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Thoth2 - you can't really apply a p/e ratio to a single product. That is why they are a useless valuation tool for biotech and pre-clinical development companies since it also assumes recurring revenue streams which do not happen with patent expiries and biotechs, unlike large multi-product product pharmas, have no history of navigating a patent expiry cycle.
That said, you would tend to look at the net present value of a particular revenue stream over the life of the patent. So, in the case of Tyk2 in Covid, if we said the royalty equated to a flat $600m per year for, say 12 years, and apply a 10% discount rate per year as a risk adjustment, we get a total NPV of $4.26bn. At today's exchange rate and number of shares in issue, this pretty much near as dammit comes to £1 per share (as you say, for Tyk2 alone in Covid use).
Plenty of assumptions to play with in that calculation, but does show what the potential could be on any one of a large number of prospects.
You wouldn’t have time to have a vaccine. You’re too busy posting on bulletin boards
It closed at 0.95 bid 0.97 offer with the bid moving up (from memory) from 0.93 at 16:26ish.
My SIPP is valuing it at the 0.96p mid-price
Presume you mean RNS?
DJ (Dow Jones Newswire)
BUS (Business Wire)
PRN (PR Newswire)
MTN (MT Newswire)
Probably more
China is further along to adopting hydrogen as a potentially green transport fuel than most of its peers. Investors
don't need to buy Chinese stocks to gain exposure.
While the rise and fall of U.S. truck startup Nikola transfixed Wall Street, China sharpened its own ambitions to
industrialize electric big rigs powered by hydrogen fuel cells. Last month, Beijing promised to spend $2.5 billion
in 10 cities over the next four years to improve the technology, demonstrate projects, scale up operations and
develop policies for refueling stations and green hydrogen.
Two likely beneficiaries in the West are Canada's Ballard Power Systems and a small U.K. company called Ceres
Power. They have teamed up with leading Chinese heavy-duty engine maker Weichai for different types of
hydrogen fuel-cell technology.
Ballard's proton-exchange membrane cells have powered big trucks over more than 50 million kilometers, the
equivalent of 31 million miles, nearly three-quarters of them in China. The company's joint venture with Weichai
recently opened a factory in Shandong Province that can produce 10,000 fuel-cell heavy-duty engines annually,
with room to expand.
The heart of Ballard's cells are made in Canada at a recently expanded facility. Gross margins hover around 20%,
but it promised at an investor day this week to cut production costs by 70% over the next four years by improving
the efficiency of product design and manufacturing and scaling up orders.
Weichai has joined with Ceres for solid-oxide fuel cells. Primarily used for stationary applications like data centers,
the London-listed company says its novel design can be used in transport. The Weichai partnership gives that
claim credibility, particularly as the Chinese company increased its equity stake in Ceres this year and is testing its
fuel cell as a range extender for its electric buses.
There are plenty of risks when investing in maturing technologies such as hydrogen fuel cells. Rival designs could
achieve a more rapid adoption, while relations could deteriorate between Beijing and the companies' home
nations. As Nikola has shown, investors are prone to getting ahead of reality.
Shares in both Ballard and Ceres have more than doubled this year, but that looks modest next to the quadrupling
of peers such as Doosan Fuel Cell and Plug Power. A focus on industrial partnerships rather than consumer
products has kept the Canadian and U.K. companies at the fringes of the stock market's electric-vehicle frenzy.
Joining with a Chinese company in a market that won't evolve entirely according to competitive forces should be
an advantage. Ballard and Ceres may be hydrogen stocks that can do more than roll downhill.
Ceres gets a mention in the Wall Street Journal today - that would be the most likely reason for today's strength I would think
Unfortunately, I think the China bus trial delays (Covid-related) as well as limited licensing updates overshadows a decent enough report today
Nice intra-day turnaround for Nel on the back of the Nikola news
No news to announce so let's pass the time ****ging off the management/board/communication*
(* delete as applicable)
Last week, we had a trading statement and an investor presentation.
This week, with a share price drifting, people are whinging that the Chairman doesn't retweet as often as he should. Give your head's a wobble - I am sure he will when we have something more concrete worth retweeting about.
In the meantime, the sun is shining. Go to a beer garden. Take a walk. Play a round of golf. Wait patiently for news.
I'm taking myself into LSE quarantine for a month (at least) which I appreciate is no loss to anyone.
Sinovac Biotech (or the wholly owned subsidiary, Sinovac Life Sciences) hasn't been listed on NASDAQ since early 2019 I think. Having said that, it isn't listed on the Shanghai Exchange either!
no probs - knew my Registered Representatives exam in 1992 would come in handy one day
no - you would most likely be wrong.
The trade took place at 8:05 and 30 seconds and was a sell for 1,725,568 shares at 0.8636, as it states. The bid was 0.86 at the time. It was delayed reporting at 10:05 and 30 seconds - i.e. reported two hours late which the market makers are allowed to do.
This somewhat counters the 1m bought at 08:00 and 14 seconds at 0.9025 and the 1m bought at 08:12 and 7 seconds at 0.9075, both of which were reported an hour late.
It is pretty common to see shares where the volume is outside of the quoted shares on either bid or ask to have delayed reporting so market makers can try and offload/cover if they are long/short.
Nothing sinister going on
always thought Tim was a Blue Stratos kind of guy
it's just the keyboard warriors who know everything there is to know about how the pharmaceutical industry works.
Always makes me chuckle when people say that we are going to get left behind by everyone else - as if drug discovery/development is a purely homogeneous product and it is all about who shouts loudest.
GLA
Q10 is a supplement you buy at Holland and Barrett.
10-Q is the quarterly filing requirement for US quoted companies with the SEC
meant to say - lucky to have low average.
And also, I was only jesting - have not sold any shares for over six years I think it is now
nope - aim to fully derisk at some stage but certainly not yet - luck to how average so want to sell my 2.5m trading shares to give me a free ride on the remaining 10m. Still a long way from that
right - that is staggered sell orders for my 12.5 million shares placed at 0.99, 0.991, 0.992, 0.993, 0.994, 0.995, 0.996, 0.997, 0.998 and 0.999.
Nothing to do with my exit strategy - just driven by my desire to pee off baserite for being a numpty
So Pokerchips, you are basically saying that valuation has no bearing on the shares. What tosh.
People may ignore valuation temporarily in times of stress but it always comes back to this. Yes - things are challenging right now and likely to get more challenged. We know that. Low interest rates means that net interest income will remain under pressure for the foreseeable.
However, we have a bank that could be overly provisioned, or at worst, is a long way to being fully provisioned, is extremely well capitalised - which is good l/t for dividend prospects once the powers that be allow them to pay one - and is trading at half of its asset value. The share price may well not perform for a while, but this is the time to accumulate for the longer term in my view and not try to eke out a final few pennies of any potential market drop.
Apologies for my pedantry Stoney. The document is the 10-Q, which usually (but not always) is filed at the same time as the quarterly results and press release. It has been known, but shouldn’t, to contain price sensitive information; that should be contained within the press release statement, which is the equivalent of an RNS here. The 10-Q generally provides a greater breakdown of the line items in the financial statements. Sierra is expected, but not confirmed, to release interim results on August 6.