Member Info for Longish

All positive broker forecasts today. All recommend buying, just 1 neutral.

What happened to RBC forecast. Seems to have disappeared off the radar?

NR continuing to 'sweat the assets' rather than building new. This is good because the operating network costs remain 'fixed' and increasing contribution from customers flows through to the bottom line.

I guess FTTH also fits with any [EU] content sharing initiatives following the liberty acquisition. Takes market share off the incumbent as Sky and TalkTalk have done with BT successfully.

Spanish economy recovering and along with Italy should be firing on 4 cylinders by 2021/22..

http://www.lse.co.uk/share-regulatory-news.asp?shareprice=VOD&ArticleCode=2u2973bx&ArticleHeadline=EXPANDED_NETWORK_SHARING_AGREEMENTORANGE_IN_SPAIN

Some nice charts showing the auction participants interests in 5G.

Current bidding at €5.4Bn is sensible compared to 3G auction in 2000 which was 50Bn!

https://www.marketscreener.com/1-1-DRILLISCH-435990/news/Germany-s-5G-spectrum-auction-resumes-after-bids-slowed-before-Easter-28462739/

OFAH
I topped up again at the close.
Support 138
Resistance 147
50 day moving average 140

https://www.marketscreener.com/VODAFONE-GROUP-15867071/charts/

Gerry, yes I had the same thought. Phone usage now well and truly part of gross domestic product. Global economic growth still being forecast at c3.3% and Vod earnings before interest tax depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) growth for the group is expected to be maintained at around 3%.

Not sure how the SP will react to delivering guidance but momentum seems to be strongly correlated with global economic growth given Vods global footprint..

FCF is a key measure as the market will automatically infer spectrum affordability etc. Hopefully more information shortly on the cashflow streaming from the liberty assets and capital investment plans around integration etc

Ofah, ..'My plan is to get as many as I can afford and hold until June for the dividend'

I agree and topped up again this morning

I guess the positive uk financial turnaround this year comes with a non financial cost...EE didn't fare much better.

Vod has opted for AI type customer service while EE is promoting real people customer service. Maybe the AI is not liked by the average WHICH user...?

Costas, if this were proxy return from the $22Bn purchase of Liberty Germany/ East Europe, Vod combined entity must be worth >€60Bn or SP >€2.20!?

RT will be a target for higher taxation at end of its cycle therefore div cut and the RT SP collapse... lol.

Maturing EU QE assets then dont need to be reinvested as tax revenues increase. Vod has locked in cheap debt and uts SP rises back to 6% div...

Hi Johnson, I would be if it was non performing debt. But Vod has corresponding business assets generating cash to service interest and built/ building a portfolio of business assets that can be utilised as required on a 30 year+ debt repayment glide path.

Fleccy, Jack,

"VOD IDEA lost a reported 35 million subscribers in just 3 month"

I agree and don't see this being an issue in an efficient market...

Customer analytics for a new entrant show customers leaving an incumbent generally have low profitability or are not profitable - decision is generally based on lowest price.. The incumbent has economies of scale, content, network quality etc which it services to maintain a higher price.

The new entrant picks these customers up and either has to migrate them up a value proposition to become profitable or use them to test/ support the build of their early stage network with a low risk of quality complaints etc. But eventually the new entrant has to compete on quality, content etc at higher prices to payback the investor.

In the meantime, its easier and less expensive for Vod Idea to retain profitable customers than acquire them from another network. Each incremental month you keep a customer is another month of customer contribution so discounts, incentives, new content etc is offered to lengthen the customer profit lifecycle. These incentives also attract new customers to Vod Idea. Vod Idea maintains/ grows its profitability

The new entrant fulfils the regulatory objective of encouraging competition, innovation, investment with welfare benefits etc in a market and those operators who respond purely on cost reduction, exit the market, whilst those who innovate and generate new products move forward.

LoL. I dont disagree

Thanks Jack,

Consensus seems to be Vod will recover but we wont really know any more until post FY reporting.

Knife edge from my perspective but I am hoping NR can count cash in and out and maintains FY guidance...

….underlying organic adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (Vods preferred profit measure) to grow around 3% and for free cash flow of around EUR5.4 billion (before spectrum costs).

