Member Info for Longish

'What would be the indictive dividend percentage going forward …. 9 eu cents = say 7.94p ..'

If the SP recovers to 150p (7.94/150) * 100 = 5.3% or
If the SP recovers to 180p (7.94/180) * 100 = 4.4%

'we have a smaller % than when we started'

If this is true, the irony is our portfolios today are sensitive to small tweaks rebalancing and transaction costs we have been discussing for days

TLW
Yes its painful. Not sure (please correct me) but the UK seats were allocated to the other member states pro rata when we were leaving. The seats we have been given to stay means we have a smaller % than when we started. A mess unless it was intentional and for our own good?

'Tell me one EU rule you don't like. Bet you can't."

Lee Evans made me laugh about energy efficient bulbs. By the time they have lit the room, you been in, done what you needed and left...energy efficient light bulb to self 'was there somebody in here just now?'
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2083760/Virtually-extinct--pearl-light-bulb-banned-Europe--price-replacement-soars-174-cent-year.html

'Are we moving from away from Brussels telling what to do and towards Washington telling us all what to do ?????????'

Sorry about the headline, wasnt fully focussed whilst messing something else up ... I wouldnt buy a 5G Huawei h/set until its all over though.
Technology being used to rationalise capital diffusion between china, asia, us and eu markets. Still focussed on the movement of goods and trade tarffs. I guess 5G services will be 'ubiquitous.

Hi Poker
'I wonder if we will see own branded 5G handsets emerging or if they are committed to contracted volumes of iphone, samsung, huawei etc.'

And as is by magic, Vod drops 5G Huawei handsets!

http://www.lse.co.uk/ShareNews.asp?shareprice=VOD&code=nk5y39j1&headline=Vodafone_drops_Huawei_handset_from_5G_launch_preorders

Hi Jack,
'I agree about not crystallising losses'

Yes, I meant staying in the market in whatever mix (my biggest holding is Vod...) and not going 100% back into cash. I have also done the anger and regret :-( IMO the tide will turn for Vod. Could be July as events are still coincident with the ECB asset repurchase programme I posted a while ago. There was an inflexion point in July which impacts across EU member states.... I think we have been blindsided by credit rating agencies and Vods role in the programme. Now alot of the finance reengineering is in execution, it would only take Fitch or Mooodys to tweak for the new div policy and the SP could rise (imo holding for now).

I guess the elephant in the room is will US crash and take us all down another step. If I could time that I would go 100% cash and buy the bottom or miss some more paper losses!...

Anyway thats where I am now and not making any quick decisions on VOD.

Hi Jack, All,

I gues the transaction cost is important if trading frequency is high or if transaction volumes are small. If I was a programmer, I guess I would have a quadratic equation that minimised my trading cost and maximised my gain over a number of volume thresholds and price points. I guess it would then depend on the time period such a programme ran for.

In reality my trading style (performance) is skewed heavily toward the price movement rather than low volume frequency.

I would be interested if anyone could recommend a programe or a tool (SQL etc) that has access to realtime metadata at low cost and fast ?

Hi TLW,
I agree and I am similarly balanced. Given the market conditions, I wont risk my 35% cash holding because I drawdown living expenses from the pot rather than 'crystallise' a loss at a distressed price. How long the markets will take to settle I dont know, but EU capital markets clearly executing with Vod/ Liberty in the real world and July could be the watershed imo. My paper losses are targeted to improve over the initial cash position had I held all my investment in cash...

Hi Pokerchips,
'It will be "like having a lane of the motorway all to yourself," he said, speaking at an event in London.'

I know what he means but sounds expensive until you think the motorway was built on the back of overly expensive 3G spectrum back in 2000. Although 5G spectrum is in the media as a burden on Vod/ EE cashflows, it is c80% cheaper than the 3G spectrum. With greater bandwidth, transmission efficiency etc it should feel like using your own lane on the motorway. I guess what will differentiate Vod from EE is customer experience. I wonder if we will see own branded 5G handsets emerging or if they are committed to contracted volumes of iphone, samsung, huawei etc. I can see service becoming cheaper through lower priced handset with increased service utility and data service revenues continuing to grow.

All imo. GLA

Dan, Jack, TLW et al
'I am baffled by all this', me too. I lose money less quickly holding cash LoL..

I guess it depends how frequently you trade. The price movements on VOD mean the transaction cost is the least of my problems ;-)

Interesting to see how the price develops now Vod isn't buying 14.5m shares every day

Because I have been averaging down/ trading/ rebalancing, I am holding more shares than I originally wanted. But I said from the start, will Vod still be trading in 5 years time?, I believe so.

The liberty deal is a great opportunity. The telefonica wholesale deal will dilute the margin % but absolute contribution can be very large. I said before, on average, global telco revenues are reducing but data revenues are growing within that decline. Wholesale revenues in europe are more bouyant/ growing and the telefonica deal, and any other similar broadband deal, can generate alot of cash. Its the nature of regulatory economics to achieve marginal cost equal to marginal revenue, deliver welfare benefits, new products, new investment etc. NRs social contract with the regulator, liberty deal, wholesale revenue and cashflow growth can turn on cash in big steps (rather spending alot to get one more consumer...eg spring investments done now) all add up for me as a long term hold with trading opportunities along the way, rebalancing etc.

Al imo. GLA

'Has anyone else noticed this negative narrative, being propagated towards telecoms companies, with minor problems hyped up to appear much bigger than they really are?'

Yes. Unfortunately, most well balanced research runs to 10's and 100's of pages and usually only telco professionals, lawyers etc reading them. OFCOM manages 500+ pages on each topic. Its understandable why people get the wrong end of the stick, but why this trend of negativity, I dont know

LoL, must be my age, and you are right. I guess my point is even boards have a replacement cycle and dry out etc to be replaced. Whoever wanted the old stuff when there is next gen to choose from? I bet the next Prime Minister will be crowing about a smart 5G factory employing newly skilled local people exporting product to the rest of the world..

Hi Poker, I meant huawei, regulatory, investment, trump type delays etc. I agree the build will have real world delays. I think of the build in terms of geograhic information such as dense urban through to rural and rail, road and motorway corridors etc. The network is made up of large and small cells of varying density interoperating within Vods network and between other operators network. Cells expand and contract depending on usage within it, people travelling through to and from work, power bandwidth ratios, transmission etc. The telco network engineers are a hidden gem in the planning, running and optimisation of 2g - 5g networks.

Interesting article. That was in March. So Vod bowing to debt and cutting the div must go some way to Fitch, Moodys et al improving their ratings. Perhaps on liberty clearance and FY20 cashflows laid out more clearly in Q1 or... H1 (they werent clear in the results day webcast last week)...

Thing is, there is a natural replacement cycle. Diodes, transistors etc in kit constantly being replaced. A country will be left behind if it doesnt move to the next gen tech and financial performance will be relatively lower. The UK is avoiding any delay to 5G and Vod is going live in July as per the link embedded in the article. Evolution, not revolution.

The more complex elements of the financial strategy in place. We might see a new CEO (we wont know until the RNS). Is NR another Gavin Patterson?. NRs apology of a 'social contract with the regulator' may be enough ....all this cheap debt comes at a price to equity, hopefully priced in now. BT SP under pressure with Jansen and no div cut...!

I guess we may see changes in credit rating now that Vod has acted in favour of debt investors. In theory a less negative outlook and SP lift at some point? Certainly saw the SP drop on Moodys downgrade.

https://www.vodafone.com/content/index/investors/debt_investors.html#