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WE,
As usual, your ability to drone on and on without saying anything impressed me. Congrats, you would make a fine politician. One thing I did notice in your turgid, blustery statement was your point about buying the acreage based on todays gas prices- which is not what I said or meant. The point about todays politics changing is just that. A scandal, a whim, anything could change the politics in the future and cause another moratorium, a withdrawal from commitments to provide funding, etc. POQs statements always said "drill a few wells, here and there, prove commercial flow rates and sell". You pretend that is still the plan. It's not- at least according to POQ!
WW,
Thanks for the advice. However, I am now questioning your reading comprehension skills as well as your general knowledge. I realize you thought Origin was doing a great job for Falcon and was very busy but the fact is they were NOT! And now we have more delays. My point is we should sell this as soon as we have any sort of commercialization proved and not get into being a producer. Frankly, I don't think that day will ever come. And if this well does NOT show commercial rates, someone will step in and buy all of FOG for under $10M. And....I always worry when a board devolves into people saying, "if you don't agree/can't stand the risk/don't like the management/direction etc, then maybe you should just sell"! That generally means the end is near.
Here in the states we have a saying, "make hay while the sun shines"! That's why I still don't like the idea of pushing the monetization of FOG out 3,4,5 years. You never know what's going to happen in the future. Like the political climate.
Newt- some good points on reevaluating but there really is very little in the way of choices. Esp for those that have been in 10 yrs or more. Sell now for a big loss, wait for a double in the fairly near term and get out, wait for a big payoff (10x) or a combo. A double on a 10-15 yr investment is a very avg return but certainly not the HR people were hoping for. I have to agree with whoever it was that said that POQ talked the board into this new strategy so he can get about her 5-10 yrs of pay out of this and still play the big CEO role.
Oleo,
Yeah not sure if we're starting drilling by the end of the month we have to wait until end of the 1Q for results? That's almost 6 months away! And after having accomplished NOTHING the last 12-15 months, the wait is that much longer. The wait for this stock price to go up looks to be even longer than that. Frustrated? Yes. But it could be a lot worse.
Oleo,
Let's be honest. When you say, "Fog sold the 77.5% for just 6.75 million australian", what they really said was They agreed not to interfere w the sale for that money. Plus the right to option in or out of each well as described. I have to say, it doesn't seem like much. I don't know if we had an option here though. The biggest issue for me is that instead of "2022 being the biggest year in the history of the beetaloo", we are now looking at years and years of seeing this stock monetized. I don't believe the next two wells (successful or super successful) will make much of a difference in the share price and then We wait and wait and wait. Certainly the world will be a different place by then and who knows what the market will be for this gas. I think you're right in that POQ changed direction to suit his own career. Prove it up and sell it. That's what we've been told and now a big change.
B2B. As someone said, I think I was sleeping when the meeting was held. My point is, if it was a heavy hitter it should be able to come up w that cash easily and not be looking for money from FOG. I'll listen to the replay though- thanks
Frackme. Thank you for the answer. I didn't get to hear the presentation today. What springs to mind is; with a price of only $40M US and then maybe another $60M for the two wells, if dilution was required it couldn't have been much of a "heavy hitter".
Frackme- I agree with most of what you said but why do you think a buy out would have resulted in dilution? I would think the point of the buyout would be no dilution. Simply letting a buyer in for the right to buy the 77 pct of the beetaloo at a very low price and a carry for FOG down the line. While I think and stated previously that this is a likely outcome and not a terrible one, there is dilution coming! Let's just hope the price is much higher at that point. JMHO
I have been wondering about the agreement FOG had w Origin to provide their share of funds, let origin have control etc. Do we know for certain that those same terms to someone who has simply bought the acreage? (Which since origin never completed the wells it would seem they don't own the 77 pct yet). My question is would FOG have the option to simply say "sorry we're not contributing to the wells" and let Tam prove it up themselves? Simply sit on the sidelines?
Newt,
My reference to a billion shares is if we don't do anything and Tambo takes over the deal. Even if we are carried for the next two wells and they do well I don't know that we will see a huge rise in share price. At that point Tambo will be looking for money to continue moving forward on more wells. FOG is currently worth less than 80M US. Where do we think that money will come from? Either through issuing more shares or through giving up more of our 22.5 pct. And if we need to come up w $50-$100M for new wells that comes out to 500M to 1B new shares at $.10 (a 25pct premium to where we are now). I'm not sure how else FOG comes up w cash if the Tam deal goes through. I would love to hear some alternatives to this. (Meaning IF we end up w Tam acquiring origins interest)
Thanks for your info- always appreciated.