If needed, I think incremental spectrum costs can be met by proceeds from individual country mast/ network share arrangements and there are at least 27 of those..!!?

Best of luck and GLA

Dan, AW,
'They aint not never dropping at the close! Good finish'

A linguistics professor is giving a public lecture in Glasgow, and explains that there are some languages and dialects where a double negative makes a positive, and some where a double negative is merely emphatic. But there are no known languages where a double positive makes a negative. And a voice from the back of the room says "Aye, right!"

AW,
'Let's see if the price is 136 come close of play. Just hanging onto 140 as I type this.'

Well 140 held which is pretty much the 50 day moving average, yawn...!

GLA

AW,
Christine Lagardes speech on the uncertain global outlook starts with a quote from Mark Twain..
“In the spring, I have counted 136 different kinds of weather inside of 24 hours.”
She says it feels like the global economy is going through the 136 different iterations, from synchronized growth, to synchronized slowdown. Lagarde goes on....'and in all of these efforts, we need stronger international cooperation. We need those policymakers who I would call “the women and the men for all seasons,” in order to resist that uncertainty that we have at the moment....(Shakespeare)..in order to deal with the “uncertain glory of this April day".
I think the hedgefunds are unable to decide which iteration Vod is given its global and local footprint...

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2019/04/11/tr041119-transcript-managing-director-christine-lagarde-press-conference-2019-spring-meetings?cid=em-COM-123-38637

Here is the link to last years annual report and the financial workbook (excel). Tab 6 in the workbook shows mobile customer numbers and tab 7 fixed broadband by country
https://www.vodafone.com/content/annualreport/annual_report18/index.html#downloads

Here is a link to a document which aims to help the Body of European Regulators for Electronic Communications (berec) improve its understanding of 5G in terms of the key technologies and services that may emerge, and the obstacles and enablers for success, with a focus on the near term, specifically the time period from 2018-2022. In particular, BEREC would like to understand the implications of 5G for market structure, market dynamics and competition in the telecommunications market and other related markets'...
https://berec.europa.eu/eng/document_register/subject_matter/berec/reports/8008-study-on-implications-of-5g-deployment-on-future-business-models

Here is a link to a painting celebrating dividend day at the Bank of England 1859..3% yield LoL
https://www.britishempire.co.uk/resource/dividendday.htm

Did anyone see the Andrew Marr show last Sunday. Andrea Leadsom finally read the draft agreement (agriculture and fishing). But the document is constructed to allow politicians to add what they want to discuss and agree with each EU state. Andrea added Industry 4.0 …

'Industry 4.0 is a name given to the current trend of automation and data exchange in manufacturing technologies. It includes cyber-physical systems, the Internet of things, cloud computing and cognitive computing. Industry 4.0 is commonly referred to as the fourth industrial revolution.
Industry 4.0 fosters what has been called a "smart factory". Within modular structured smart factories, cyber-physical systems monitor physical processes, create a virtual copy of the physical world and make decentralized decisions. Over the Internet of Things, cyber-physical systems communicate and cooperate with each other and with humans in real-time both internally and across organizational services offered and used by participants of the value chain.(Wiki)

Finally, at the end of the Andrew Marr show
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr1sXlXSJQQ

Topped up today 138.52p...

Interesting OECD research....Parcels trade: The good, the bad, and the ugly

...'International dispatches are growing at nearly twice the rate of domestic e-commerce, and are expected to grow by about 25% annually until 2020. Digital platforms, express delivery companies, freight forwarders, and postal services are critical components of this evolving parcel eco-system'...

https://www.oecd.org/trade/parcels-trade-good-bad-ugly/?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_content=Read%20more&utm_campaign=April%202019&utm_term=demo

Vodafone accounted for EUR 1.2 billion in total bids for 11 lots

https://www.telecompaper.com/news/german-5g-auction-passes-eur-4-bln-in-bids--1288135?utm_source=headlines_-_english&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=09-04-2019&utm_content=textlink

Orange and Vodafone in talks to share Spanish 5G networks
https://www.telecompaper.com/news/orange-and-vodafone-in-talks-to-share-spanish-5g-networks-report--1287530