Member Info for Londonwolfie

The Board reiterates the following observations in relation to the Offer timetable, as established by the UK Takeover Code:
• DNO has until 27 January 2019 to improve or otherwise change its Offer, should it wish to do so
• DNO has until 10 February 2019 to achieve sufficient acceptances for its Offer to become unconditional
• If the Offer at any time becomes or is declared unconditional, DNO must keep it open for acceptance for at least another 14 days

couple of things on your mental maths Thoth.

Royalties are paid on net sales, not gross sales.

I have assumed that your 4.4bn market is sterling rather than dollars, else we'd be reducing this figure even more.

You can't use the 10% discount rate as you have since that calculation assumes payment into perpetuity rather than factoring in patent protection/expiry - and with a market that size, there would be generic competition.

But even if you were to assume your 2.8p of royalties per share from, say year 3 to year 15 (patent expiration), then at a 10% discount rate, the net present value would be 18p.

Just being pedantic rather than mischievious ;)

come on Thoth - I appreciate that you see yourself as the resident cheerleader and as a shareholder in Sareum (and Sierra) I find some of the stuff you post of occasional interest. But seriously.....

Sierra got momelotinib back at a fraction of the price after the broad range of indications was narrowed and therefore no good for a company the size of Gilead. It's in Phase 3 - it cost a whopping $3m for upfront fees for Sierra. It will come to the market way before our compounds even enter Phase 3 if remotely successful and be an absolute cash cow for Sierra - who knows, maybe it will give them enough for your 28p takeout stuck record or belief that XYZ multi-billion company will pay a 3500% premium for a £22m company.

It's not a dilution of focus, in my opinion. Far from it. Indeed - if they are doing more work on JAK1 and JAK2, which they are with momelotinib, surely that can be of interest given our ownership of TYK2. Who knows, maybe the potential cash windfall from any success here gives them enough to pay that 3500% premium????

new Q4 presentation on their website. Lots of focus on their Myelofibrosis programme given its Phase 3 but a nice section of SRA737 at the end of the document.

only at a 54% premium to the previous day. Shares were at a low of $1.17 on 19th August 2017, so in under 14 months from trough to take out price, just a mere 20-bagger (or 2051%).

Hi Warthog. The gyrations are driven by hedge funds. Unlike our lack of institutional holders, Sierra has a large hedge fund shareholder base. What was most interesting about yesterday’s spike was the volume of shares. Second biggest this year for SRRA and likely a hedgie going long. Probably an announcement in next couple of days. Don’t think it is as leaky as some people on this board suggest and certainly not as dodgy as some recent postings have suggested. Hedgies drove the spike earlier this year as well. A number taking positions above declarable levels. Part of their investment strategy is to let people know they are long to hope that drives buyer interest. The other thing they have in their favour is proper institutional research analysts e.g. Jefferies, and they present at industry conferences. They know the value of getting their story out there. Hope that helps. I’m long SRRA. Longer SAR

what makes people seriously believe that a takeover premium of 666% (from today's mid-point) is justified? Rarely does a premium exceed 100% in biotech world.

What would prevent an acquirer hiring an investment house to scoop up shares in the market over the next several months (around about a third of the company shares have changed hands this year so acquiring a notifiable interest and then adding a little more wouldn't drive shares up too much if done sensibly) and then launching an offer even at 2p. They get the potential royalties from CHK1 and the rest of the business?

Even if they launched a takeover at a 150% premium to the current price, it would still be just £50m, which would give them TYK2 as well.

So why do people think we can negotiate an upfront payment well in excess of this simply for licensing? Sniff of a takeover comes in and hedge funds/small cap funds pile in - which may give shares a supply/demand pop upwards, but they would not say no to a takeover (whereas private clients might think an acquirer was getting it on the cheap) as they simply care about a short term performance boost.

As I say, I am not deramping - just interested in the thought processes of people.

Thanks

shares somewhat all over the shop in pre-market now the suspension been lifted - but currently indicated at $2.27 - up 24%.

they have also obtained a debt facility to, amongst other things, helping to remain well capitalised to continue the development programme for SRA737. With this facility combined with existing cash, they believe to be sufficiently resourced to deliver on key milestones across all three programmes.

* $195m in milestones

I see they have moved into the JAK inhibitor arena paying $3m for a drug from Gilead that is already in phase 3 (with potential $195 in milestones).

we all held for Morden enough time but hopefully will end up laughing all the way to the Bank.

Back in those days Silver, it was called ProNai. It's main development drug at that time was '2258, which had shown promising early trial signs. Then in June 2016, a set of data wasn't so good - causing the company to suspend the programme.

not that we should expect anything new to emerge but Sierra are presenting at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference at 1330 our time on Thursday. There is a link to the webcast on the Sierra site but not sure if it will be accessible to non-Jefferies clients on the day.

Sierra released Q1 results and held an analyst briefing on 10th May, which caused the initial move upwards. Since then, there has been four institutional investors announcing that they have taken a combined 11.1% stake in the company. So I would argue that no news isn't quite right. Encouraging though for CHK1 for sure that at least US investors are feeling optimistic and putting their money to work

I’m in both. Sierra raised just shy of $50m in March so hopefully are okay for cash for now although they will be burning through it

expecting a hell of a lot of good news then ;)

12. More share options for Tim, John and Stephen

they are raising $40m with an over-allotment allowance of up to 15%, so up to $46m, at between $2.25-$2.30. this equates to between 17.4m shares and 20.4m shares. They currently have 52.5m shares outstanding - so between 33% and 39% dilution. Proceeds are for funding SRA737 as well as their other development product SRA141 ( a serine-threonine kinase mainly focused on DNA replication/DNA Damage Response but they think it could be complementary to SRA737 by inhibiting both Chk1 and Cdc7 simultaneously), not for any additional acquisition.

I see Jefferies raised their PT on Sierra yesterday from $4 to $4.91. I'm not allowed to quote directly on here from a broker report as I've had them taken down by admin in the past. So my interpretation of their note is as follows: They are saying that the update provided important safety validation for 737 which they think will ultimately be the key differentiator vs. LLY's prexasertib. They remain enthusiastic on 737's potential as a best-in-class DDR agent and continue to believe the company and 737 are "under-the-radar". Next key dates: April 2018 AACR PARP combo preclinical update, Q4 737 mono efficacy update, 737 gem combo status update, PARPi combo ph I/II initiation in prostate and submission of their IO combo triak design