Member Info for Longknife

Dprussky is right in that any issue with these wells will be a major setback to everyone involved- especially Falcon. There will be those looking to spin it (if there are major issues) that it will be good for Falcon, that now we will have a new operator, new money and things will now, FINALLY, move along. Unfortunately we have been hearing that same exact thing for years. Last year it was, "just wait until 25 when we have flow rates on the 2 wells in the 1Q and we will be doing reverse splits at inflated prices to fund the next 4 wells and selling gas in 26....blah blah blah!" The one thing I will give POQ credit for is getting us the opportunity to opt out of deals. We can just sit back and wait. Unfortunately it looks like that wait is going to be a lot longer than we expected. Frankly I don't think that getting TBN to give up what they have will be quick or easy. Perhaps if someone throws enough money at them they will. My unrealistic hope is that there is a major announcement and things are still ok. The more realistic guess is that we are looking at a major reset that will take a very long time to sort out and then maybe in two or three years we will be back to saying..."when we get the flow rates from these next wells that we're going to drill next year, things will be different....". The $1/share dream might still be alive but $1 in 5+ years is not the same as $1 today. As always, I would gladly take $.30/share right now and be out of this deal.

"Moreover they have no limit on the amount of patience they may require to ultimately get paid off equitably for their valuable 22.5% share".

This is true. It doesn't benefit many shareholders though. It may require 5 years or 10 years or 20+ more years. And POQ has no problem collecting his 750K/ yr while he waits.

What I am curious about is where does it say that if TBN Can not come up w the money to continue (and what is the time frame for them to raise the money? 1 yr? 2 yr? 5yrs?) , that their partner can take over for a "nominal sum"?

Again, if there is bad news on these wells, we may be looking at multi yr delays in getting anything done.

I imagine we're going to have to wait until the 14th to find out what's going on.

Wet, let's hope that Tamboran can continue. If they can't, I fear we are looking at multi year delays as well as lawsuits, etc.

We haven't heard anything yet but I am guessing because of the lack of an announcement of the flow testing and no flare in the satellite pics that there has been another problem. Hopefully it's not a permanent one. Whether it's Tamboran's fault or Liberty's or whoever's- it's another delay. It's been well over a year since the "fantastic" news on the 500M well. If TBN can't raise the money for the next two wells we are looking at more delays while they sort that out in one way or another. It's clear TBN and FOG are merely nuisances to Sheffield, to be cleared out as he takes over the Beetaloo. As I've been saying for awhile, FOGs best bet is probably just to sit on the sideline while others do the work (what else are they capable of?) until the beetaloo looks so good someone buys us out. The other option is it looks so good that we can raise the money at a decent stock price and participate. I used to say we were 3-5 years away from a monetization of FOGs assets but I'd say we're now still 5 years away- IF the beetaloo is as good as promised. A buyout of FOG at $.30 in the next year or so would be a dream come true, but I don't think it will happen.

Wet- whatever it is called, have you heard anything on whether it has been reinforced/repaired yet?

Wet- have you "heard" anything about whether the 4H well has been repaired/reinforced yet? It was to have been completed in the 1Q.

805, This. I think the most likely scenario (barring a low offer for FOG) is that we continue to sit out the next 3-5 years while this acreage is slowly proven up. Hopefully the stock price will slowly rise as well so some can get out and then either a real buyout or we can raise money at some decent prices. JMHO

Wet, if TBN has spent $900M, what has Origin and its predecessors spent on the Falcon permits? If a similar amount, it's hard to believe they've put over $1.5B in to end up with two companies w a mkt cap of under $500M. It really reinforces the fact that you need big money and big b&((s to even be in this business!

Wet- do you know what the delay is on the 2H well? I don't believe they were going to attempt to fix the casing on the 3H until we had 30 day flow test on the 2H- is that correct? If that is late May and they were to start the fix on the 3H well in June. (Let's say it does take 30 days). We are now into July and need to frack it and then if another 5 week soak it looks to me like the earliest we would see 30 day flow rates from the 3H is late Sept? And that's if the 3H can be fixed in 30 days. If, as you say 30 days is unrealistic, we could be looking at the end of the year before we have 30 day flow rates from the 3H. Does this timeline make sense? What am I missing? Either way, we've spent over a year getting excited to hear results on these two wells in April and now looks like this is all that will be accomplished in 2025. I really hope that the results are fantastic on these two wells and we see $.15-$.20 US on these results so some of the long term holders here (including myself) can get some of our money out of this "investment".

I have to believe, that Sheffield, owning large pieces of Empire, Falcon and Tamboran, as well as his own huge chunk of the Beetaloo, was 100pct on board with whatever the plan was to drill the 3H well. I just can't imagine that;

A: Sheffield made no recommendations into the plan

B: Riddle would have said "no" to anything that Sheffield suggested on the plan.

