Member Info for Londonwolfie

Did typing 11658.61% for an oil major's return not make you think that it was maybe your maths that was to be questioned? It is flat over two years. Sareum is up 860%. Simply using a two-year return - not cherry picking dates

1/50. Before everyone jumps on here to spout their doom and gloom, I just want to say that I have absolutely no problem with that, and they get my vote

Hi Krone - just listened to the Wainwright recording and you are quite right. The comments in the broker note I got do differ from what Dilly said in terms of timing (at 21 minutes in). The indication from the Wainwright presentation is MMB + '515 first and then heme malignancies & solid tumors in 2023

Not sure if it has been mentioned yet, but I was going through my work inbox today and I had an email from one of the brokers I speak to which was entitled 'Tuesday in San Fran'.

Anyway, it talks about Sierra, stating Phase III MOMENTUM is on-track with data by February in a press release and conference call. The database is not yet locked so they can't nail down the exact timeline.

It goes on to say that after they report this phase III data (so next month), the company plans to continue its pipeline expansion with the '515 (BET inhibitor combo with MMB) and '737. "Co also plans on expanding '515 and/or '737 in heme malignancies & solid tumors (likely starting w/ ISTs)."

So just to point out that based on SRRA timelines from a conservation with their main broker earlier in the week, we could/should hear something about 737 next month

You do know that Sierra is a Canadian firm don't you?

So you want me to email Chris Grayling? Daft sod awarded a post Brexit ferry service contract to a new firm with no ferries so not sure what help he’d be here

Glenmere. I have to disagree. You are massively over complicating things. How many of the shares in issue are in nominee and how many in certificated form? Suspect 99% minimum are nominee. There will be an admin cost but no more than the admin costs associated with a dividend payment for example.

Odd lot shares an issue? Not really. So the maximum shares ‘unconverted’ in a 10-1 consolidation would be 9 old shares. At 5p, this equates to a whopping 45p maximum. Many companies say “odd-lot worthless” and I’m sure odd lot holders wouldn’t be too bothered. Or all of the odd lot get sold in the market, and distributed like a dividend (payments between 5p and 45p). Cumbersome and will cost a few quid but not much of an issue.

As for the third value leakage, I can’t understand what you are implying. A 1% of outstanding capital or £1m investment, for example, gets you the same economic interest before or after consolidation.

Once again buzz you are completely right.

It’s not like less that five months ago the market agreed to give them £24.7m at more than 86% of the current valuation now is it?

nothing to do with the 40 for 1 reverse split then?

Not sure of reason why or even if it is 737 related at all, but Cantor Fitzgerald have today reiterated their Overweight on Sierra, lifting their target price from $33 to $39

Peel Hunt is better positioned than any other investment organisation that we currently have a relationship with in terms of position in the market. In the medium term, whatever period that may be, they will inevitably be part of the Sareum team when it comes to any potential valuation of the business. Imagine if GSK appointed Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan to do their valuation work and negotiating; no disrespect to Derren Nathan at Hybridan but that would not really be a fair fight, so makes sense to bolster our corporate finance team and Chris Golden at Peel Hunt is the likely man for this side as a dedicated healthcare M&A and advisory broker.

For me though, the short term target is getting institutional shareholders on the register. Not through further fundraising necessarily but buying in the open market. Peel Hunt has many more doors open to institutional fund management houses than Hybridan ever will and has been rated number 1 small and mid-cap research house for the past five years in the main industry survey.

The analyst, probably Miles Dixon, will publish an initiation report in due course. It will be extremely unlikely to be anything other than positive but not guaranteed (check out Derek Terrington’s Can’t Recommend A Purchase when pressured to put out a Buy on Mirror Group). Good upside to a fair value or price target will see market maker’s lift the price on publication but the real value happens after this.

Peel Hunt’s research lands in the inboxes of institutional analysts and fund managers. Peel Hunt sales guys and analysts will broke the story. They will try to persuade the fund managers to buy the stock. They may even arrange for management to meet with these potential investors on a non-deal roadshow. This wasn’t something where Hybridan were particularly strong; so we have upgraded from mid-table championship brokers to the team that has won the league each of the last five years.

Just using Polar Cap Healthcare Opportunities as an example. It is a £1.5bn fund. They take a 0.5% weight in their portfolio, and at current prices, that is them buying 130m shares in the open market or 11 day’s volume. You don’t need to get many of these guys involved and hey presto, you have a demand driven boost to your share price which is a win win for shareholders - we make money and any bidder realises they can’t get it too cheap.

The other thing that Peel Hunt brings, as well as the benefits already mentioned, is access to a much greater and more diverse institutional client base.

So we have a much better investment story to tell than 18 months ago, and we now also have access to a bigger book of deep pocketed investors with the potential to become shareholders to tell this story to.

My small cap team speaks to Peel Hunt. Would be great to see an invite pop into my calendar to meet with management

STREAN SAR is an anagram of TRANS ARSE

Merck reported three hours ago mate

https://s21.q4cdn.com/488056881/files/doc_financials/2021/q2/MRK-2Q21-Earnings-Deck-(1).pdf

Given quite a few people still believe that the exercising of warrants in the short term is actually a good thing, may I just thank those people in advance for buying the extra shares I shall be selling on that news.

The company gets extra cash which is good news and at least that would imply that the HNWI has already sold his two lots of shares received in June into the market, and hence those sales are absorbed in the price. But all else being equal, it means the HNWI has cashed in which will be a clear negative

The first rule of secret club is ...............

At least Jeff Beck still made it in the industry - so every cloud has a hi ho silver lining

Death, taxes and killing a bulletin board with accounting chat at 10pm are the three certainties in life.

I apologise

Take your point. We’re not a manufacturer and don’t have or indeed need marketing and distribution capabilities, as there are plenty we can outsource this to. But they need paying. So if the product gets sold, our equivalent of a licensing revenue is discounted before we record it as revenue.

Because that has already deducted manufacturing/distribution etc. then it certainly will have high 90’s gross margin when it hits our accounts. The bulk of items are taken out before we record it as revenue so, in effect, we have a really high gross margin - like a software company since we are outsourcing our IP effectively - but gross margin still has tax etc.

I’m just putting the anal into analyst.

Sorry for being a pedant but 80% is a gross margin and earnings per share (and hence p/e) is calculated from net income not gross. Usual range for a pharma’s operating (net) margin is high teens to mid 20’s.

Don’t get me wrong - still massive upside.