from a broker report this morning10 Apr 2014 10:06
• WHAT’S THIS ALL WORTH?
• The 50-170mm boe range at Pil equates to 31p-106p/share;
• Upside from the sidetrack/Bue could add ~90p of value;
• Solberg/Rodriguez is probably net neutral;
• In addition, news from Butch East is still awaited where the company has exposure to up to 260mm bbls (worth 11p-68p/share risked/fully unrisked);
• Again, I would draw investors to the flip side of the argument – what is your downside from here?
• With a core NAV (ie producing assets plus cash) of 86p, plus contingent (discoveries yet to be developed) of an additional 43p….you can now add ~15-20p for Pil as it is a proven discovery with contingent resources;
• SO ~145-150p of Core+Contingent vs a share price of 140p this morning…with a sidetrack that could add a further 70p of upside, plus Bue which could add ~20p, plus Butch East which could add 68p – all within the next two months;
• On top of this near-term interest, we believe that the broader investment case for FPM remains incredibly strong: you buy FPM for a genuinely diversified exploration portfolio which is well financed, with cashflow being just a small contributor to balance sheet strength: $250M undrawn RBL facility; Norwegian facility of £110M equivalent; UK tax losses of £75M; ~£40M cash;
• Fundamentally undervalued with multiple catalysts on the immediate horizon, I would be aggressively adding at current levels. STRONG BUY