Member Info for Longknife

Harford,

The variation here is the cash portion. If it's being used to pay off the Russian, we could subtract his shares from the Apx 1.1B FOG shares. I was talking about the stock swap portion. Conversely we could add in the $23M to the 202M and divide $225M US by the 1.1B FOG shares and get $.2045 US. Either way, .184 or .2045/share? Both are terrible prices to be bought out at!!!

$31 * 6,537,000 TBN shares = $202,647,000

$202,637,000/1,100,000,000 FOG shares = $.18 US/share

Newt. Even w TBN at $31, that equates to about $.18/share for FOG on the stock swap. Is that where you dreamed of and wanted the buyout of FOG to take place? Of course it looks like a good deal for TBN- they stole us!!

Why do the deal now?????? That's what I want to hear. And please don't say, "it makes it easier for TBN to do a farm down". That's not FOGs issue. We are giving up the opt in/out clause and now will be responsible as part of TBN to come up with future cash. When I said $.30 US was a likely buyout number for FOG I was told that was way too low. $1/share was the magic number. A 10X at the time. Now we are at $.13 US and people say "we still have upside w TBN". Well we would have had upside w a stock purchase at $.30 too. Or at $1!!!

Why do a deal now and not wait for the flow rates??? Why not sit and let the beetaloo be proven up by others?? Would FOG be worth less after more wells w good results?? Remember at the AGM when POQ said shareholder overwhelmingly said no to a hypothetical $100M, $200M cash offer? And for those of you saying that we can now ride w TBN (even though we've been told for over a year now how much better a buy FOG would be than TBN), do NOT be surprised if TBN is taken out and we are left out of the deal.

Oil,

The only problem with the "POQ did the deal now to move along monetization more quickly" theory is that there will be no more Falcon after a buyout. POQs job is only to maximize shareholder value for FOGs shareholders. Anything that happens after a buyout will be because of TBN and their management. POQ will have nothing to do with it as CEO. I'm not even sure if it would be legal for POQ to do a deal like that even if he had the best of intentions. And given the way he had been talking at the AGM it sure sounded like he was thinking of a better buyout price. Something is not adding up to me. I'm looking forward to hearing what explanation he has for this deal. I'm also looking forward to hearing from all the people who held up POQ as a master negotiator and if they feel he did a good job negotiating this deal.

Frack me. I think you are right. It is a number of TBN shares deal so it can fluctuate. At a certain point however, there needs to be a date of record and I think as that date comes closer, the two share prices will align at whatever the market thinks is a fair price. There won't be the arbitrage oppty there is today if you could swap shares at that rate today.

Oil- exactly right. FOG is now capped unless we get a competing offer. $.21 Canadian is about $.15 American $ I believe. The mkt doesn't believe the deal will go through or they'd be buying right now at the $.13 American $. (Or just better places to make money) I disagree about this being a good deal though. There was zero reason to do this deal now. I could see companies telling TBN that they didn't want to do the farm out with FOG in the deal but that's not FOGs issue. That was on TBN to fix. We had 6 months to a year to wait to see flow rates. What is a reason to do this now???? POQ is doing it for his own reasons IMO. I've spent the last couple of years listening to the pumpers tell us how much better of a position FOG was in than TBN and now we will part of TBN. Look for Sheffield to take over all of it soon. And I believe we will NOT be able to stay in the deal at that point. Could have invested in NVDIA and been worth hundreds of millions during the same time frame (yes, I wish)

Bird,

Unfortunately, I believe you are absolutely right. I can think of absolutely no reason to sell this company now, before the flow rates before any farm down. I would bet big money POQ will end up with either a cushy job or a big golden parachute. To me, this looks like a rollup. TBN buys falcon, and then Daly waters buys TBN, or takes it private or merges- whatever. This has been the worry for a lot of us. I would again but that if Sheffield takes over Tambor Ron, there will be no option for the common shareholder to stay in the deal. POQ could've done nothing, (his best move) and let this play out. See what the flow rates were see what the farm out came in at. Instead, he chose to sell now. Why?

FOG Up a little less than $.01 in the US. Should clearly be an arbitrage opportunity here but the market isn't buying it yet.

This is a possible upside. Could force someone who was sitting on the fence to make a move. Unfortunately it will most likely still be a low ball offer. That $1B Hope is looking very unlikely.