That being said- we are once again delayed. I'm not sure why the 2H is now delayed but the 3H will probably run into late summer, (if the issue can be fixed) IMO for the 30 day results and then another 60 days for the 90. I doubt very much we will see any other wells drilled in 2025. It's already been well over a year since the last potential share price moving catalyst and frankly I don't think the 2H will do much. I believe we are now waiting on if the 3H can be fixed and then the results from that well. Again, I think we are multiple years away from any buyout of Falcon. My question is; if say, someone was to buy Falcon this year- would they be able to participate in the next 4 wells that FOG has already opted out of? I'm guessing it would be a Tamboran decision and I would think they would want the help with the drilling costs but possibly not. Does anyone know the answer to this?

Thanks

I am more than willing to sell my shares to Inpex right now for $3/share if it will help them lock up that gas! Just send me a check!!

I mostly agree with Smallfish. Eventually, if the macro market doesn't change we will get some money out of this stock. I might not be around to see it but someone will. And I think he's close on the 6 bagger or about $.42 US. I think we'll get the usual increase on the run up to news on the first flow rates and then it will prob come down again until the flow rates on the 3H come out and if good- might hold in the $.15 -.20 range. If the 3H well can't be fixed we are back to $.07 for quite awhile. JMHO as always.

Tamboran up 17pct today. Only news is the it is 55pct owned by retail investors. Any insight here?

Wet,

What do you think TBN and Riddle did wrong on this last problem? I was under the impression that they had brought in the best contractors "from the US", to do this job. What specifically, do you think they could have done differently to avoid yet another issue here?

While I am rooting for TBN like nobody's business, I don't own any. I do realize that FOG needs TBN to succeed. The last thing we need is more delays as I believe we are still 2-4 years out on any buyout offer and now possibly longer. I think we will see quite a gap between the 30-90 day results on the 3H well and any more drilling, regardless of results. Stock price moving catalysts are few and far between and now I am almost certain that the 2H well will NOT move the stock price much or for long. If the 3H well comes in as predicted in July or August or whenever, maybe we get a small sustained bump in the price. Certainly nothing near the $.30 US we were at 10 years ago. I am afraid that the best thing FOG can do now is simply wait on the sideline for someone else to do the work. (Of course that's pretty much what we have done) Hopefully, someone very well capitalized and able to do this work as quickly as possible. JMHO as always.

Wonder if we will see a news release on this tomorrow from Falcon. Another delay. I'm sure this is why Riddle just wanted "a nice easy 7 iron in the middle of the fairway". Disappointing as it's been over a year since the last "stock moving catalyst" and looks like we have a few more months to wait at least. I'm not sure how much of an issue this problem is? Easily fixable? Depends on what they find?

Wet,

I am going by the info in Fogs release speaking of the new area that may be created from the two DSUs plus any addl acreage added as per below post the pilot. How this affects the actual first two DSUs, if at all, I'm not sure. Nor how much acreage will be added to this FSDA which as I can make out would affect the total.

"The Beetaloo JV partners are planning on creating an enlarged area around the Pilot, known as the First Strategic Development Area (“FSDA”), which would amalgamate the acreage and PIs from the DSUs mentioned above and any further DSUs that may be created as part of the Pilot

Depending on the ultimate size of the planned FSDA Falcon’s combined participation entitlement in the FSDA post the Pilot could be up to 10%."

As far as the sustained price increase, that would be great! However, as you know, we almost always see a big run up before results are released and then good or bad, we have seen a run down. "Buy on rumor, sell on news". I certainly hope this goes to $1 or more! We will see!

Boogie. Clearly English isn't your first language so I will forgive you the fact that your reading comprehension is so poor. Go back and read it again and when you get your thoughts together get back to me. Better yet.....don't.

Ahhhh, it's Mr B2B out of his hole. The new number 1 pumper of Falcon and Mr POQ!! While there is no real need to do any financial analysis on FOG because there is very little in the way of cash, inventory or revenue, that's not what people have discussed here. And FOG did not lower its participation in this area to 10pct, it's a possible MAX of 10pct. I also called this strategy of just sitting out while others proved up the beetaloo quite some time ago so I'm not sure why that's a negative? I also called no sustained share price increase before the great results last time and I feel the same about any good results this time. While I still remain optimistic in getting a decent return on my 8-9 yr investment here, I am also a realist and not living in fantasy land like Mr B2B. Now go back to Mr POQs basement and just let this play out over the next 4-5 years and you may be rewarded.

TBN up 12 pct after hours, FOG- nothing. I would have thought Fog would see some action.