Member Info for Longknife

I'm going to use Blue Wiley's guidelines and put my own numbers in. Again only a guess here.

TBN Share Price US$

Falcon Acquisition - end of January $24. I wouldn't be surprised if it's lower than this as I think it could continue to decline as the date gets closer.

APA Pipeline Finished - January/February $24.50. Don't think we will see much of an increase on this.

Flow rates February - January/February $30-35. Assuming they're good I think we'll see a bump- hopefully it will be sustained.

Farm Out Deal Announcement - February/March/April $45-50. This is where it gets tricky. Everyone is assuming we get a big number on the farm out just. Like we assumed we'd get a big number on the Falcon sale. I don't think we will. But the fact that we (hopefully) have a major company getting involved will help us here. If we say we're at the high end and get to $50 US. $50x.00687=$0.34 US for an old share of Falcon. The good news being that we will then be at about the same price as we were 8-9 years ago before the moratorium. Great job POQ!!!!!

Beetaloo Energy Australia Limited (BTL.AX) Operations Update

Beetaloo Energy Australia Limited (BTL.AX) (EEGUF) advises that flow testing equipment has arrived at the Carpentaria 5H well site. The equipment has been rigged up and will soon commence operations. 

The Company acknowledges that the commencement of the IP30 flow test will be later than previously anticipated. This is due to a delay in the arrival of the third party equipment, which was in use for another operator for significantly longer than forecast. 

The installation of flow testing equipment enables commencement of the IP30 flow test which is scheduled to begin shortly. 

This test will deliver important performance data to guide future well design and support the transition toward pilot production. 

Results from the IP30 flow test are expected in December 2025.

Oil,

I've never been a believer in the tax selling angle for FOG. At least in the US. There just isn't much volume. You just can't dump it on the mkt and frankly the stock is higher (albeit historically low) than it has been in years. I tht the goal for the buyout was Feb? Assuming we will vote in Dec or Jan. If you believe that this buyout will go through and believe that TBN stock won't continue to fall, there is an oppty here. Not much but a persistent, consistent believer could make some money here if he is right.

Beetaloo Energy Australia Limited (BTL.AX) Operations Update

Beetaloo Energy Australia Limited (BTL.AX) (EEGUF) advises that flow testing equipment has arrived at the Carpentaria 5H well site. The equipment has been rigged up and will soon commence operations. 

The Company acknowledges that the commencement of the IP30 flow test will be later than previously anticipated. This is due to a delay in the arrival of the third party equipment, which was in use for another operator for significantly longer than forecast. 

The installation of flow testing equipment enables commencement of the IP30 flow test which is scheduled to begin shortly. 

This test will deliver important performance data to guide future well design and support the transition toward pilot production. 

Results from the IP30 flow test are expected in December 2025. 


"4H delayed due to unfortunate Service operator mistake, broke a coil, on retrieval. Zero setback, zero cost, Service operator to pay."

Could you imagine if Riddle was still here? We'd all be hearing about how this was his fault. Problems happen but hopefully we can get some stock price appreciation one of these days. Despite the supposed arbitrage oppty for FOG buyers on the TBN takeover, nobody seems interested in buying FOG right now. Either they don't believe it will happen or it's just too volatile to buy much without seeing the share price rise.

Newt,

When do we think DW will do anything with their share of the acreage? Have they announced anything for the future? Or just going to let TBN prove it up?

Cam. Outside of a white night making a run at Falcon, I don't see that we have any real choice. POQ completely failed at his job. I still want to hear why he said we had all expenses covered in August and then had the bond payment come up. We will just have to take the small amount we're getting and roll it with a diluted and flawed TBN. I still stand by we'll get somewhere around $.30-$.50 for Falcon ultimately after accounting for the TBN conversion, the farm out and flow test results. (Assuming the tests are good)

Guys, why are we calling this a "merger"? It really doesn't matter that much but this is no merger. This is a buyout pure and simple. People want to pretend this is two companies coming together to create a great new company like Exxon and Mobil! Or even Sirius and XM. There will be no combining the great staffs of FOG and TBN, no great new synchronizing of talents and brainpower, no nothing. They are buying us like you would buy a farm animal. They are buying our permits and after they do I doubt FOG will ever be mentioned by TBN or thought about again! They are simply paying us in their stock because we will take it. (And I'd rather that anyway) On a technical note it's not a merger because there is no new name, no new entity, and no new shares of stock in the new company being issued. And there's nothing wrong with that- this is what we all wanted after all- although at probably a 5x more than we are actually getting.

Newt- and yet now, Falcon is being bought by the same company that did all those things. Bought for less than what we were trading at before the moratorium. So we have seen the demise of Falcon after all and we will all just be Tamboran shareholders-

....Because I want to start enjoying my weekend.

1- I think TBN is the only option because we have a CEO who totally dropped the ball on this bond issue. That's it, we missed it. I dont trust POQ to do anything, much less find another buyer. He is a complete failure as a CEO and should probably be sued, although I'm not going to waste my energy on that.

2- TBN may be at $100/ share in a few years but I doubt it. That still gets us to about $.68 US/share. Way under the $1 US we had hoped for.

3- My opinion is TBN will be run into the ground and used to make these companies investing now millions. They will get big contracts and make tons of money from TBN but TBN shares will languish while DW makes out beautifully.

Have a great weekend!

