Member Info for Longknife

Same w me!

805- is that supposed to be in the 2Q or 3Q? Looks like maybe some are taking profits? Oil is up but TBN continues to drop. I don't think most even have their TBN shares yet? Let's hope we see some action here and move the stock price. Summer is usually a very slow time and after that we'll start hearing about "the rainy season"! Let's go!!!

Well, the deal is done. Not much to talk about there anymore. No white knights, no higher offers. Looks like the stocks converged and TBN right now is at 33.47 US or about $.23 old FOG share US. What do we think will be the next major catalyst for the stock price?

Flow rates? They've historically not done much for the stock price.

Commercial sales - I'm guessing that this is already priced in but maybe the fact that it is accomplished will help with the price.

The farm out- this seems like the most likely driver to me. IF we have good results and get a good price.

I would like to see a bit over $50 (or .33 Fog) in the short term and long term goal is $150 ($1/Fog). I still think this ($1) is possible but 3-6 years away IMO.

Any other catalysts coming up that people think may drive the stock price?

Have we heard any reason to believe the deal won't close this week as stated?

Yes!

$.234 US

Go Noles - I am in pretty much the same situation. Finally profitable on this buy - actually about a double overall- which is not great for 10 years but not terrible either. I'm not happy about the purchase price either and the stock price of both TBN and FOG since have shown that it was a lowball deal. I'm hoping the acquisition happens in the next two weeks as discussed and hoping that TBN doesn't continue to drop and that We get a little bump on the purchase. Right now in the US, FOG is trading at $.235 And TBN at $34.95 or about $.24 for FOG. At the very least I'd like to see the stock at the same price it was 10 years ago- seems like a fair request

It probably will not but this is going to still be a long road either way. Many ups and downs over the next years to come. Hope for a decent return.

Probably people who don't think the deal is going to go through as the TBN equivalent price is over $.24 US

I show a lot cap under $1B.

Well since we're 1/3 of the way through the second quarter, I guess it's about where everyone thought....

The FOG/TBN spread seems to be TBN dropping down to FOG, not Fog rising to TBN. To my mind this means the closing is close. Of course my opinion doesn't mean much.

Well this guy makes my 3-4 year prediction look pretty optimistic. Predicting $150/tbn/share or $1/shr/FOG in 2032

Have there been any news releases in regards to what DW plans to do with their acreage? It really seems like they plan to do nothing until TBN and BR (empire), (of whom BS has major interests) have taken all of the risk of proving up the ground. He has enough control over both companies to basically get what he wants done and then enjoy the rewards. Yes, he has put his own capital behind it but I see nothing in what he is doing as a benefit to us shareholders of FOG, TBN or BR. Certainly not in the way it will benefit himself. I am interested in hearing the other side of this.

Also, someone recently mentioned that they thought this latest raise was because we are not getting the numbers we hoped for in a potential farm out. I'm beginning to think this has a little more validity than I originally did. If true, I'd rather they do this raise than give away a big chunk at more bargain basement prices. The offering at $35 did not show a ton of confidence in the (then) current share price. If they had a good farm out deal in the works I think we could have seen better. Again, looking for opposing thoughts here.

Imatired,

A guy complaining about people complaining.

Dilution of 25pct or so will do that! Esp at discounted prices!

I'm not sure but they basically just issued 5.7M shares of stock and FOG is getting about 6.5M shares so the transactions are close.

So in reality we are diluting by 25pct! This seems like a huge deal to me. Why the big discount to the recent stock price? Why has Sheffield not done any work w DW? It seems to me he is just sitting back and going to milk TBN and Empire for everything they have and prove up the ground and then either drill or sell his acreage after it's proven. Pretty smart but doesn't do us (shareholders) much good! Thoughts on this appreciated.

"The capital raising is structured in two parts:

An underwritten public offering of about 2.96 million shares at US$35.00 each, expected to raise US$103.5 million, with an additional 30-day option for around 443,000 shares

A pro rata accelerated non-renounceable entitlement offer expected to raise up to approximately US$79 million.

In total, around 5.7 million new shares will be issued, representing roughly 25% of existing capital."

TS, well it's good you're not worried about the share price because the pre mkt is showing about a 23pct drop for TBN. I'm hoping it won't stay there and will rise again. Like you, I've been in for close to a decade and if we're in the first inning I surely won't live to see the end of the game as I'm in my late 50s now! Unlike you, I plan to take some of my money if I can sell some in the mid $.30s US FOG or $$50+ TBN US. That price puts me close to a triple and if I can sell a third then at least I get my original cash back. "Hope" is not a plan but I'm hoping that's not too far off. Best of luck to all.

So is this about a 10 pct dilution?