Have not digested all of this yet but certainly doesn't look good at this point. I always said I would take $.30US over the last year in a heartbeat. It appears we won't get close to that. I also am not surprised that POQ made a deal here and I can't wait until it comes out what he's getting out of this. Any deal done before a farm out was going to be a low ball

Offer and any farm out done before the flow rates from the 10,000 fr lateral wells would be a low ball offer. Now it appears that FOG shareholders can either take their meager return (if any) or really settle in for the long haul and hope that TBN can become a successful company or wait for TBN to be bought by Sheffield or his friends. Oh and the same pumpers that have been telling us for years that TBN was in a much poorer place than FOG, and how FOG was the much better buy and how smart POq was to keep us separate from TBNs issues? They will now begin to tell us how great it is that FOG has been bought out, how great TBN is and how much of a genius POQ is for doing this. (Remember the last meeting where POQ was telling us how so many people were going to be interested in FOG and how these were such exciting times? I guess this 19pct premium is what he was talking about.

JMHO as always. This is not what I was hoping for when I saw the news release of the headline this morning.

Newt,

That's interesting. Is it "by the end of 28"? Or "by 28"? Let's hope that this will all be decided profitably for us by the end of 2028!

That would certainly put off a long scale delay by TBN but they could def hold off until DW drills? POQ has indicated that that won't be until probably 27 I believe. I'm not sure that benefits them in any way but if a big co comes in on a farm out deal, it certainly might make sense for all of the small cos to do the minimum if a big co was going to go full speed ahead. Just thinking more out loud.

805,

That makes more sense to me as far as fracking only the one well than worrying about letting it sit. It could just be the money. You make some good points and I tend to agree with you here. As far as the criticism, I don't let it bother me. People like B2B I basically laugh off as he has been wrong on every single prediction he has made over the last few years and still wants to hold himself up as an expert. He's not. And neither am I.

As far as some of the other pumpers, some like to make it personal and get very defensive- I don't get it but whatever. Others bring up good points and I learn something every once in awhile. The fact is this has been a terrible investment for a very long time. I'm confident that eventually it will pay off as a good (not great) investment. I HOPE that it will be better than good but.... Anyway good luck to all.

Newt,

Yes, I heard what POQ said and I will defer to people w more technical expertise but given the market is going to want to see some full length wells (imo), I'm not sure again why it doesn't make sense to frack at least more than one. And if they have problems fracking the first will they frack a second one immediately? It seems like it will be a lot more money to have them come back to frack than to let the wells sit an extra six months since we will already have two wells sitting for quite awhile. And maybe TBN just doesn't have the money to do it. That makes more sense to me.

On pt 3 you misunderstand. I'm talking about the farm down. Why do the farm down (if it happens) before the full well flow rates? He intimated it was possible that it would happen before the end of the year which would be before the full flow rates. Maybe it is as simple as TBN doesn't have the money.

As far as a low ball offer, POQ nixed (or he said the crowd did) a $150M and $250M cash buyout offer but then said that maybe a stock swap offer would be different. I would consider anything below $.40/share total value a low ball offer.

One thing I could see happening is that at some point TBN may sit on the sidelines a la FOG and let Daily Waters and a new farm out company prove up some more of the beetaloo. Not a bad strategy but probably would add more time to the timeline.

805,

I'm not sure we could end up w stock in another company without a buyout? But frankly, I'd prefer stock in a major like Shell or Exxon or whoever, (as opposed to a TBN) instead of a cash buyout. Then we could sell some, keep some- avoid taxes etc. I do think that we will probably see a decent return on this if we can avoid a lowball takeover from Sheffield or anyone else. Eventually. I still think we are 3+ years away.

I was also struck by POQs positive attitude but I don't think anything new was said. Most of the meeting was rightfully about TBN and Daily Waters and what they have done and will do. I don't think there is anything groundbreaking there and I left thinking of three things.

1-timelines given by CEOs that are not involved in the process are virtually useless. Timelines in general are often useless. Last year we were told we would have two 3000m wells drilled and fracked w 30 day flow rates by 1Q 2025. How many did we see? ZERO. Now we're being told that we will instead have ONE drilled and fracked w 30 day flow rates by 1Q 2026. We will see if even that happens. We had to renew the option to do the reverse split this year because we rightfully didn't do one in 2025. We were told when it was announced that it was likely in the 1H of 2025. We were told it would be a good time to do it because POQ thought we would have an increased stock price by then. We didn't and don't and now POQ is talking about "now it's a good time to buy more." My point is that he has no idea what's going to happen.

2- why are we only going to only frack one of the three new wells and not even the old well that has supposedly been fixed? POQ spent time talking about batch drilling and how that saves money, so why only frack the one and then have to bring everyone back in 6 months or so to do the others?

3- there was talk of a farm out happening sooner rather than later. If a farm out happens before the frack results of hopefully a 3000 meter well happens in supposedly 1Q 2026, then we will know Sheffield is working his levers to get someone in at a low price. I can't see any reason why TBN would do a farm out before those are announced?

