now, and the next two wells are carried- we need a much higher stock price to raise cash. Past history has shown that a decent well doesn't mean a markedly higher stock price. If it doesn't raise the price, we are now stuck w a co w a current mkt cap of about $80M US trying to raise $50-100M for the next few wells. We'd be looking at issuing another billion shares or giving away a lot of what we have.
The only major asset we have right now (outside of the 22.7pct) is the rofr . If we were able to raise the money ourselves by issuing stock (unlikely) it wouldn't really be dilution as the deal would theoretically be accretive. We'd be gaining over 3X what we have now. Most likely I see a deal being made w Tamboran where they need to carry us farther down the line or we bring in a JV partner (similar to what we did w origin) and get carried further down the line! Possibly acquire back some acreage as well. To sit and do nothing would be a big mistake imo, but again, we're all just speculating. This next 3 weeks will show us if POQ was worth all the money.

I love people who belly ache and complain........about people who belly ache and complain.

This is going to be a long 20 days. Market is approaching 52 week lows. If you have B**ls, it's a good time to buy. I imagine we're going to see more and more selling .

DP. You mean unless they have a partner. I hope THAT is not what Tam is hanging their hat on?? Why they didn't bother talking to FOG? (If true).

Oleo,
If, as we think right now, Sheffield and Tamboran did not strike a deal or speak with Falcon beforehand, they might not be as good of businessmen as we have thought. To leave this issue "unresolved" (ROFR) and just "hope" that it would not become an issue seems pretty shortsighted and may come back to haunt them. I'd also like to know what (if any) private conversations went on between Sheffield and his man on Falcons' board-although I realize we will never know. Could his man on the board put a wrench into any of POQs plans to "defend" this move?