Member Info for Longknife

Tired states,

"Selling price > share price. Price is based on the assets not share price. Sorry to disappoint you."

Well let's hope the sale price is higher than the share price since the share price is so stunningly low. And I believe it will be, just not by that much. And while the sale price should fairly value the assets (among many other things), the share price should also reflect the value of the assets, the business, the potential, etc and the market is telling us it's worth about $.09 US. It's worth exactly what someone is willing to pay for it.

A post whining about the whining! One thing I will agree with you on is that no one on this board is an expert and knows what's going to happen- everyone here is guessing.

60M+ shares issued and not quite a 1/3 to BS- who now owns over 10pct of the co. Apparently cavendish feels this, along w the royalties, is substantial dilution since they lowered their target price 13.5pct. POQ has a lot of questions to answer at the annual mtg but my opinion is just "GET THE SALE DONE".

Frack me. Thanks for responding. I am referring to the 130+M shares they say they can issue. (And companies tend to issue as much as they can) Yes. The cash amount is very small but 130M shares is more than 10pct of the co. That pie in the sky $1/share number some have been dreaming about is now only $.90/share more or less.

I understand you feel we will have "proven" the ground after the next two wells but will any real buyer? That was supposed to happen w the last well. What is someone buying? 5pct of these wells? The future wells which may be years down the line? That's assuming Tam can raise enough money to go forward. Or will BS take another huge piece of Tam? Is he currently slowly buying Falcon? What is to stop BS from taking FOG private? Us? Just so many questions and I'd like to see some alternatives here from those that still feel this is a 6-7 bagger. Frankly I'd take a double and feel lucky.

Frack me,

A few points respectfully.

I wouldn't call this a "small raise". Cash wise yes, but up to 130M shares is major dilution.

Also, what makes you think a sale before the end of 2025? Thank you.

Gonoles,

With all respect, we have NOT always said the real value is in the buyout. (Although the ultimate value was in the buyout) We all thought that good drilling results would bring a substantial uptick in the share price. We couldn't have been more wrong. Since the GREAT results, we are now offering shares for half the price we had BEFORE the great results. This business is definitely rigged to benefit the big players. The company can't do anything without outside help (money) and they'll "money" is dictating the terms- and they don't benefit us. If there was ANY sort of competition for FOG maybe we would see better results but clearly there isn't at this time.

Oleo, He's certainly working towards that goal! I said it and was basically laughed at but I see him taking over this company for well under $.30/share OR I see us sitting on the sidelines for years until there is actually some major revenue that people can't ignore. To get there though we will have to keep diluting. I reiterate, there is no reason to buy Falcon any time soon for a premium. I hope I'm wrong.

"Really don't understand why anyone would think this is the time to have the last straw and sell their shares unless they had External reasons."

Merloid,

I think it's pretty clear. Many have been waiting years and years for those good test results. Hoping for them and then a bump in share price. We finally get GREAT results and the share price collapses. There are many many things that can happen between now and a sale. Social, macro economics, political. And again, while I think POQ getting us the opt out feature was great, opting out just kicks the can down the road. What reason is there for anyone to buy Falcon anytime soon?? Assuming that Tamb and BS get the funds to continue this quickly. Why not do as Falcon has done and let someone else prove up (and I don't mean two more wells) the ground and THEN buy? Like 5-6 years from now.

Frack,

Once the options expire worthless they're gone though. So another round to replace them wouldn't affect that I don't believe.

This is the thing. They can just issue more options to replace any that expire....and more.

Wet,

I meant did he think the 90 day rates would affect the current price- I understand that everything that happens will affect the eventual sale price. As far as 8-9 years, yes I was being a bit facetious. My point however, (and I understand this doesn't mean anything to anyone but me) is on this as an investment. I'm not convinced we will get $.30 much less $.60 (and again,not based on any valuations of the potential resources but more about who is interested and who can exert influence on the price) but even at $1 this might not have been a good investment. A double or even a triple when you've held 15-20 years is not great when you bought in at $.20 or $.30 or more. I'm also not even a little convinced that we will sell within 24 months. So as far as I'm concerned, although we've seen some encouraging news, this is still a questionable investment even when it sells.