Oil,

Correct me if I'm wrong but this is substantial dilution!

Up to 2.7M shares being offered here to Baker Hughes and others will result in Apx 20.5M shares outstanding? Apx 13pct of the company? At a substantial discount. Then another Apx 6.5M shares for Falcon? We will be at Apx 27M total shares? At least the TBN board can argue the FOG deal is accretive since they had POQ bent over a barrel, but looks like BS will pick up more shares here on the cheap- furthering his control over the beetaloo.

I'm begining to think that TBN will be the main one to prove up the Beetaloo. Daily waters will sit on the sideline (as Falcon should do) while TBN continues to dilute itself and spend its money drilling and proving until DW can get a real price for its farm down.

It doesn't matter what the stock price is today. Ultimately our shares will be worth less because of this dilution today. And there will most likely be more. A farm down is great if it sets a stock value that the mkt respects and invites more investment but we've now lost that acreage. Whatever they pay for it- that's all we're getting! There is no upside on that peice of ground. Whereas if FOG had continued to sit on the sidelines, the farm out number wouldn't have been as high probably, but FOG would participate in the upside.

Doh! I forgot the POQ "forgot" about a bond payment that could basically bankrupt the company unless he sold out for a ridiculously cheap price! .

ITguy, Thanks I didn't see that!! Well, more delays! I'm sure it won't be the last! I guess it's not just TBN and Origin that have these kind of issues!

Frack me. We were already at the US equivalent of under $.17 US and dropping. And yes, , TBN will probably drop more before this buyout. POQ sold this company for the same price we traded at regularly at times BEFORE we had great results on wells, and less than half of what we were at before the moratorium. Yet, as I said, the same people that told us how much better a position FOG was in than TBN are now telling us how this is a great deal. SMHL. On another note, shouldn't we be hearing any day from Empire/Beetaloo about their flow test results?

Hmmmm so what I got out of this is POQ says "what's the problem? These shareholders got a 20Pct premium on the price which is about a third of what it was 8-9 years ago! What are they complaining about?"

Where was POQ at the AGM talking about the money for the bond? Did he mention that? Did I miss it? Why was it not brought up that we needed to come up with this money by Sept 30? Why was there no plan in place? Where are the POQ supporters?? Where are the TBN bashers? Where are all those who constantly told us how much better a buy Falcon was than TBN??? Have all the problems TBN had disappeared? I've been saying for awhile we were still 3+ years away from a buyout unless it was a lowball offer. Many told me no no- it will be very soon. Probably after the flow results or farm out. Now many of those people are saying "yes, the lowball offer is great and TBN is a much better co than FOG".

I don't necessarily think this is NOT the way to go. My problem is the super low valuation that was given to FOG by TBN. And please don't tell me TBN shares have gone up! Let's see what they are when the deal closes.

If FOG was caught off guard about having to raise the money for this bond then I don't care to hear another word about what POQ did as CEO. That alone would be enough to say he is a complete incompetent, should hang his head in shame and he was forced to negotiate w a gun to his head. And if true I hope BS finds a way to completely leave him out of everything!

Interesting that while POQ was giving his speech at the AGM about how much FOG could be worth, he was already in negotiations for this deal. Not that he could say anything directly but he certainly could have mentioned an early sale BEFORE the flow results and farm out was a possibility: It's clear that POQ gave up on running FOG and just wanted the big payoff he's getting from TBN.

I also noticed that the news releases' hypothetical questions contained the question;

"Why do now vs in 2-3 years"?

While that's also a question, a more relevant one might have been, "why do now vs after the flow rates"?

I don't think there's any way to stop this transaction and I'm not worried about the short term stock price (although it's very possible TBN could end up at $20 as $30 by the close of this deal) but still fairly confident I'll get a 2x or 3x in a few years. Not a home run but a solid single or double for what will be 11-12 years .

And hardly any trading in the US.

Cam- exactly right. POQ has a duty to the shareholders of FOG. The fact that this merger may make it easier for TBN to find a farm out partner is not relevant, even if it is for the greater good. He should not sacrifice FOG for that greater good.

BTW, what happens if BS decides he wants to farm out a piece of his acreage and now TBN owns part of it? Does TBN sacrifice itself to BS? I'm guessing they will. These 3 companies will be one at some point, controlled by BS. Then he will set his sites on Empire (or whatever the new name is).

I'm also interested in those who were recently calling for at least a 10x bagger from FOGs recent $.10 US share price who now seem to have given up on it. FOG had the ability to NOT spend any money, to sit on the sidelines doing nothing (which I am on record as saying was POQs greatest accomplishment) and let DW, TBN and Empire prove up the Beetaloo. Yes, it would have taken a few more years but would have cost us very little. The same liquidity that TBN now provides us and the flexibility to raise money will also make it easier for BS to take over TBN- or to take it private (most likely IMO). Then you may see it sold for a huge premium- but we won't be there l

Also for those who are excited about TBNs rise (I am too), there is zero guarantee that it will continue to rise or stay this high. It could easily drop down to the $22 level again and we will have basically merged at a slight premium.

Newt. Even $100 TMB price is equal to about $.65/FOG share. Certainly much better but nowhere near the $1 many were hoping for. And given the many advantages that FOG had over TBN (which I believe you were touting the day before this announcement?) I would have to think that FOG would have done better by waiting. And again, look for TBN to get bought up by Sheffield or friends at a discount.