Member Info for Longish

The weekend FT has an article on sell in may. Anyone following the BB will remember we discussed it and the conclusion is that professionals attending summer sporting events dont have to sell because they can take their (Vod) mobiles with them and continue to trade...LoL.

The FT adds another contribution from Mark Twain..'October: this is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August and February'...

GLA and have a great bank holiday weekend if you are lucky enough to be living and working in the UK!

Support 138
Resistance 147
DYOR and GLA in these closing weeks

https://www.marketscreener.com/VODAFONE-GROUP-15867071/charts/

LoL yes you are right. I bet you get it wrong tomorrow ;-)

Mikey
I guess you lost the bet today. We finnished in the blue!?

Moniman, Dan,
Its often the case that monitoring companies and prices and good memory triggers interest in a share when a spreadsheet, stats analysis etc becomes unwieldy and useless.

I keep a series of watchlists as an aid memoire and every now and then opportunities come up like Telit ..Divs are my income. I cant afford to get it badly wrong and wait for a recovery. However I got caught out by Vod although it pays a div and I am cost averaging, trading, waiting etc to recover capital

BoD salaries and PLC politics are the same everywhere. Vittorio, Sorrel, OECD spin execs etc are being churned out and sovereign interests being operationalised. Huawei is good example of lower economic cost vs pan sovereign political interests. Need good experienced telco BoD members to manage that kind of pressure/ challenge. Nobody wants a BoD member who doesnt know how the factory works...

Hi Dan, 'DONT PANIC'...I am wearing a particularly dark pair of glasses in the run up.

Slartibartfast is alive and well

Moninan, wow well done.

How did you choose the switch. Luck, technical, news etc?

Hi Moniman, 'is that what's known as 'Fake News'?.. well Douglas Adams said time is an illusion, lunchtime (bedtime) doubly so... LoL

For a bit of fun with a serious note, 'what is fake?'.
We all have some methodological assumption behind our research. Mine are associated with positivism and structuralism where positivism supports working with a highly structured methodology and observable social reality, such as market structures, mobile service parameters and their relationship to financial performance. While structuralism helps me identify the unconscious nature of collective phenomenon where environments and technology categorise people and analysis provides a description of structure which is not a conscious machination of the teller, for example, BB perception of market structure, service parameters and their relationship to technology, financial performance and regulation.

Collecting data from many sources allows me to triangulate and identify the principal component driving SP performance, which I think is interest rates..

Brokers increasingly positive on Vod...209p or 210p targets for their sausage machines
01 May JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 209.00
26 Apr UBS Buy 209.00
25 Apr Credit Suisse Outperform 210.00
25 Apr JP Morgan Cazenove Overweight 209.00
18 Apr Credit Suisse Outperform 210.00

...definitely a change in media sentiment..

This recent article says 'market jitters' until May 14 but the balance has moved towards more favourable news since the start of this year..

http://www.cityam.com/276201/why-vodafone-still-backed-hit-250p

Jack, 'VOD remains a hard call as to how much is priced in re possible divi-cut & what happens if it isn't cut?'

I think if the FY reported on May 14 has evidence of cost control and managing cash flow, the SP should lift. At the end of H1 NR said 'the dividend would be unchanged this year .. the board would consider higher payouts once debt returns to the lower end of a target range'.

A good outcome would be flat div in June (as forecast) and then a return to div growth based on the final debt situation and cashflows from Liberty in the next FY.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-11-13/vodafone-keeps-dividend-flat-to-rein-in-debt-after-liberty-deal

'Hey Warren, look at Vod. If you don't, Phil Hammond might kindle interest in China this week. Huawei kit in EU networks etc'

Hi Jack
'Added SBRY yesterday to my other holds, so I've plenty of action elsewhere'

Yes I picked up SBRY after the CMA announcement too. Not many as I am still hoping Vod comes good.

Good that Vod closed the week holding above 140 and fingers crossed for no bad news in the FY results etc
GLA

OFAH, I am with you on that. LC will make it worse if you listened to his advice and sell Vod, buy Deb and hold till 18p...

OFAH, I think you must be bored. SP pattern reminds me of the rhyme of the ancient mariner and Vod hangs like an albatross around our knecks :-)

I will be ignoring it. A 'meets guidance' on May 14 and div in June to look forward to...imo

'Sell in May' with working link
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4255903-sell-may-empirical-evidence-market-adage

Thanks boix,
I remember that and the BB was alive with discussion. But shortly after that, HL published this 'RBC Capital Markets reiterates underperform with a target price of 144p'
https://www.hl.co.uk/feeds/apps/sharecast?id=28554648

Today I cant find RBC on the usual summary of Broker forecasts....strange?

H,
'Sell in May'
This article concludes "there is seasonality in market returns across geographies, asset classes, and long time intervals" but over an observed sixty-year period, investors who sat out the lower returning semi-annual period (sell in May) would have sacrificed returns...dyor

Https://seekingalpha.com/article/4255903-sell-may-empirical-evidence-market-adage

Its a mystery...I cant find a RBC broker forecast anywhere LoL.

Support 138
Resistance 147
50 day moving average 140
https://www.marketscreener.com/VODAFONE-GROUP-15867071/charts/