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POODS. That's great! Maybe you can prop up the share price some! But why do you think this is a good decision?. I don't necessarily disagree- there wasn't a great set of alternatives, but how do you think this is going to help the FOG shareholders? And does anyone know whether or not a buyer of FOG could go back and up its pct in these wells?
B2B , which part of what I write do you find to be "rubbish"? Esp since I've stated it's my opinion. You seem to gloss over the fact that the market clearly dislikes what FOG has done- as well as what Tam has done- yet you only mention Tam. What do you disagree with?
Dprussky,
Without a doubt! There may or may not be a pot o gold at the end for POQ but his life along the way is pretty darn good! Why change it up? Like I stated, he's probably locked up the status quo for another 4-5 years. I said before the flow results were released that good or bad I'd be looking to cut my position down 30-50pct. Unfortunately, we had good news and I was hoping for at least $.20 US. My mistake. The old adage, "buy on rumor, sell on news" has never been truer. Unfortunately this stock can not even hold $.10 now. Any selling of over a few hundred thousand shares in the US will drop the price even further. The only plus side I can see is that w the good flow results (and assuming the 90 day flow rates stay good) the stock is worth SOMETHING, although I don't know what. I'd love to hear some better scenarios as to what is going on here as I am naturally pessimistic when it comes to penny stocks- and especially FOG.
Newt,
One glimpse of something positive happening might be scenario number 4 on your list. Possibly Sheffield might now feel "why are we carrying Falcon and I now need to come up w some more cash"? "Let me get someone in here". The problem is, this is where someone comes in and buy FOG cheap. Hopefully at least a double from here today but it could be much less. If a new buyer can't come back and say "let me in at the full 22.5pct", there is no real incentive to buy at this point.
Frankly, I don't think today's news is that terrible- given the options. Apparently, 22.5% on the existing well and 5% on the next give us a total of 10% on the three Wells or 72,000 acres. Roughly 45% of what we would have at full participation. The alternative was raising money at these low rates which has been my fear for the last several years. This allows POQ to continue to collect the salary He has enjoyed for so many years. There is no rush for anyone to buy falcons portion at this point. It's share won't produce much for years. When the sale finally comes, I'm thinking more like 4 to 5 years, possibly it will be in the $.60-$.80 range. Any attempt, in my mind, to sell in the next couple of years will result in a sale with a slight premium to today's stock price. Sadly, I think $.30 is now out of the question. Why would someone sell out the money at this point to buy falcon unless they can get it super cheap? Just my humble opinion as always.
Saying the stock will go for 2-3x the current share price or in Other's opinion, 5-6x the share price doesn't mean I think someone is going to say "hey let's offer 2-3x what the share price is today." It's that that's what I think it will be sold for. What the "fair market value" will end up being. Also, the difference between 3X and 6x the current stock price is about $300M. Not a huge amount. I hope I'm wrong and that it is $3B! Whatever the "fair market value" turns out to be (if it's sold), I am sure most here will think it wasn't "fair".
Wet,
Sounds great! And I hope that's the case! However, when you say; "Falcon's currently depressed stock price doesn't even come close to reflecting the fair value of a 500-meter SS1H well - much less when the pilot program kicks off with its first two 3K wells to better prove commerciality.", then surely the entire acreage is worth way more than 6-10x the current stock price?? We will see if there are buyers that come forward- I don't think POQ has done any groundwork to line up buyers given the well numbers work out. If they don't or if BS exerts enough pressure on his friends, POQ could be sitting on this stock for years and years and hopefully we will be able to receive some dividends at the very least. Which buy the way, might not be the worse thing for BS's interest in Falcon- which is sure to grow. JMHO. I guess we will see what happens.
Newt, I have never seen a CEO or BODs NOT entertain an offer for 2-3X their current share price. Remember, the market has built in the potential it sees for FOG right now- we may not agree w it but it is what it is. I would be thrilled if someone like Inpex came in w a bid for 800M but they certainly don't seem interested yet. Yes, we can say "wait until the 90 day flow rates" or "the next two wells" etc, but we have already shown we have no idea what the catalyst will be to move the stock price. We all thought it would be the recently announce stellar flow rates. We were wrong. As far as rather seeing FOG go bust trying for a higher price in the next 18-24 months (which seems to be the new talking point as far as timelines), vs take 2-3x the amount........I disagree and will take the 2-3 bagger.
Newt and Smallfish,
I still think the most likely scenario is Sheffield and his friends taking FOG private at a multiple of 2 or 3- not 10. Some will argue it is worth more but most shareholders will be happy to take the 2-3 bagger and be done w this stock. I don't see any white knights coming in to save the day either and there is ZERO retail interest. Maybe it will get bid up some if an offer is made but again, I don't think it's going that high. JMHO
Merloid- been patient for Apx 8+ years. Not as long as many but long enough. $.30 would be more than a double which would give me about a 10pct annual return here- not what I was hoping for but also not down! Schemeil, yes we need monetization but will that happen? I see a scenario where Sheffield and friends acquire more and more shares quietly and take this co private at a relatively low number. I could be wrong of course- and hope I am- wouldn't be surprised. I stated that I didn't think we would see much of an upside here with good results and u fortunately I was right. I didn't think we'd see a downside though. There's a reason for it and I don't think it's good for us. Sorry to be a negative Nelly, I really hope I'm wrong.
Newt,
We better hope the 90 day numbers are good. We know the stock goes down w good numbers, with bad I'm sure we'll see $.05 again! I would take a $.30/share buyout right now no problem. Forget $1/share, I don't see a scenario where the retail investors get that- hope I'm wrong.
KMJ,
While this may seem like "the very very very best time to get into FOG", the market has not agreed so far. The mkt feels "maybe" sometime in the future. And while the next 6,12,18....months may look exciting, don't be surprised if it turns into the next 36,42,48....months w FOG sitting some wells out. Again, POQ has no incentive to move quickly until he's ready to retire.
Harford- and looks like we will be sitting on dead money for awhile. Can't even hold the current price. Pretty sad. I think 90pct of us here have to admit we have no clue when it comes to this share price. We all thought the great results would lead to a higher share price and we were all wrong.
Wet,
I watched that as well and I'm guessing he bought those shares over the last few weeks hoping for a quick pop to $.20 or above and when he didn't get it he sold. I'm surprised he was able to sell that many so fast without an even bigger drop.
B2B
"It also makes sense that if you raise new money in tranches, the second tranche almost certainly could be raised at a higher price"
The problem with your statement is that we heard the same thing about raising money THIS time if we had good results on the last well. We did, and now we're still talking about "not this time but next time".
The same about "the big money setting up and taking notice""