James- and do you think that will do anything for the share price? Falcon, are you ok then if POQ negotiates a buyout at say$.60 /share in 8-9 years? Would that have been a good investment for you? What would you consider a success?

This is my concern here. Not that this was the wrong choice as I didn't see much else that could be done other than massive dilution. My concern is that there is no reason to buy Falcon at this point that I can see. There is little revenue that could be coming in and we know that proving up the acreage doesn't seem to move the share price. The only exception I see are if someone can come in, buy out Falcon and then add their cash to the development of the S2 & S3 wells at the full 22.5pct.

B2B. If it was "blindingly obvious" I wouldn't have asked, and I have not seen the actual agreement. Have you? As far as "continuing to struggle", I'm not sure what you mean. I've been investing online for about 30 years and done very well overall. Penny stocks are a part of my investment strategy. Not a big part and most do NOT pay off. When they do, however, it is very exciting. I had hoped FOG would do that. As I've said, I'm now looking at a much smaller return. As far as Newt and wet water, some times I agree with them and other times I don't. For the most part I have always found them to be civil and rational. It seems that you and Mr POODS have become emotionally attached to this investment- never a good idea. It's not personal and there's no need to make any comments here personal. I have yet to insult anyone here despite what they say. If you choose to do that- well you just make yourself look bad.

POODS. Just what I figured.

POODS. That's great! Maybe you can prop up the share price some! But why do you think this is a good decision?. I don't necessarily disagree- there wasn't a great set of alternatives, but how do you think this is going to help the FOG shareholders? And does anyone know whether or not a buyer of FOG could go back and up its pct in these wells?

B2B , which part of what I write do you find to be "rubbish"? Esp since I've stated it's my opinion. You seem to gloss over the fact that the market clearly dislikes what FOG has done- as well as what Tam has done- yet you only mention Tam. What do you disagree with?

Dprussky,

Without a doubt! There may or may not be a pot o gold at the end for POQ but his life along the way is pretty darn good! Why change it up? Like I stated, he's probably locked up the status quo for another 4-5 years. I said before the flow results were released that good or bad I'd be looking to cut my position down 30-50pct. Unfortunately, we had good news and I was hoping for at least $.20 US. My mistake. The old adage, "buy on rumor, sell on news" has never been truer. Unfortunately this stock can not even hold $.10 now. Any selling of over a few hundred thousand shares in the US will drop the price even further. The only plus side I can see is that w the good flow results (and assuming the 90 day flow rates stay good) the stock is worth SOMETHING, although I don't know what. I'd love to hear some better scenarios as to what is going on here as I am naturally pessimistic when it comes to penny stocks- and especially FOG.

Newt,

One glimpse of something positive happening might be scenario number 4 on your list. Possibly Sheffield might now feel "why are we carrying Falcon and I now need to come up w some more cash"? "Let me get someone in here". The problem is, this is where someone comes in and buy FOG cheap. Hopefully at least a double from here today but it could be much less. If a new buyer can't come back and say "let me in at the full 22.5pct", there is no real incentive to buy at this point.

Frankly, I don't think today's news is that terrible- given the options. Apparently, 22.5% on the existing well and 5% on the next give us a total of 10% on the three Wells or 72,000 acres. Roughly 45% of what we would have at full participation. The alternative was raising money at these low rates which has been my fear for the last several years. This allows POQ to continue to collect the salary He has enjoyed for so many years. There is no rush for anyone to buy falcons portion at this point. It's share won't produce much for years. When the sale finally comes, I'm thinking more like 4 to 5 years, possibly it will be in the $.60-$.80 range. Any attempt, in my mind, to sell in the next couple of years will result in a sale with a slight premium to today's stock price. Sadly, I think $.30 is now out of the question. Why would someone sell out the money at this point to buy falcon unless they can get it super cheap? Just my humble opinion as always.