Overall, I am still cautiously optimistic for FOG to be a decent investment in 3-4 years. It's been a terrible investment so far but hope springs eternal. BOLTA

Wet, no I've always said that I think $.30 is probably the buyout number that Sheffield will shoot for but always hoped for more. I was actually going to take quite a bit off the table at $.20 on the well before this last one if it got that high and was possible to sell some large amounts. Obviously it wasn't. Nor after this well- and I wasn't expecting any increase on these results. I do think that if we can avoid a Sheffield buyout at a low number that eventually, if everything goes well, that we can get somewhere in the $.50-$1 range. I think that's probably 3+ years away. I also don't think we will see much in the way of gradual increases- maybe a little but not enough to buy or sell. I could be wrong- who knows. I am not optimistic for any short term gains but think ultimately, as you say, we may wake up one day with a decent offer on the table. I'd love to see the $5/share price someone recently mentioned but I think there is little chance of that. GLTA

B2B, and yet, you have been wrong almost every single time and I've been correct about almost every single development. IMO, You are a pumper- which is fine since I believe you are probably POQs challenged little brother. But you have to at least take a look at the facts before you make your ridiculous statements. Now yes put me on ignore if you like as it will make it easier for you to continue to blindly pump this stock without as many people pointing out how you are always wrong. And it's $.30- that's my number where I will take some off the table if it's possible to do without collapsing the stock price.

Hahahaha. Even B2B has toned down his ridiculous pumping and declaring every development the "catalyst that will monetize FOGs holdings in the next six months", and now talking a year to 18 months out. (I guess those 90 day flow rates on the short well didn't change the price huh?). It really doesn't matter what FOG does now. TBN, Sheffield and the new farm in partner will develop the beetaloo. POQ just needs to sit back and not screw it up by doing something stupid like diluting the stock. Take advantage of the one good move you made and continue to sit the next few out while the people "that can...do". And then try to negotiate a good buy out. Unless hes announcing a buy out bid, I am not even mildly interested in what POQ says at the AGM because it will be the same stuff he's been saying for years. FOG will have very little to do with the developing of the beetaloo. We know that, despite what he says, he's not interested in marketing this company so Just wait and in a few years we hopefully get a worthwhile buyout bid.

Yes, POQ has done a nice job in getting others to spend money. He's like the kid who inherited a valuable asset and keeps selling off parts of it to fund his lifestyle. Unfortunately, the great majority of that money has been wasted and what he has NOT done is make any money for his shareholders. In fact he's lost a lot of money for them. Don't tell me how we could be bankrupt, etc. His job is to increase shareholder value and he hasn't done it. Don't tell me how this is a "different kind of investment". Everyone here got in this to make money and no one here can say they thought we'd still be here in late 2025 at $.08. The opportunity cost has been enormous! The opt in/out was his greatest accomplishment. Yes we will hear all the pumpers saying we're only 6 months-year away from finally getting our payoff- same as they've been saying for years and years. (Although even Newt is conceding we're probably at least a year away from any movement). The bottom line is this won't move until others do the work we can't do. Hopefully TBN, DW, Empire and the new farm in co can hurry it up and prove up this acreage. POQ will have very little to do with it. Even POQ said DW prob won't be drilling until 2027 and a farm in partner even later. Years away.

Wet,

I'm not sure what you're getting at in your first paragraph. We know Falcon can participate at up to 22.5pct. I was asking about the timing of how they have to commit or not commit. As far as trying to "screw FOG" over - no- not in that sense. However, FOG brings absolutely nothing to the table when it comes to TBN, Daily Waters or any future farm down participant. We are simply the co that owns the rights to a piece of what they are all working to get while we sit by and watch. Sure we will be contributing our share of the expenses but that's it. We are a junior partner and probably nothing more than an annoyance to them. We mean nothing to them and stand in the way of them making more money. Any opportunity to get rid of us and they will take it. The tens of millions of dollars at stake that you mention confirm this possibility, not exclude it. Sheffield and probably any farm down partner will be hard core businessmen who will take any opportunity to screw FOG if they can. BS has money in FOG but it's a sunk cost- if he can get what FOG has cheaply or by screwing FOG over (or TBN for that matter) he will do it. I'm sure POQ realizes this already and hopefully he is actually working on preventing different scenarios that may happen down the line. Only time will tell. This has been a terrible investment to date but it still might turn into a decent one by the end of the decade if the stars align and things fall into place. Hopefully the companies doing the work can make things happen. The next 3-5 years will be interesting. JMHO